Polls look better today...

[Wetzelbill]

Of course, as always take polls with a grain of salt, however:

It mainly looks like McCain's convention made the more traditionally red states even more in his columns. For example, Rasmussen's national poll is tied up even, but their poll in Montana saw McCain jump to an 11 percent lead. (Not that you can give up on MT, as I said before watch out for some factors there like college towns, energized Indian reservation voters and popular Dems up for reelection like Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer.) Florida, a PPP poll, has McCain going from a 3 to 5 point lead. Still well within striking distance.

The big one is North Carolina. A SurveyUSA poll has McCain jump up to a 20 point lead.

Right now, it does look like the Red States just got a bit redder. In Gallup tracking, McCain is up, 49-44, Hotline tracking has McCain up by 1. ABC News/Washington Post had McCain up by two today, but I heard the poll coming out tomorrow has Obama up in that one. CBS had McCain up by 1. IBD/TIPP has Obama up by 5 points. And these are all from today, btw.

So it looks like McCain has had a bounce, but not one that will help him a whole lot, other than it makes some red states redder.

As it stands, in what matters, the electoral college, Barack Obama is still holding all the states that John Kerry won. He is well ahead in Iowa, and is holding onto New Mexico and Colorado. I believe that would give him the EC win. I'd say Iowa and New Mexico are going to go O's way. Colorado, of course is iffy. It looks like Virginia is essentially tied, McCain is a bit ahead in both Ohio and Florida, more in FL. Obama is holding solid in Pennslyvania. New Hampshire was slightly Obama, but some of these polls were taken before the conventions.

Right now, it still looks good for Obama, with McCain's bounce already peaked, and the Kerry states holding strong, Obama can gain some ground nationally and work on stretching McCain out thin in the traditionally red states while he works on some key battleground pickups. The debates should help Obama quite a bit. Also the polls also show that Obama is solidifying his base with some of the Hillary voting groups specifically women and the white working class folks who he supposedly had problems with. Possibly Biden has helped with that, I think anybody who has seen the vids of Biden working crowds in in Florida, Virginia, Pennslyvania etc would have to agree that he's an asset.

All in all, I am hopeful, wary, of course, but I still feel this is Obama's race to win or lose. It's not time to get complacent or disheartened. It's still a close battle any way you look at it.

[BrklynLib at work]

1. Thanks. Good assessment. I feel better now...

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. The red states got us into this mess, & have dragged us down

ever since.

[jgraz]

26. It's not the red states, but the red necks in all the states

I never thought I'd see this many deeply, persistently stupid people with so much power.

[darius15]

3. Good assessment but

If NC jumped to a huge McCain lead, it's likely there was some movement in VA. We will see as more VA polls come out.

States that I'm interested in seeing new polls from:
New Hampshire:
Pennsylvania:
Nevada:
Colorado:
Virginia:
Oregon:
Michigan:
Florida:

[Wetzelbill]

5. The Monday polls on Virginia showed little movement.

Rassmussen/Fox News had McCain up 49-47 and SurveyUSA had the exact same tally. PPP from a few weeks ago had Obama up by 2 points. Nate Silver said North Carolina looks to be a bit of an outlier, I would agree on that. Plus NC has Dole up for reelection, while Virginia is looking good with Warner easily up on Gilmore in the Senate race. Plus Kaine and Webb's victories in the last few years are good signs.

The new ones I saw on Michigan show Obama up by a few points. Florida has McCain up by 5, although Rassmussen has it a tie. Pennslyvania Obama was up by 2 in Rassmussen. Rassmussen has Colorado for 3 for Obama. Michigan up 1 for Obama.

[darius15]

7. So what youre saying is

VA: Leans McCain
NC: Strong McCain
Michigan: Leans Obama
Florida: Leans McCain
PA: Leans Obama
CO: Leans Obama


I'll take that anyday!

[Wetzelbill]

9. Right

I have seen Florida tied in Rassmussen and then up 5 for McCain in the PPP poll. That all could be in the margin of error for either guy. I'm thinking it looks good. And I suspect PA and MI are much more than just leaning for Obama. I also think with Udall on the ticket and with Salazar getting in 4 years ago, we have some interesting things going on in CO, so Dems might be a little more solid there too. I hope anyway.

[gratefultobelib]

4. I'm always grateful for posts like this!

[Curtland1015]

6. Going into the debates with a close race is all I was hoping for.

I think after the debates start, well pull away.

