Zogby poll: McCain 4 points lead

[kelvinyany]

Source: Zogby International

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

Read more: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

[dennis4868]

1. what does it mean online survey?

does it mean anyone can go online and vote for their guy?

[BearSquirrel2]

22. It's called a voluntary sample ...

It's called a voluntary sample and it's worse than infotainment as it means absolutely nothing at all.

[Tesha]

58. Actually, that's not true for Zogby's methodology.

Properly controlled (using, for example, data from past elections and
current truly random sampling), there's no reason why Zogby's online
polling can't be just as accurate as any other poll *AND* provide far
greater detail about *WHY* people are making the choices they're
making.

Face it: with as many racists and religiously insane as we know exist
in this country, this one *IS* going to be close.

Tesha

[Teaser]

60. I'm sorry, but odds are you are wrong

This assumes Zogby has been able to accurately regress all of the population variables he records onto variables drawn from random samples and is able to make inferences about real population data from these regressions.
This also assumes that things like "self-selection bias" can be accurately predicted from other recorded variables so as to remove that from the data. We don't even know if that's possible, much less whether Zogby has figured out the solution.

He has shown in the past that this procedure is a recipe for FAIL. I see no reason to believe he now has made a major breakthrough.

[Honeycombe8]

2. Zogby isn't a reliable or valid poll these days. You know that. They predicted a big win for Kerry

Remember?

Look at realclearpolitics.com....link to ALL the national polls in the upper right corner.

You will see that McCain has either zero bounce or 1 bounce from the convention so far. And Obama is ahead, nationally....of course.

[Anexio]

19. I agree

As soon as I learned what "DU this poll" meant I knew that online polling means less than nothing.

What a waste of time and bandwidth to create and online poll much less participate in one.

[RedSock]

23. ummm, Kerry DID win

anyway, all the polls have to do is keep it close, say it's 50/50 -- then the voting machines (cough) will decide. and we all know which candidates they like.

[madmom]

25. That's why we encourage people to use absentee voting, in fact the people at

our headquarters says they are encouraging everyone they talk to to use absentee voting for just that reason.

[krawhitham]

51. not BIG

[high density]

52. He did?

Because it seems our current president is Bush. Zogby was predicting 311 EVs for Kerry. That was off from the results by 59 EVs (11%!)

[Anexio]

59. Kerry won what exactly?

Are you saying that he won the Presidential election in 2004?

He ran a super crappy campaign and hired Joe Lieberman, (shudder) as his number one.

Please elaborate, this should be interesting.

[The Croquist]

26. Agreed; Look at realclearpolitics.com

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

A few posts down two people posted that they signed up to include a "Liberal point of view". That distorts the poll but so do those that sign up for a "Conservative point of view". I don't know if I've just become more aware or something else is going on but the polls haven't been very accurate for 8 plus years (I don't think that the Repubs steal elections).

To make matters worse, things are happening too fast right now to really know what is going on:
Democratic Convention
Obama speech
Palin announcement (undercutting Obama speech coverage)
Palin "issues"
Republican Convention
Gustav "success"
Palin's speech
McCain's speech

It's been a very busy 2 weeks and I think that we need to wait until things settle down before taking polls too seriously.

For those of you looking at the electoral count I say don't waste your time. My home state on Real Clear Politics (Georgia) lists three polls. The ending dates for these polls are; 08/14, 07/02 and 06/29. None of these polls are recent enough to be relevant.


The first debate is 09/26 (19 days). Why don't we wait about 2 weeks to see where we are. After the first debate the polls will get squirrelly again for awhile.

[democrattotheend]

39. I think their normal polling is pretty good, but their online polling is less reliable

Although I feel like if anything, the online polling should be favoring Obama more.

Still, this could be right. I work for an organization that uses polling data and we have found that online and robo-polls tend to tilt a little more toward McCain...a pollster I know thinks there could be a little bit of a "race of interviewer effect" that tilts things a little bit too much to Obama if a lot of the people conducting the interviews are black...this pollster has found that to be the case with other black candidates in the past. I know people here get defensive anytime someone mentions the possibility of a Bradley Effect, but I think it's something we should be cognizant of.

[ohio2007]

56. No. Zogby predicted a close race and a *co victory

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

remember now ?

Barrack needs to start fighting

[Honeycombe8]

3. self-delete...dupe

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Online surveys are not polls. They are surveys and they are not valid or reliable.

[CTLawGuy]

5. online

FAIL

[tekisui]

6. Whatever.

Zogby Schmogby.

Watch the state-by-state polling. That is what matters.

[Cougar]

7. WTF?????

:puke:

[MrsT]

8. Is this one of their ridiculous "interactive" online surveys?

If so, it should be taken as seriously as an aol.com online poll.

[jmodden]

30. Sham! Wow!!!!!!

more pop BS

[Davis_X_Machina]

9. TDC for the GOP.

All downhill from here.

Wait till the 401(k) and 403(b) statements go out.

[NeoConsSuck]

20. You HIT the nail on the head!

Even the most conservative 401ks are bleeding 10% - 20% down.

4 more years of this bullshit? Hopefully, Americans aren't that foolish.

TWO recessions in eight years of Republican leadership. Why is this *not* being hammered into the voter's heads??

[melody]

10. The fundies sent thi survey around in rapid-fire succession lol n/t

[graywarrior]

11. These polls mean shit

The only polls that really prove anything are the polls run by the campaigns and they are not sharing. I've decided not to take part in any more online polls because they are unreliable.

[yellerpup]

12. I signed up to take Zogby polls so a liberal POV would be included

in the tally. I took a lot of surveys in 2004, but only 2 so far this year. They didn't send me the one above. They know in advance how I'm going to vote because they have all my numbers and preferences. I"m wondering if it's because I'm in NY again where Liberals don't stand out from the crowd. (Statistically speaking, that is...)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

13. I signed up for Zogby as well

and I live in Arkansas. This year I've been invited to participate in exactly one poll. They know I'm a strong liberal/progressive, and I think they've decided not to include me.

