Democrats ultimately finished better than they were polling at a similar time of year in 2000 & 2004

[Franks Wild Years]

On September 27th 2000, an LA Times poll put Bush ahead by 6 points, having overhauled Gore's convention bounce. He LOST the popular vote that year by .5%

Bush led by 7 following the GOP's convention in 2000. He won by 2.4%

I'm not attempting to say that the position is not precarious at present, but it can tilt either way. A lot - A LOT - will be decided at the debates, particularly the final one, which is one domestic issues. Key to most voters right now is the economy, and most favour Obama in that respect. If he taps into the concerns of the financially downtrodden voter at that final debate, in front of many millions of viewers, in a year like this it's the type of issue which could turn a 3 point deficit beforehand into a 3 point win come election day.

Finally, let's not forget the Reagan - Carter race. Now, I think most of us would agree that long-term a Carter victory would have been beneficial, but at the time it looks clear to me that Reagan successfully tapped into the ill-feeling many Americans had about the economy. His closing comment at the solitary debate was and is a thing of political brilliance. It's why an extremely close race - back and forth, up and down, generally with only a few points in it - turned into a ten point landslide come election day. It's why, I think, Obama has used a portion of said Reagan speech at some of his appearances lately, and I have a funny feeling he'll be offering up something very similar at the end of that crucial, final debate.

[Franks Wild Years]

1. Any thoughts? Anyone out there who thinks it isn't over yet, that the situation isn't....

..as bad as it could be?

:)

[Kdillard]

2. I am not freaking out at all because this was expected and I am sure

over the next few days things will change. The debates will play a factor. The only time I will be concerned is if we are in mid October and we don't have a lead. The electoral Vote count as of now is also what really concerns me and we look to be in good shape in that regards. If we can keep it good going into the next month then we are fine.

[inthebrain]

3. We usually pull ahead after the debates

Kerry evened up and went ahead in a few polls following the debates. He started peaking too late.

This year will be a little different.

[Franks Wild Years]

4. Exactly...

...I mean, sure, it's a big shame that McCain is in the lead right now but Bush had a similar lead in 2000 - Lost the popular vote. He had a bigger lead in 2004, and that margin was trimmed significantly. Furthermore, the fact that Obama can play on the economy late in the day this year at that final debate could be huge. It could be a massive game changer, just as it was for Reagan in 1980.