How Can McPOW Reach 270 EVs? Obama is in a Good Position.

[tekisui]

While the National Polls remain close, with Convention bumps and reactions to the day's headlines, the state polls have laid a solid foundation for Obama/Biden.

Looking where it matters, at the Electoral Map, Obama has Mcpow is a nearly impossible situation. Here is the current look at the state by state polls:



Start with giving Obama all the states that he leads with 5% or more, and the same for mcpow.

Obama-243
McPOW-165

Now, assume Obama secures MI, which I am confident he is doing right now, and assume mcpow take SD, we are left with:

Obama-260
McPOW-168

Obama needs ONLY 10 more Electoral Votes from the remaining 10 states with 110 EVs in play. Mcpow(and this is the important part) needs 102 of the remaining 110 EVs.

Obama really only needs to prevent Mcpow from reaching those 110 by taking 9 EVs.

Obama's Winning Scenarios(each number is independent):
1-VA
2-CO
3-FL
4-OH
5-IN
6-NC
7-NV+NH
8-NV+MT+ND
OR
9-NH+MT+ND

9 Scenarios, all of them within reach.

McPow's Winning Scenarios:
1-FL+IN+NC+CO+OH+VA+(NV+MT)
2-FL+IN+NC+CO+OH+VA+(NV+NH)
3-FL+IN+NC+CO+OH+VA+(NV+ND)
4-FL+IN+NC+CO+OH+VA+(NH+ND)
5-FL+IN+NC+CO+OH+VA+(NH+MT)

Mcpow has to run the board, and steal away Obama support. Which situation would you rather be in?

[Muttocracy]

1. people have to quit freaking out over the national polls and look at this and

at how the Obama campaign is running things. Just like he paid attention to how delegates were collected in the primary season (unlike, say, Mark Penn), his campaign spent the last week shoring up weak and leaning states. They know what they're doing.

[tekisui]

2. It really is very similar to the Primary.

They have open offices all over the Swing states. They have 7 or 8 just in Western NC, which is not known for it's progressiveness.

[kestrel91316]

8. I wish the media would quit reporting the damned national polls.

They are 100% meaningless, and only serve to make our guy look iffy, which can actually sway some of the less well informed voters.

[tekisui]

9. That is the objective, IMO.

The M$M want a horse race. It means rating$$. They benefit from a close race, and will try to push that appearance.

[liberalpragmatist]

3. I wouldn't get too cocky yet

Florida seems to lean towards McCain. While it may go to Obama, it probably won't do so unless several other swing states do too and Obama wins by more than 3 points nationwide.

I'm much more confident about Ohio, but let's not pretend it's going to be easy. It's a culturally conservative state with lots of white working-class voters and older voters who are one of Obama's weaker groups. And Ohio (like much of the Midwest) is an area where I would guess the Bradley Effect may have some effect.

Virginia is very possible, but again, there are many white, working-class voters and many Appalachian voters and Republicans have carried the state in every election since 1968. It will probably be a nail-biter.

Honestly, I kind of wonder if Obama may win a narrow electoral victory by eking out wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania (closer than polls suggest because of the Bradley Effect), and flipping Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, which would give him a narrow 273-265 win.

[tekisui]

6. Obama isn't getting cocky, they have the boots on the ground,

and are working their asses off.

He is going to be competitive in ALL of the swing states. First and foremost he has to secure PA and MI, then he has 9 ways to potential win it. I am confident in our outlook, but far from cocky. Now, is when the work is vitally important, and Obama/Biden have to be on. They see ready.

The other point is, I just don't see mcpow running the kind of professional, perfect campaign to win in ALL the places he would have to.

[Marsala]

4. But... but... Bump! Speeches! Palin!

Yeah, you're absolutely right. That's pretty sobering. We're only scared because we are thinking in terms of 2004 and fear that we can't take Ohio. No wonder the McCain campaign is being so reckless. They're desperate.