[Wetzelbill]

10. Kerry erased a double digit lead in one debate

And Obama is a much better contrast to McCain plus the direction of the country is going his way with Bush being so unpopular etc. My assessment is Obama is in a good position. Even with the Bin Laden endorsement which will surely come for McCain, I think this is still Obama's race.

[ellie]

8. I am watching Lou Dobbs

and he has McCain up 15% over Obama among independents. WTF?

[Wetzelbill]

11. I haven't looked specifically at the numbers

but yeah, McCain did grab more Independents this week. Indies are fickle though. They'll likely be swayed more by the debates than conventions. They flip-flop around to whomever convinces them on one day to the next before they officially go with somebody.

[Liberal_in_LA]

12. Thanks for the poll analysis

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. BUT !! People keep saying that the electoral vote view is obsolete

because most of it's been done before Palin speech.

And, it, like the nationals will catch up.

Please tell me this isn't true.

[writes3000]

16. But these state polls have been taken AFTER the Pub convention...

The argument you're referring to is about polls before the convention.

The newest state polls already take that into account.

[Wetzelbill]

18. right for the most part

maybe New Mexico or some states that are already traditionally Dem or Repub have some polls still out, but we basically have what we need right now.

[Wetzelbill]

17. yes and no

Most of the battleground states have had polling done since then. The only major change is North Carolina, which Dems didn't ever count in their column anyway. Basically, Obama still looks to hold all the Kerry states. He has Iowa wrapped up. New Mexico has steadily looked good for him, that poll is a key one to wait for. Colorado is still slightly Obama. And Florida, Virginia, Ohio all show close races, maybe slightly leaning McCain. Ohio probably leans a little more McCain than the others.

But right now we pretty much know that the Red States got a little redder and Obama is still holding on fine in the Blue States, while they are still close in the key battlegrounds. It looks like this election could come down to Colorado and New Mexico, or even Nevada. MT and the Dakotas are sleepers. Polling since the GOP convention only shows one outlier and that's North Carolina, while McCain did get a boost in MT. Basically, Obama has the Kerry states and Iowa and McCain is hoping to hold serve on the rest of the Bush states for the win. And we have almost all of the polling in those states already.

[Amonester]

32. The link for a day-to-day wrap (updated daily at 7AM).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Red states (temporary) bump.

EC still in favor of Obama-Biden. :party:

[Wetzelbill]

33. That's an ok wrap up

Nate Silver over at www.fivethirtyeight.com has the best run down on all of this, imho.

[bridgit]

14. Must I extrude all the hope around here...

Sure it starts somewhere, maybe with one footstep but it starts http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6992271&mesg_id=6992271 :)

[Wetzelbill]

20. that's an excellent post!

[bigwillq]

15. The polls will look great on Nov.4.

:bounce:

[Wetzelbill]

19. well that's the plan

Stan. :)

[cyr330]

21. yes

There is a really good article on Salon.com. I'm sorry that I don't have the link, but you can see their site and check under "politics." It was quite reassuring.

[Wetzelbill]

22. thanks for the info

I'll look it up.

[Wetzelbill]

23. kick

[progressoid]

24. "He is well ahead in Iowa"

Yer damn skippy he is.

[Wetzelbill]

31. I think that is a big story in this election

Because it frees up Obama to have a different path than the more traditional winning two of three in "Ohio, Florida, Pennslyvania" model we've seen these last few cycles. Obama essentially having Iowa in the bag gives him a chance to pick off a few other smaller states and nullify a losses in Ohio and Florida, it it were to come to that.

[kwenu]

25. That seemingly improbable 20 point lead in North Carolina smells...fishy.

[Tigress DEM]

27. Have to agree.

[Wetzelbill]

29. It's probably an outlier

You're looking at it being a little less than that anyway. Still a longshot for Obama though, at least I would say.

[abumbyanyothername]

28. InTrade

InTrade BHO PREZ has stabilized today after falling for most of a week. http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933

I look for it to start rising tomorrow and not to stop.

I trust people putting their money down more than polls.

[Wetzelbill]

30. Thanks for the link.

[backscatter712]

34. Gallup got called out today for monkeying with party ID percentages.

Maybe after getting a public black eye, they'll start adjusting their numbers to be closer to reality.

[Wetzelbill]

35. Gallup and a few others

All with McCain leading. So it's likely that McCain doesn't really have a lead over the margin of error in any poll.