It's Nov. 4. What surprise state win would indicate a landslide?

[elkston]

This is just a fun scenario I'm playing around with in my head. But I think that if on election night, Obama wins any *1* of these states, then it would indicate an overall national trend that results in a landslide:

*Indiana
*Florida
*North Carolina
*Arizona
*Ohio

[dorktv]

1. Arizona

Which would make me laugh.

[livetohike]

8. That's my choice too

:toast:

[whistler162]

10. agreed Arizona!

[dorktv]

16. And it is really likely with a popular democratic Governor and so on.

[AZ Criminal JD]

25. It is really unlikely

Respected polls there show McCain with a 12-15 point lead. The Governor wants to run for Senate in 2010 and is not going to use political capital helping Obama at the expense of McCain voters who might back her in that election. Just reality.

[AZBlue]

65. She's supported him starting in January and spoke at the DNC.

There's a huge grassroots effort going on here and the Obama office is opening Tuesday afternoon - I actually think we have a good chance. It's certainly no given, but there are a lot of us who are going to work our asses off to make it happen.

[XemaSab]

71. No shit...

South Carolina too... I think it's the only state on the Atlantic to go 100% republican in my lifetime.

Besides Virginia and North Carolina, that is. :P

[Oceansaway]

2. FL....n/t

[DB1]

12. Without FL it is hard to envision a landslide.

[begin_within]

3. Alaska

McCain/Palin losing in either Arizona or Alaska or both would be fantastic.

[dorktv]

14. Arizona is probably going to pick up another Congressional seat

Our fourth female congresscritter!!!

There might even be two if Bob Lord manages to pull it off in CD3. I saw one McCain sticker driving around today but I saw about four or five Obama stickers. The one I did see of McCain was in north Scottsdale.

[BlueIdaho]

4. Montana nt.

[rwheeler31]

5. Missouri

[Eric J in MN]

36. I agree. MO went for Clinton twice, then for George W. Bush twice.

NT

[Eric J in MN]

61. Update

I was thinking of the question in terms of what surprise state would mean Obama almost definitely wins. I'm not sure about the "landslide" aspect.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. North Carolina (Though Indiana's polls close crazy-early, so that would be the first indicator)

[sfwriter]

7. I think four of those are strong possibles!

Arizona, Alaska, Alabama, anything starting with A I guess... :-)

[democraticinsurgent]

9. Indiana will be an early bellwether

...because the polls close here at 6pm EST. This state usually goes first out of the box to the Repukes. I don't expect Obama to win it, mostly because the governor's race (Bushbot Mitch Daniels likely re-election) won't help him at all.

But if it's close, we'll know right away that it's going to be a good night for us.

[pinto]

17. Good point.

[depakid]

20. Pennsylvania will also be an early indicator

If McCain takes Pennsylvania- or if its very close, it'll be a long might for the Dems.

[yellowdogintexas]

34. wait, do they make Evansville, Terre Haute and Gary close at 5? (which is 6 EST?)

I can't remember and I used to live there..but I do not recall having to break my neck to get to the polls by 5pm in Evansville.

Six is still awfully early, so I agree it does show trends. In fact their polls close before Ohio,New York and several other Eastern states. Even in Texas they are open until 7..of course all of Texas is on Central Time except El Paso.

That whole East of Chicago area could go heavily Obama, it usually plays Democratic anyway.

I know that Kentucky and Tennessee don't release their poll counts until their Central Time sectors are closed.

[democraticinsurgent]

42. i think you are right, 7pm EST will be the actual poll close for those areas.

...i don't remember if they have called the state earlier than 7 in the past but i do remember that Indiana is almost always the first red state.

It's a shame that Bayh is not running for re-election. There is always massive ticket splitting for him and that would help Obabma. However, I still think Obama has a real chance here. This state is drowning in unemployment, plant closings, foreclosure and all the other crap that has been sponsored by Bushco. People are waking up, slowly but surely.

[fed_up_mother]

11. How about Texas?

Now, that would indicate a landslide!

And I think it's possible

[yellowdogintexas]

38. I do too. Our new voter rolls went through the roof this year, powered by the

excitement over the primary. Now all these new voters have to vote of course but they have someone to get excited about, and they aren't going to like all the crap the other side is throwing about their guy.

