McCain/Palin.....it didn't work.......not even close

[inthebrain]

I suppose some people are panicking over the recent polling. Fact remains that even with the convention, although Obama came down a bit, McCain really didn't get a huge bump. The smoke from the convention will clear soon and Obama will bounce right back up. Especially with all the hooplah still following Palin like flys on shit.

It's going to come down to the debates whereas McCain ain't gonna get away with slinging shit in a vaccuum.

I knew this wasn't going to be easy. I also figured that if we could get past the RNC with Obama still in the lead we are gonna be fine. And yes, we are going to come out ahead this time.

McCain's bounce ain't enough to get him through to Friday with all the shit regarding his running mate still up in the air.

[Joyce78]

1. McCain/Keating ... Palin "doesn't get it".

[Marsala]

2. Just wait 'til tomorrow

McCain's bump is probably not yet done, uh, bumping. Tomorrow is likely to be the peak, since the polls will then have the reaction to McCain's speech included. So panic may ensue tomorrow.

But, we shouldn't worry so much, since it will be temporary anyway.

[Wetzelbill]

3. If McCain got back to even after his convention it wouldn't be good

Remember, Kerry was down about 10-12 points after the RNC four years ago. Monday will give us a better idea, but I haven't seen McCain, on average, closer than 3-4 points to Obama in Friday's polls. CBS was tied, but that was it, the rest O was up by 4-8 points. And he looks even better in the one that matters, the electoral college. As it stands he looks like he'll hold all of Kerry's states in 2004, plus easily pick up Iowa and probably Colorado and New Mexico, and he'll fight it out in lots of traditionally GOP states, like Virginia for example. He has Pennslyvania, and it's almost even in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Honestly it looks good all around, I'm still wary, but it looks good.

[inthebrain]

5. Penn and NJ were swing states in the late going if I recall

A few others that Kerry wound up winning as well.

Iowa looks sealed up as does New Mexico. McCain doesn't look like he has a shot in one state won by Kerry in 2004.

Oh, and North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana are all up in the air right now.

[Wetzelbill]

12. I'd say MT is iffy

I'd be surprised if Obama won it, but you know, Brian Schweitzer and Max Baucus are both up for reelection this year and will win handily, they could carry him. But Schweitzer won 4 years ago by 5 and Kerry lost MT by 20, so it's a funny state like that. (I'm from MT, btw, that's why I know weird stats like that off the top of my head, I'm not Chuck Todd or anything, lol. ) I will say this if Missoula, the big college town, has Dems turn out in force that'll be very good. And also, I am a Blackfeet Indian, and I can say this, Indians in MT are pumped for Obama! And those reservations are traditional Dem strongholds, if they are energized like I think they are, well they might put him over.

I also remember Hawaii was so close to being a swing state that I think Cheney even went there to campaign the last weekend of the campaign. Or maybe he was going to or something like that. As of now, it looks like what you said, Iowa is sealed, probably NM, and all the other Kerry states. Meanwhile, McCain is struggling to pick up Bush states from 4 years ago. New Hampshire is close too.

[inthebrain]

19. I hear the Rep party in Montana is in disarray

Obama is only down by a point in the polls there. Should be interesting if he pulls it off.

[Wetzelbill]

30. I've seen other polls that have McCain up a little more

I can't remember which one but I saw as high as 7 two days ago. But I lived on a reservation all my life and I never met anybody who ever was polled there and that's a key demographic for Obama.

But they are in disarray, mainly because of Schweitzer. They'll still get Denny Rehberg's congressional seat, and they might hold a house in the state legislature, but really Schweitzer has had them on the run for 4 years. Oh man do they hate that guy. They pulled a Gingrich and shut down the whole 2007 legislative session, and fought him tooth and nail on everything. He made them look bad, just like Clinton did when Gingrich shut down govt over the budget. He's extremely popular though, the people love him, the GOP has it out for him as I said. Problem is the Dem bench is a little weak, probably have another Repub governor in 4 years. We'll see though. :)

[Yukari Yakumo]

35. They are.

Though it's mostly due to who won the Senatorial primary. However, expect all three incumbents to win here (Schweitzer {D-Gov}, Baucus {D-Sen}, & Rehburg {R-Rep}). I have seen a load of Schweitzer ads, but none from his opponent. I have yet to see any ads for the Senate or the House race.

