Consumer gloom suggests Obama victory: survey

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, should benefit from consumers' dissatisfaction with the weak national economy, according to Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

A close correlation exists between the cycles in the Index of Consumer Sentiment and presidential elections, the survey group said.

Over the past half century, nearly all presidential elections occurred in years in which the Sentiment Index was near its cyclical peak. The two exceptions were 1980 and 1992, when confidence was near cyclical lows, and the incumbents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush lost their re-election bids.

The current election marks only the third time in more than 50 years that confidence is near its cyclical low point during an election year, the survey group said...

(Yahoo news links don't work as live links on DU because they have underscore marks in them, but you can paste the url into your browser.)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080905/pl_nm/usa_economy_sentiment_dc;_ylt=Aub8_NFUqfPV86bPZQhPJZca.3QA

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. .

[OmahaBlueDog]

2. I posted this (with little interest) but it very much supports your hypothesis

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stock-market-may-already-voting/story.aspx?guid=%7BF82F7147%2D937C%2D4AC7%2DA226%2D5002673EAC0C%7D&siteid=yhoof

<<Has the stock market already voted by absentee ballot in this November's presidential race? It may very well be in the process of doing just that. And a big clue as to how it is voting is provided by Thursday's dismal stock market, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 345 points. For the still-young month of September, the Dow is now down 3.1%.

This points to an increased likelihood that the Democrats will reclaim the presidency in November's election. >>