[geek tragedy]

5. Keep in mind that all ten states voted for * in 2004--also

that the odds of winning each state are not independent--a rising tide lifts all boats etc etc.

[tekisui]

7. Not NH. And, it isn't 2004. It isn't Kerry and it isn't chimpy.

The map is changing. And, the rising tide has been Obama's for over a month.

[Chan790]

40. And CO and NH are both trending our direction it seems.

No lie...I'm more comfortable with NH than MI. NH is a libertarian sort of place, I cannot think Palin is going to play well there at all. They like guns and economic conservatives but they also like personal freedom from government intrusion (New Englanders like to joke that if you never left NH you'd think pro-choice was a GOP value) and they distrust religious people as much as they distrust anybody else with a ideology they wish to impose.

There haven't been a lot of polls in ND...I think a lot of people assumed it was solidly GOP...then the latest poll said otherwise, but who knows?

I've got a feeling about CO. I just do.

I expect to lose VA and OH and NC. I'm doing my best to be present on community message boards and write LTTEs in contestable areas of those states...maybe we can pull them out.

[GrizzlyMan]

39. Ahhh the Wet Blanket Brigade enters the fray

You don't want Obama to win, do you?

[geek tragedy]

49. I was here in 2004 when every thread was "Kerry=landslide!!"

This place gets echo-chamberish and unrealistic.

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. Hey man don't call my state weak!

No way is it not going to Obama.

[tekisui]

11. That is just the label used by our great phrigndumass.

I have no worries about it not going to Obama at all. The only ones I am watching are the ones that are +/-3 either way. WA is strong!

[DFW]

12. LOOKS good, but take nothing for granted

The Republicans have:
1.) LOTS of money
2.) No reluctance to lie outright
3.) A voter base of about 40% that will vote R even if their candidates are cartoon characters
4.) A proven track record of mass electoral fraud and judges that let them get away with it

All we have is:
A presidential and vice-presidential candidate FAR superior to theirs in every way
The truth

Howard Dean knows it, and is taking nothing for granted. This will not be handed to us
on a silver platter. We win if we work for it. They win if we don't.

[tekisui]

13. Absolutely!

I say Quit Complaining, Start Campaigning!

Dean, Obama, Axelrod and Plouffe are taking nothing for granted.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. Enough people in Michigan or Pennsylvania not willing to vote for a black candidate...

That's the only way McSame wins. Thus far the polls show that McSame isn't picking up a whole lot of traction in those states so I'm not all that concerned at least for right now.

Iowa is safe for Obama and he's going to win New Mexico and Colorado. They will be close but he's going to win those states. His ground game (especially in states like Colorado) is going to put McSame's to shame. Also remember that McSame is 72 and can generally only do one event per day whereas Obama can do two or three. Obama is going to have the energy needed to travel out west that McSame simply don't have.

Also lets not forget that McSame is going to have to work his ass off to hold on to Virginia, North Dakota, and Montana which were states that Bush didn't even have to set foot in to win.

[tekisui]

17. Your last line is key.

McPOW is going to have to bust it to defend a large part of the map BEFORE he can move into swing territory.

Even NC is in play. I looked at 2004 voter turnout, and current polling by demographic, and it is in our favor. Take nothing for granted, accept nothing as lost.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Obama Should Win A Squeaker

I do not see FL and OH turning blue though...

I think the 273-265 is the most plausible...

[tekisui]

18. I don't have high hopes for FL or OH, either.

I see VA or CO as the states to tip it. Maybe even NC. Ohio has moved towards Obama this week, I take that as a good sign of momentum.

[DFW]

20. I think Ohio is winnable this time

Even Emily's List finally got on board supporting Victoria Wulsin to beat Mean Jean,
and Ellen Malcolm does not get involved in lost causes (they refused to lend support
to Vic Wulsin earlier this year for that very reason).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Assume You Are Referring To A Congressional Race... I Plead Ignorance

I think OH and FL are tough nuts to crack... Bush* did better in FL than he did nationally and there are pockets of OH that are culturally at odds with Obama...

