Look...If Obama was up by 7 before the RNC....

[Franks Wild Years]

...and McCain is up by 4 (registered voters) afterwards, here's what the story really is:

A lot of people are simple minded when it comes to politics and can be knocked either way be a small gust of (metaphorical) wind.

Let us not forget that Kerry was down by 7 at this stage, Gore down by 6 *after* Bush recovered from the DNC bump. Reagan exchanged a tiny lead back-and-forth with Carter, before winning over the public in the debate and scoring a 10 point victory come election day.

Nothing is decided now. The 'undecided' low intellect voters have swung back and forth and can continue to do so. It's not inconceivable that one candidate or another can sway 7 or 8% of this block with a snappy economic message in the final debate.

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. I am not sure much of America has ever been so disconnected from reality before -

apathetic, ignorant, unread, steeped in mindless television, the attention span of a few minutues at most....all abetted by a media that no longer does it work (did it ever, one wonders?).

[Catch22Dem]

2. Gore & Kerry are not good examples

Did they lose? I don't believe so. However, the pukes were able to make it APPEAR close enough that the theft was pretty easy.

[Franks Wild Years]

5. Gore, no...Kerry, I'm honestly not sure. There was GOP skullduggery, no doubt...

...but I feel it's always been touch and go as to whether that actually swung the final result.

But either way, both faced a deficit amongst registered voters of greater than 4 points in similar surveys. If Obama ends up pulling off a similar swing to they, he wins. Even if he's five points behind on the 15th October but then pulls off a 'Reagan-esque' swing due to a crushing final debate performance, he probably wins a landslide.

One more thing we must remember: The 'last 60 days' swing has favoured Democrats in the last two elections, and the GOP were not nearly as reviled as they are now. If Obama gets the same kind of swing, he wins. If he doesn't, the US is a giant fuck up but right now I'm not going to call it one way or another. It's not close to being over yet.

[geek tragedy]

3. The Republicans will win the simple minded fools.

Because they know how to communicate with simple minded fools.

[Quixote1818]

4. 1 out of 20 people cause this. 5% of the population shifts one way and you have a 10 point shift. nt