McInsane advertised a fair bit during the Olympics, but I haven't seen an ad from him lately. Obama on the other hand, is on a advertising blitz recently. (And I love the ad since it ends with McCain, on camera, saying he voted with Bush 90% of the time.)

[ps1074]

43. Ron Paul will be on the ballot in Montana

On September 5, the ballot-qualified Constitution Party of Montana submitted its presidential elector candidates to the Secretary of State. The party informed the Secretary of State that its electors are pledged to Ron Paul for president and Michael Peroutka for vice-president. Ron Paul was aware that the party planned to do this, and has said that as long as he can remain passive and silent about the development, and as long as he need not sign any declaration of candidacy, that he does not object.

This is not the national Constitution party but a local one - still doesn't matter as long as he is on the ballot there. He came ahead of McCain in the primaries, so I think Obama has a shot in MT.

[WinkyDink]

39. It's "PA", TYVM ("Penn" is short for a school here), and we have been Blue for a VERY LONG TIME.

[Sugarcoated]

14. Check out Electoral Vote.com

It was just updated: http://electoral-vote.com/

States are getting bluer :bounce:

[inthebrain]

17. If he can flip Virginia and North Carolina

This thing will be finished by the time the polls close in the east.

I hear the Dems are doing a great job registering new voters as well.

[Sugarcoated]

22. Alot of states have out-of-date polls

Quite a few not polled since our convention, but the toss-ups and barely reds just updated are going our way. Too cool!

[Wetzelbill]

26. Wow, I was looking at a few different ones

just the other day. It's getting better. As I said, I am wary, but this looks good. I'd say count on Iowa and New Mexico. And some of the pickups like Colorado look good. I think if Obama is ahead in a state right now, he is likely to hold. And he might pick up Virginia, Florida and Ohio. It would be a route if he did. Those debates will be crucial. Then maybe prepare fo an October surprise, like a Bin Laden video. I don't think that would resonate like 4 years ago.

[AzNick]

24. Obama also looks good in the Northern rural States ...

MT, ND, SD... all 3 missile silos States look close, as well as Indiana, thanks to a strong lake-side support in the Chicago area.

As for the silos States, I call this the Ed Schultz phenomenon: red meat eaters turning democrats for different reasons. I still can't understand why. Maybe because they're eating s... right now, economically? A good education system? Closeness to Canada? Scandinavian common sense? A bit of all put together?

[CitizenLeft]

42. thank you, O Voice of Reason.

Badly needed. And the OP too. :hi:

[MadMaddie]

4. Well if Palin doesn't start speaking to the press and speaking

freely as if she can form a thought those numbers will go down for them. It's not looking good...no matter how much prepping they give her she will not be able to out debate Joe Biden.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

7. Maybe Palin will debate in tongues - with Republican operatives translating next to her

[Webster Green]

37. LOL!

Duzy nomination! :rofl:

[inthebrain]

9. That's an opportunity for Obama to define her before she can define herself

Anytime you take a break like that you're in for it. To be honest I'd like to see McCain and the RNC spinning their tires trying to fend this stuff off.

[dailykoff]

6. Both their speeches really stunk.

I missed Palin's but heard enough clips to get the idea. I watched McCain's and he looked like an animotronic corpse. The hall was reportedly half empty. I don't see this as bounce material. :shrug:

[inthebrain]

8. McCain's proposals are everything proposed by Bush

LITERALLY!!!

I'm not trying to repeat a campaign talking point either. He issued the same exact damn thing.

I also noticed that in McCain's speech he really avoided going into detail about the realities in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[dailykoff]

10. Yep a bunch of crap surrounding "lower taxes, less regulation, and more war."

That's the Big Oil-Big Finance-MIC platform in a nutshell, and that's all I heard too.

[Yukari Yakumo]

36. They are.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxGcn7lmTWY

Even Jon Stewart point this out.

[Eric J in MN]

13. I liked McCain's speech. He was nicer than the Republicans...

...who spoke before him.

I hated Sarah Palin's speech which revealed how nasty and dishonest she is.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

21. I thought McCain was doing a Howard Beale imitation at the end when he kept shouting "stand up"

"get up", "get up", "stand up". I was about to go to my window and shout "I'm mad as hell and can't take it anymore".

[Eric J in MN]

31. I don't think he sounded angry at the end of the speech.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckswExkd3bI

[Wetzelbill]

16. I watched both

Palin's was preaching to the choir. Good for the people in the crowd, but reached out to nobody really. A missed chance to introduce her in a way that could maybe snag some Independents and politically centrist Dems. Anybody who wasn't a RWer who would cheer at anything she said looked at that and saw a sarcastic jerk with an undeserved sense of accomplisment and entitlement. Nobody likes the biggest asshole in the room, male or female.