I don't think the election should be close...Every metric favors the Dems, McCane is a god awful candidate, and Palin is woefully unprepared...

[DFW]

42. Sorry about that. I was in a hurry this morning

The Congressional seat won (narrowly) by "mean Jean Schmidt", the one who trashed
John Murtha as being a cut-and-run coward, is a serious pick-up possibility for
Democrat Victoria Wulsin. This would not have been considered possible 4 years ago,
and even 2 years ago, it was a surprise it was anything like close. This is in the
south of Ohio, which is more rightward-leaning than places like Cleveland in the
north. Emily's List is an organization out of Washington, D.C. that raises money for
Democratic women candidates. They have limited resources, and do not "waste" them
on long shots. If they get involved in a woman candidate's campaign, it's because
they think she has a fighting chance. When I mentioned Wulsin to them, their Texas
chair, whom I know pretty well, replied that they weren't involved in Wic's campaign
because they didn't see her as having much of a chance at beating mean Jean. Now,
they ARE involved in supporting Vic's campaign, and that means they DO see a shot of
victory--a rather remarkable turnaround in just six months (kudos to Vic for making it
that far).

[hasssan1]

16. Every one MUST start talking to friends and family and make sure they register to vote

and also make sure they go to vote on NOV 4.

Victory is ours we have to just try little more harder.

[Seen the light]

19. Colorado will win this for Obama....most important state this year

I think that scenario for Obama is the most likely of all of his, just win Colorado and he wins the presidency. That simple. And Colorado is ridiculously in reach.

[tekisui]

21. And, hold MI and PA.

From there he can give himself cushion and force mcpow to blow alot of money on states that chimpy took easily, also helping the downticket Dems.

[tridim]

29. Denver is ga-ga for Obama.

I've never had so many random people come up to me to talk about my bumper sticker. They want to know where they can get one for their car!

I know CO isn't just Denver, but along with Boulder we have a majority.

[Motown_Johnny]

36. Colorado is only 9 EV. It is not a win all by itself

http://www.zogby.com/50state/




This info is getting kinda old but it is still a good map

[Thrill]

22. Its all about Michigan and PA. We need to keep all the Kerry states and we'll win because

We're bringing IA and NM home. And I feel confident Obama will win one of CO, OH, VA, or NV

[tekisui]

23. I am looking forward to when MI and PA move to the strong Obama

column. He is working on it now.

[Cosmocat]

37. PA is good ...

BO had an overinflated 10+ polling lead early on, but has held a very steady and realistic 5 or more point lead in all but maybe one or two polls over the last three months.

This state just booted out Rick Santorum, the third highest ranked R senator, and a powerhouse, who spent more on a senate campaign than anyone in history, and he got smoked.

Rendell is a strong and loyal D governor, so there should not be any funky stuff, and Rendell will have his support behind BO.

As with everywhere else, BOs ground game is 20 times better than McCains.

The state has registered something crazy like 300,000 or more new voters since the primary started - not being picked up in polls and you know the overwhelming majority are BO pickups.

Biden is very popular here, his media buys go into the Philly area, and he is from Scranton the fourth most populated area, and needless to say is very popular there. He long has been called Biden the third senator from Pa.

Also, IMO, if Palin does anything, she hurts here.

If BO loses Pa. he will have somehow gotten completely blown out.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. McCain needs a very unlikely sweep of the vital swing states

He'd have to narrowly win Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, then hold everything else that is logical.

It can be done, similar to Democrats winning every razor senate race in 2006 -- Missouri, Montana, Virginia. However, those close wins fell in line with the national pro-Democratic mood of 2006. McCain would require a much more illogical outcome, many states narrowly defying the national generic mood.

In any event, some of the states on that table are misplaced. Obama is not tied in Montana, he doesn't lead in North Dakota, he doesn't trail by only 2 in Indiana or by only 2.7 in North Carolina, or by merely 4 in South Dakota.