I am not seeing much McCain stuff yet. However the Obama stuff just keeps rolling on! Also we have a highly publicized local race for state senate that is getting a lot of attention ...and a fairly close senate race.

Any time we are only 9 points apart with 9% undecided I get the tingly feeling.

If we carry Texas it is over.

If we come in at a single digit percentage difference, actually it is BIG

[girl gone mad]

13. Texas!!!!

:P

[woolldog]

15. Not sure if it would indicate a "landslide"

but if Obama wins Florida it's almost impossible for McCain to get to 270.

[davepc]

18. Tejas It's a 10 point state right now...factor in the Bob Barr effect.....

I wouldent wager on it (and im a gambling man) but if any shock state is in reach, its Texas...and if we win Texas then McCain can NOT win the election.

[rainbow4321]

27. Texas Voter Registration Rate Near Record Levels

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/09/voter_cards_pou.html


Voter registration in Texas will set an all-time high before the Oct. 6 registration deadline arrives for the November general election.

The state had 12.6 million voters registered for the March primary.

"We are confident that number will hit 13 million or higher," Texas elections director Ann McGeehan said Friday morning.

And that was an understatement. By late Friday afternoon, election officials had already tallied more than 13 million registered voters. The voter registration record of 13.1 million was set for the 2004 presidential election.

Mail delivery of voter registration cards over the past few days have come in boxes weighing 20 to 30 pounds

[elkston]

32. If we won Texas, the whole country might go blue.

Its really a long shot. I'm not counting on it.

[DFLforever]

19. Virginia

[Sedona]

21. no way Mc* wins Sedona

.

[ShadowLiberal]

22. Ohio wouldn't indictate a landslide, it would just say it's nearly impossible for McCain to win

[arcos]

23. North Carolina...

It will be one of the first states to report. If Obama wins NC, or even if he loses by a small margin, it means he probably did very well everywhere else.

[Zombie2]

24. INDIANA n/t

[TNMOM]

26. North Carolina

If the rednecks say aye to Obama, then it's not going to be a good night for McShame Failin.

[Bullet1987]

58. I live in NC...and agree...if Obama wins here he's President

But I disagree that it's full of rednecks. If Obama can win over some Indies...he should win the state.

[kestrel91316]

28. Alaska.

[progressiveforever]

29. If we get Idaho, it's a blowout.

[elkston]

31. Tell me about it. That's supremacist country there! n/t

[XemaSab]

72. I see your Idaho and RAISE you

Wyoming. :P

[Left Is Write]

76. If we get Idaho, I will be doing cartwheels in my yard in the middle of the night.

[Perky]

30. Electoral landslide= FLorida PV landslide = Georgia

A georgia win would suggest thar African-American turnout is extraordinarilty high and that some of the GOP base has tuned out,

Florida is going to be close but if Obama wins Florida we are on the way to 320+ electoral votes.

[mw]

33. Alaska. nt

nt

[protect our future]

35. North Carolina

[David Zephyr]

37. Florida.

Florida.

[blue_onyx]

39. Indiana.

To go from Bush winning by over 20% to Obama winning would be huge.

[writes3000]

40. Indiana. Just from the historic nature alone. nt

[DCBob]

41. Missouri.

It has almost always been a bellweather state.

[Skip Intro]

43. NC will definitely indicate a landslide.

I think that we'll already know the winner before the votes from AZ are reported.

Actually, I think if VA goes Dem, it's all over, and the only question left will be how small a minority the repukes will compromise in the House and Senate.

I think VA, even NC, are possible.

[Hippo_Tron]

44. I think it has to be several unexpected states to be considered a landslide

[carpetbagger]

45. North Dakota.

That's not on most people's radar screen, but Obama's doing well in the polls there. Ohio and Florida are genuine swing states, but ND could go dem even if Indiana, Arizona, and NC don't, depending on how the midwestern white vote breaks.

For McCain, it would be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

[the_real_38]

46. NC, and it's over ...

... there's been a bunch of new Dem registrants there.

[wickerwoman]

47. Obama could win all 50 states and Puerto Rico and the press will never admit it's a landslide

If McCain wins by one electoral vote, it will be a mandate.

Mark my words.