And McCain's was boring. It was so awful that years from now I am going to have to use it as an excuse for everything. "Hey Bill, we don't like your health care ideas." .... "Well, you know, I once spent an hour getting sick to my stomach and bored to death watching John McCain give a speech, so I know a little bit about needed good health care."

[dailykoff]

18. Yeah he made Bob Dole look exciting.

Maybe somebody just forgot to charge his batteries but they usually try a little harder to jazz up their shameless lies.

[Wetzelbill]

32. about the best you could say about it

Was it was probably slightly better than his Green Background debacle last summer. Lord that was horrific. But the first green and then blue backgrounds looked awful, then the rebuilt section of the stage looked like a finger flipping everybody off. No style. And McCain at one point said some classy words about Obama etc, then like a minute or two later pulled out that "Me First, Country Second" bullshit. It was just tacky all around. I never thought I'd say this but Bush at least had a bit of style anyway. McCain just doesn't have it. Not at all.

[dailykoff]

38. No, no style at all.

He's not a hateful asshole like Palin, but he's still a puke in the neocon's pocket.

[MadMaddie]

40. Trust me Palins speech was not worth watching.

The MSM is fawning over the fact that she read from the teleprompter flawlessly. The MSM is not worth anything these days. Palin didn't outline what the were going to do just as McCain didn't. They don't have a platform, well that's if you dont' count the current adminsitrations platform.

[Eric J in MN]

11. For the vice-presidential debate, we have to be prepared...

...for the pundits to treat her ability to say anything about foreign policy as impressive.

[Sugarcoated]

15. Seems to me like the bar has been set high for her

being "Sarah Barracuda", and all.

[AzNick]

28. The newness will have worn off and people will want to see something else...

The cuteness will have worn off as well.

Most people will just wonder if she's got what it takes, period.

Who cares if she has ovaries or testicles.

And I know people who were considering voting for McCain and have changed their mind specifically because of her.

[Sugarcoated]

33. No matter what the Repub bots say

she may have RW & Fundie appeal, but she doesn't have broad appeal. Besides the skeletons, scandals and extreme positions, she was not likable in her debut. She was smug and mean. She made a very bad impression.

[DianeG5385]

20. That means the McCain Campaign will be one of the dirtiest ever

No stoop is too low for them

[Sugarcoated]

29. I said this in another thread

McLame was in overdrive to define Obama before the convention because they knew he'd impress. Michelle and Barack, I think, by just being themselves convinced people they were not only "okay", but qualified. No amount of dirty ads will win this for the old man because they won't be believable. If he goes too negative it'll backfire on him. Just my opinion, but I don't buy the 'negative ads always work' meme.

[jpertello]

23. remember the gas tax gimmick?

This Palin gimmick is a similar desperate McCain ploy. Except it doesn't benefit the American people.

Except in this case McCain is going to regret his choice. She's like the female praying mantis.

[Hamlette]

25. remember how Obama's poll numbers dropped while he was on vacation

if Palin is helping McCain, and she stays "on vacation" for 2 weeks as promised, I'm thinking their numbers will drop too.

Obama still isn't as low as he was at the bottom (after vacation, before convention) so I'm feeling okay.

What I like the best is the state by state polls.

The other thing I think, I know 27% of Americans are bat shit crazy (The famed Crazification factor, the number who voted for Keyes in his Senate race), but are they really gonna "pull the lever" for a hockey mom?

[Waiting For Everyman]

27. O should just run Jon Stewart's recent video as an ad

Stewart summarized the "sameness" issue very well, while being very funny.

Palin's worthless as an attack-dog, while she's in hiding. That's a hoot! She's a toothless pitbull in lipstick. And as soon as she comes out, she's a liability. (The VP principle was "first do no harm"?) And the people who love her so much, were already going to vote for McCain anyway.

O & B can roll without having to backtrack and defend. And they seem pretty fired up.

[Codeine]

34. The bump won't finish playing out

for a few more days. Obama didn't really see his until Wednesday, and those big numbers are still reflected in the three-day average. Tomorrow may look better for McSame.

[Phx_Dem]

41. Righto. n/t

[Tribetime]

44. I hope there's a giant shitcloud coming ( as they said in Kingpin)

I'm praying