Bold Prediction: Obama v. Mccain will be closest election in U.S. history

[Politics_Guy25]

269-269 looms large but I don't really see it. Just based on the polls, I would expect a national popular vote winner of 0.5% with maybe a 350,000 popular vote spread. Perhaps 4 electoral college votes will seperate the two candidates in the electoral college. All national polls indicate a race that is incredibly tight. The battleground states are split pretty much evenly between O and M. The gold standard NBC/WSJ shows this as just a 1 point race! Both parties are incredibly energized and bursting to go to the polls to support their candidate. Of course, Mccain is no longer the candidate running for president. Palin is.

From a pure political junkie standpoint, this is fascinating. Get ready for a 3 a.m. election night (morning?) call by the networks.

I further don't expect the debates to really break the race wide open either way. Close all the way to Nov. 4. This is where Obama's massive ground game will make ALL of the difference IMO.

[FrenchieCat]

1. I see an Obama landslide myself......

[BrklynLib at work]

7. From your keyboard to the ears of she who can make it so...

[Politics_Guy25]

15. BTW, Senator Obama is doing all he can to win this race

I'm incredibly impressed with how he's been running his campaign since the convention onwards.

[ProSense]

2. My prediction:

No it will not be.

[BrklynLib at work]

3. I hope andpray fervently that you are mistaken. A close election will be the neocons' to steal.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Election will be essentially over by 10pm EST

:-)

[Politics_Guy25]

10. XD-If Mccain is going to keep it close, I guess I might as well enjoy

a too close to call race for the entertainment value as much as I wanted Obama to be up by 15.

[darius15]

5. If it's a tie, it shows how stupid Americans are

look at every issue that matters, coupled with the GOP President and his clone.

[d_b]

6. ground game will make all the difference

which is why voter suppression is all the more important.

believe it. they'll try and gank this one.

will our leaders let them?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Think Kennedy-Nixon Was The Closest In The Pop Vote

Don't forget Gore beat Bush* by 500,000 votes...

[salonghorn70]

24. You Are Correct

It was about 100,000 votes.

[tedoll78]

9. I crafted a picture today for the 269 scenario..

(Of course, I think Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado - New Hampshire is the most likely tie scenario.) :P

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. 269-269 Just Goes To The House And We Win -No Supreme Court

~

[tedoll78]

14. I know.

It's taunting Scalia with a close election in our favor. :P

edit: It's kinda morbid.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Here's My Prediction- 49% Obama 48% McCane 2% Scattered

Almost like Kennedy-Nixon...

[tritsofme]

26. That is no guarantee of a win.

There will be tremendous pressure for states to cast their vote based on how the state voted in the election, ect. ie. to favor McCain.

And if I've learned anything over my life, it is to not be surprised if and when congressional Democrats cave.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Then You Will Really Have Civil Unrest

That defeats the whole purpose of the Constitutional scheme the founders envisioned...

That's not the reason for the civil unrest...

[tritsofme]

28. Not really. They will say that the state delegations can cast their votes however they want.

For instance if there are 3Ds and 2Rs in a state that McCain carries handily, there will be tremendous pressure on that delegation to cast its vote for McCain in the House.

At least I imagine they would try this, I can't believe that they would just go gently into that good night.

[abumbyanyothername]

22. I know you are just speculating

but I don't see any way that Michigan is red and Florida is blue.

Of the toss up states, I put Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Virginia and Ohio more likely blue than Florida.

That said, I think the ground game brings in all of those, plus NC, ND, SD and maybe even GA (thanks to Barr).

I really, really, really hope that AZ goes blue just to put the pin in the balloon.

[bigdarryl]

11. BULLSHIT!!!!! Obama in a landslide some of you people need to stop relying on polls in October

Carter Reagan was tied until the debates

[msallied]

13. Um, no.

Don't believe the media hype.

[blue sky at night]

16. Democrats outnumber repukes.......

and his massive ground game is only going to result in a Tie?? We had better pray you are dead wrong.

[secondwind]

18. hopefully, states like OH and FL won't get stolen from us..............

I have faith that with a Democratic Governor, OH may have a shot at going Dem this time.

[Wapsie B]

19. In the words of Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, BULLSHIT!

I don't see it close at all. The dismal turnout at the gop convention is a percursor of future events. Palin's a stage prop, red meat to pacify the most gullible conservative fundies. McCain excites no one, not even in his own party. He's getting his Bob Dole run.

[Tutankhamun]

20. 2000 & 2004 show us that close elections go to the GOP. We need a landslide.

[Sherman A1]

21. My Prediction and bet with A Repbulican

Obama wins 50 States......

We have the soft drink of the winners choice riding on this one.....:toast:

[terrya]

23. I predict Obama will get around 300

This is terrya, who knows absolutely nothing about political analysis and predictions. But looking at the map, that's how I see it. electoralvote.com has Obama at 281 right now. I think that will pretty much hold, increase slightly after the debates and everything basically settles down to stay.

[Borgnine]

25. If Diebold has any say in it, it will.

With just enough margin of error for the Supreme Court and media to swing it to McCain.

[TxRider]

29. Not just fascinating but historic

I'm loving this election.

First someone my own age is going to be in the whitehouse no matter what, my generation has arrived. :)

Second we'll have either a black man or a woman in the whitehouse, neither of which I was beginning to think I would ever see in my lifetime. Historic indeed.

And it'll be a very close race, maybe historically close.

I'm not going to be too hurt no matter who wins. If Obama wins it'll be historic, and really shake up the entire world. The implications are very far reaching and diverse. If McCain wins we will still have a majority in congress to keep him in check.

The next 4 years could really be something special.

[tentroy]

30. I dont believe it

4 million new democrats have registered. Bush vs Gore was close I don't think it will be this time and if we get screwed again. I think there will be riots. Which is what we should of done in 2000. Who would of thought when we were doing so well in the 90s we could be here only 8 years later.