1. ANALYSISIt’s certainly not the first time, and it probably won’t be the last. Virginia and Ohio have been swinging back and forth from one candidate to the other all season long. That’s why they’re called
swing states.
Both Survey USA and the new hybrid of Fox News and Rasmussen (lol, fitting) have Obama at 47% and McCain at 49% in Virginia. This is only a two-point swing to the right since just before the conventions. Here’s how Virginia has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):
Foxmussen shows Obama trailing McCain by 7 points in Ohio, and this is a 9-point swing to the right in the five days since the CNN/Time poll showed Obama up 2 there. McCain held a very slight lead before the conventions, so a swing to the right was expected. Here’s how Ohio has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):
Three other polls were conducted by Foxmussen: Obama leads by three in Colorado (a move to the left!); Obama leads by 2 in Pennsylvania; and Florida is all tied up at 48. Survey USA polled Washington and found Obama leading by 4, and PPP shows Obama leading by 1 in Michigan. Obama’s record for today’s polls is 4-3-1, not bad at all. But for the time being, Obama’s electoral vote projection falls 28 EVs today to 300.
Many of these polls are part of Obama’s Eighteen. The tracking for polls in these eighteen states as a group is now showing McCain with a slight advantage (see Figure 5c below). Not too surprising. What’s heartening, though, is that Obama needs only one-third of the electoral votes from these 18 states to pull off an Electoral College win.
Obama still maintains a lead in the popular vote count from the state polls. His lead has diminished to about 360,000 nationwide as McCain’s bounce is being seen in the states mentioned above. Obama’s popular vote count is higher now than it has been in a month (see Section 4 below), yet McCain’s popular vote count is at its highest point since last winter.
Both the Wigand set of states and Obama’s Eighteen drop about 2.5% today in trading on Intrade. Virginia and Ohio are both trading at 50.00 even. The biggest drop came from New Mexico, which fell 9.40 today to 65.00 (I couldn’t tell you why, it doesn’t make sense to me). New Hampshire and Colorado both fell about 6 points each.
2. NEW STATE POLLSColorado
Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida
Obama 48, McCain 48, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan
Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 2.9, 1147 LV)
Ohio
Obama 44, McCain 51, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia
Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 717 LV)
Virginia
Obama 47, McCain 49, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Washington
Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information 7. LINKS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls