Predict the GOP convention bump

[Bucky]

Most polls going into the convention showed Obama 6-9 points ahead of McCain, limiting us this year to a 4-7% "bump" following the Denver convention.

Where do you think the polls will stand (as measured by Pollster.com and as seen on TPM Election Central) by next Monday?

[RoccoR5955]

1. not only will this inspire McCain supporters, but Obama supporters as well...

...and there are more Obama supporters. People on the fence are the ones we have to be concerned with. Perhaps they can be swayed to our time, but this administration has had eight years and hopefully they are not as uninformed to fall for the same old rhetoric that they are telling us, and have been telling us for more than thirty years. Major gain for Obama!

[Bucky]

3. I'd like to believe it, but history trends otherwise.

I don't think there's a single convention in the last 30 years that didn't give some kind of bump in the polls to its party.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. I vote for no bump at all for McCain.

The GOP has no message. They have nothing but hate.

[and-justice-for-all]

4. If she cant take issues...

she is royally fucked. Palin, has never had to talk issues and I do not think that see can.

wisecracks and non answers will not do and she will just be made a fool.

[PBS Poll-435]

5. 'Convention Bump' is a very sexist mean-spirited attack on her precious family

I prefer the "rising of the poles."

Er...I mean polls.

[Bucky]

6. I'm keeping track of all of you. I'm voting for the polls the land w/McCain 2 points ahead on Monday

Whether he's there or not, that's how pols always should run--like you're two points behind.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. Did you read the text?

:evilgrin:

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I'll say dead even

The second convention is a massive advantage. Initially I expected McCain to lead but now I'll estimate a tie.

But that's a short lived tie. It should naturally rebound to a small Obama lead.

Look, we were never going to win by comfy margin once we isolated either a woman or a black to top the ticket. That's simply reality when the vital swing states are conservative like Ohio and Virginia. I'm not going to avoid the topic simply because it doesn't play well here. An open race is not a lopsided situational advantage and we forfeit some of the generic lead with a never-never pick like a female or black. I think many Democrats got too overconfident regarding margin based on 2006, a second term midterm and much more decisive edge than now, with Bush still the direct focus and Iraq a disaster.

Actually, based on your terms Obama will still lead. Pollster incorporates a wide swatch of polls. I think it will be dead even based on sampling of polls taken in the aftermath of this convention.

I'm concerned that 37 million watched last night. Gustav didn't remain a competing story long enough to distract from the convention.