[Lisa0825]

48. TEXAS!!!!!

Texas Dems are FIRED UP!!!! Some polls even only show us as *mild support* for McPain. Put that together with record Dem turnout in the primaries and high voter registration, and anything is possible!!! :patriot:

[1corona4u]

49. Florida.

:-)

[coalition_unwilling]

50. Utah -- if O can win in Romney-land . . . -n\t

[VoodooGuru]

51. Indiana.

The results will be in early there, it's a very conservative state, but it's also got a bit of spillover from Chicago up in the north, populous heavily Democratic area there. If Obama makes inroads in Indianapolis and some of the college towns, he could flip it our way, and if he does then it's going to be a very long night for John McCain.

[AlinPA]

52. NC.

[Doremus]

53. Virginia. If he wins there it portends well for all states west. n/t

[GoesTo11]

54. 270-268 is all I care about.

Give me Ohio and I'll sing hallelujah.

[JBear]

55. The fix is in...

in North Carolina anyway. In 2004 NC was polling for Kerry right up until the election date. It was in fact clear that Wake County (Raleigh) was strongly in the Kerry column as everyone expected. When the final results were tallied, Charlotte/Mecklinburg was showing a Kerry win there (this is a heavily repug area!!) and Wake county was showing a Bush lead!!

This stuff does not happen. ALL of the down ticket races in 2004 in Wake county were swept by the Dems. This was not a "who will keep you safe" gut check in the polling place. It was WAY outside of any statistical chance.

The fix is in..

:popcorn:

[Celeborn Skywalker]

56. I would say Virginia, Florida, or Arizona.

[TheDonkey]

57. FL or NC.

obviously AZ would be surreal!

[tpi10d]

59. on the west coast watching election returns

I'd be thrilled with Florida, NC, Virginia, Ohio or Indiana. If we picked up any of them I'd feel very good about what was to come.

Of the states listed I'd say AZ obviously is the most difficult-if we win it the election is a rout.

[Arkana]

60. Indiana or North Carolina.

I think Indiana's polls close VERY early--if we win there we will win the night. You can pop the champagne.

[TheKentuckian]

66. Indiana, Ohio, N.C., or Florida would indicate it's over John W. Bush

but Texas would mean epic landslide.

They are in a tight spot electorally. I don't think they can win without Florida at all, they don't have enough shot in the dark on the board to brew it up.

The Republicans will be about forced out of being a national party in two more cycles, if the country can survive that long. Let's get them now while there is maybe something to preserve.

[Arkana]

80. To be fair, the Republicans thought we were finished as a party

after the 2004 debacle. How'd that work out for them?

It would be nice to stamp out all Republican opposition, but it's never good to go completely unopposed--a strong opposition voice prevents you from getting corrupt and forgetting that you serve the people, not the other way around.

[Indiana_Dem]

62. I'd like to think Indiana--call it a "sleeper" state!! lol

I hope they don't do many polls (they never seem to now, anyway).....if they aren't keeping track because they think McCain is ahead because Indiana has only gone Dem twice in its history. I would be so elated. If ever there was a time it is now!

[yellowcanine]

63. North Carolina would indicate a possible rout was on.

[mnhtnbb]

64. As a resident of NC, I think an NC win for Obama signals a definite electoral win.

[book_worm]

67. Indiana, North Dakota, and North Carolina.

[Colobo]

68. Florida.

[thewiseguy]

69. Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. and Indiana

[FrenchieCat]

70. Montana

[XemaSab]

74. They went for Clinton...

:shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

78. Likely because of Perot

It's hard to determine state-by-state exactly where Clinton would have won without Perot. But a good indicator is that states he won in '92 but didn't win in '96 (Georgia, Montana, and Colorado) wouldn't have gone to him in '92 without Perot.

[Bucky]

73. Utah

or Wyoming

[Obamican23]

75. Arkansas.

[vaberella]

77. Florida is the first to cross my mind and I hear it's tight over there actually. n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

79. Florida could mean an electoral landslide

If we win Florida it's very likely that Ohio and Colorado follow, and probably Virginia.

That could happen with a national margin of 3+ points, tumbling everything within grasp. That's why it's comical when posters assert they don't care about national polls. "You big dummy!" to quote that Phelps Phan commercial. The national margin directly relates to how the states fall in line. Florida might be 2-3 points more red than the nation this year, but well within reach if Obama manages that 3 point national edge.

I'm not going to play the game of proposing a ridiculous state like Arizona or Alaska. If you want to go there, why not Utah?