[medeak]

15. signed up as well and didn't get this one n/t

[yellerpup]

47. I'm feeling that as well.

But you'd think they'd be interested to have a strong liberal/progressive from AR on the totals (I was in NC when I originally signed up). What changed?

[ohio2007]

57. so what was the poll you took? got the results? nt

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

34. I haven't received anything since, well, forever

Probably because whenever I got one of their non-political consumer surveys I just raced through and answered "don't know" and "not sure" to every question.

Focus groups pay money for those opinions. Zogby stopped offering even free research downloads in exchange for my time. Fuck them.

[yellerpup]

45. Zogby is the only non-compensated one I do.

And I signed up with them specifically so I could take political surveys. Strange. Or, maybe not. Maybe they are going for a specific result? As I said, they already know my preferences.

[GOPNotForMe]

14. Screw these worthless ONLINE surveys!

How can Zogby take themselves seriously as a pollster when their methodology defies basic statistics rules?

Maybe I should consider this good news since Zogby was saying that Kerry was winning on election day and gave us all a false sense of hope. This probably means McCain is losing by 4 points, which makes more sense.

Ugh, Zogby and their mind games.

[still_one]

16. Another one of zogby's interactive bullshit polls. /nt

[mac56]

17. Worthless, meaningless, but okay to bring it up anyway.

If it helps to keep us focused.

[Mz Pip]

18. I used to get those online surveys

from Zogby. Funny thing is I haven't gotten one is at least 2 years. They dropped me. Wonder why. I always responded promptly and answered every single question.

[ClusterFreak]

21. Online survey.

Next.

[RoccoR5955]

24. Funny... other polls don't

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ shows Obama ahead, 301/224 with a tie in VA worth 13EV.
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx shows Obama leading by 2 percentage points. This one is a DAILY poll. So much for the McCain bounce, more like a flop.

[AzNick]

41. Gallup shows McCain trailing indeed

If McCain does not pass Obama, he is toast, because the positive effect of the convention is going to wear off as people realize what a hack Palin is.

I think the media overall favor Obama but do not want to make it too obvious. They also have an interest in making it last longer and be a tight race.

I expect them to be more and more negative against Palin by just raisin questions.

Earmarks, troopergate, AIP, the situation in Wasilla (budget deficit), the plane not sold on eBay, etc...

[Divine Discontent]

27. you post an online poll as breaking news?

and it's one of the few to mcanger with any type of lead, and you have your personal info blocked...

obvious? nah...

[IsItJustMe]

28. Thanks for your concern. LOL

[LeftishBrit]

29. Fuck. Hope it's wrong or a blip.

[Frank Booth]

31. I won't be surprised if McCain has a 4 point lead. But DON'T believe this poll.

This Zogby online poll is the biggest piece of crap out there. It fluctuates wildly. It's the same poll that was showing McCain up by 5 a month ago, when all the other polls were showing Obama up by 5.

Of course, the media will take it regardless and run with it. But when you've got certified morons like Tom Brokaw hosting prominent news shows, what can you do?

[javert]

33. Interesting NPR Electoral College Map

Obama: 210

McCain: 200


http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html

[muryan]

44. Interesting in that it has IA/PA/MI/NM as tossups

When I would argue that IA is safe Obama and PA/MI/NM are definitely leaning Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Online Polls Are A Joke No Matter How Many Controls And Who They Favor

DSB

[Miss Chybil]

35. Everybody needs to go to Zogby and sign up to be surveyed. I did.

They send you surveys by email every now and then. I didn't get this last one, though... :shrug:

[WeDidIt]

36. Zogby's Online Surveys are dismissed out fo hand by all pollsters

His online survey results are never included in any polling averages.

It's bunk.

[Claire Beth]

37. You CANNOT believe Zogby polls...

they are COMPLETELY unreliable.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

38. Did you notice that 2.5 pecentage points of those 3.8 points were from BEFORE LABOR DAY?

IMO there's much more credibility in HORIZONTAL TIME CHANGES in this poll than in Republican-Democratic comparisons at the same point in time.

Notice that the estimated suppport for Obama-Biden actually ROSE 1.3 percentage points from before labor Day to Friday-Saturday, while the McCain-Biden estimate of support only rose by double those 1.3 percentage points.

From http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548 :

Released: September 06, 2008
Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

The Ticket .. . . 9-5/6 . . 8-29/30
McCain-Palin . . . 49.7% . . 47.1%
Obama-Biden. .. .. 45.9% . . 44.6%
Others/Not sure. .. 4.4% . .. 8.3%

[BlueIdaho]

40. I'm part of that poll...

I get emil invites to all of these Zogby on-line polls. I routinely distort my opinions on the economy, party affiliation, and demographics just to screw these things up. Don't take them too seriously.

[HughMoran]

42. Don't post online surveys - doh!!

I guess you haven't learned not to post this crap.

[PA Democrat]

43. Please indicate that this is an ON-LINE poll in thread title.

These polls are basically garbage.

[Maven]

46. An online poll hit-and-run?

How original.

[HughMoran]

49. A hidden profile, minimal post count, hit and run to boot

This is fishy to say the least.

[nam78_two]

48. Online survey?

Ok.

[Submariner]

50. Another Freeper Troll poll....just more maggot excrement

[PCIntern]

53. this is a bs polll a guy on NPR

eviscerated it this AM...on edit; the guy from 538

[budkin]

54. Zogby is a worthless poll as stated by many.

[ohio2007]

55. Gallup is also another one ready for the trash can