Those margins require blind trust in state polls, and state polls don't mean squat compared to liberal/conservative realities in each state.

[phrigndumass]

26. Proud to K/R!

Nice use of the stats, tek! You have a good knack for analysis.

:hi:

[tekisui]

27. Thanks!

I like where Obama/Biden are entering the final 60 days.

And, thanks for all the great charts/graphs/numbers. I think I am going to dive in this weekend.

:toast:

[central scrutinizer]

28. Another polling site worth bookmarking

Supposedly this guy nailed the 2004 election exactly.

http://election.princeton.edu /

[grandpappy]

30. Ohio is out.

Ohio will be a McCain state. Too many bigots and strong support in the south western part of the state, repub strong hold. Many Dems in the eastern counties don't like his position on abortion, strong ethnic European Catholic constitutes, old world ideals.

[msallied]

31. Ohio has been one of the hardest hit states in the nation with the Bush economy.

If they vote against their own best interests because of abortion, they deserve to rot.

[depakid]

34. They've been voting Republican for years regardless

of right wing trade and economic policies that have devastated their communities.

I agree, it's hard to have much sympathy.

[msallied]

38. Oh I know it... I'm from there.

And I'm from the southwestern quadrant as well (Dayton), so I am really familiar with the conservative, idiotic mindset there. IT's just ... man, in all my life I haven't seen them be nearly as screwed as they are now. The exodus rate for that city alone is enormous. They have lost about 10,000 jobs alone this year. It's tragic. I like to think that they will put their ways of life, their paychecks, their ability to feed their damn families above whether or not so and so has an abortion or so and so gay couple gets married or burns an American flag. The viability of the Republican social agenda DEPENDS on whether or not people are financially prosperous enough to give a shit. If they are not, they're going to hopefully vote to save themselves that way and worry about abortion later.

Bill Clinton took the state both times, if I remember correctly. Let's hope they see the error of their ways this year. If not, that state is going to become the official armpit of the U.S. in no time.

[FatDave]

33. Ohio was stolen last time.

Even if you rule out electronic voting monkey business, there was massive disenfranchisement going on. Democrats control the election board now. OH, while not definite, is not outside the realm of possibility. Nowhere near outside it.

[creature of habit]

45. delete

wrong place

[creature of habit]

46. ohio- more dem votes

total there were 1,162,631 more Dem. votes in the primary than Rep. votes


2,224,907 Dem.
- 1,062,276 Rep.
______________________

1,162,631




http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/state/oh


a large turnout in the general election will make this margin larger - Obama wins Ohio

[FatDave]

32. I like to think of it this way.

If Obama can win all the states Kerry won in '04, plus IA and NM, that puts him at 264 electoral votes. +CO wins. +OH wins. +VA wins.

To win, McCain would have to win CO, OH, FL, MO, VA and NV, and they're all polling close to even right now.

Kerry states plus IA an NM is a great position to be in, and it's likely he gets them. NH is iffy right now, but that will change.

[Motown_Johnny]

35. Colorado is only 9. With Michigan it is only 269

[tekisui]

41. But, it blocks mcpow.

It doesn't leave enough in the pool for mcpow to win it.

Obama would likely pick up somewhere else in that scenario.

[creature of habit]

43. New Hampshire and Ohio put Obama over the top

I think Obama will win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

[KansasVoter]

44. Worth Bumping

[No Elephants]

47. Obama and McCain only recently became the official candidates. A lot

can happen in 60 days. Take nothing for granted. Stay focused on an Obama Biden victory, donate, volunteer and vote. (And, yes, I love seeing the good news polls anyway!)

[Frank Booth]

48. Still not a sure thing. I could see McCain taking all 10 of those states.

I still think Obama will win, but there's no reason to get overconfident.

[krawhitham]

50. 13 Ways for Obama & 5 for McSame

[tekisui]

51. I like the chart!