One last post before I'm off to bed...

[lapfog_1]

I had always figured that the immediate analysis of Palin's nomination to the VP spot on McCain's ticket was wrong. The immediate snap judgment (by almost everyone in the media, here, elsewhere) was that he was attempting to attract the Hillary voters... so they could vote for a woman for vPresident. But that wasn't it. Over the past 5 or 6 days now, we know that it was an attempt to shore up the evangelical base, to attract the Dobson followers. Here, FINALLY, they have a true believer running, the one they THOUGHT they had with "W"... but "W" was a weak President, a creature controlled by the neocons and big money (Cheney and his faction). The evangelicals felt used and duped because they near deified George, who spoke some of the right words, but didn't follow through with the agenda to make this country a "Christian" country. So, in Sarah, they feel they now have someone who is not just a dry drunk convert, but someone who was reached at an early age, a true believer. McCain needed their votes come November, and more important he needed their money right now. He was rewarded in that last Friday, after the Palin announcement, McCain had his biggest one day fund raising of nearly $4M.

But then something happened.

Perhaps it was the media having someone new in the mix.

Perhaps it was the blogosphere doing the vetting that McCain so clearly didn't do... and finding so many scandals on this woman that the reader (or blogger) didn't know which way to turn. Two or three scandals a day, some of them (like the Down baby was really the grandson and mom/daughter/family were trying to cover it up) were highly salacious. Some were the more pedestrian like she was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. And some were downright boring... a husband with a 20+ year old DUI. But Sarah has occupied the airwaves and the blogosphere like no one else in the race since early in the primary season when Obama and Hillary were trading blows and the Reverend Wright scandal was center stage.

What has happened is that the race is now Obama versus Palin. No one will care much what 72 year old McCain has to say... and Joe Biden, while a great story and a true straight talker, is simply well known in political circles. With both of the older men there simply isn't much NEW about them. Their stories are well known and well covered.

McCain is a lame duck before the first ballot is cast for his prospective first term.

Will the scandals cause Sarah to step down... I think that's now HER decision and not McCain's. He is riding this whirlwind, not directing it. Obama needs to direct his attacks more against her than McCain. McCain has lost his grip on his own campaign (if he ever really had it... remember the story about how "McCain doesn't speak for the campaign" when he made one of his many gaffs?) He may take the oath of office should his team win, but the win will belong more the Palin than McCain. Youth will be served, the torch has indeed been passed to a new generation. Sarah Palin represents her part of this new generation (now forty-something), a generation where you either joined the true believers in the campus crusade for christ or (like me) you drifted into agnostic or near atheist beliefs... Christmas is still celebrated, but it might as well be called the mid winter festival of lights like it was before the Christians appropriated it for themselves and then commercialized it to an inch of it's life. Obama, too, represents this part of that generation well (OK, he isn't an agnostic, but he fervently believes in the right to belong or not. Religion in it's place and not as the end all be all.

I think this is good news for Obama... he is clearly the more qualified. And the voting blocks (his is youth and "brights" and secularists plus the old alliance of labor and ERA activists and African Americans, hers is the evangelicals plus their old alliance of money interests and ruling class types). The numbers have always been on Obama's side, he just needs to get the turn out AND keep the disaffected working white men from deciding that they have to vote race.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure it's now Obama v. Palin

and Palin only got one vote for President... McCains. If she had entered the primary race she would have been laughed out by the Republican establishment machine.

Well, off to bed now... next 8 weeks are going to be interesting.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Excellent, thoughtful comments. Thanks for taking the time before going to bed

:thumbsup:

[cwydro]

2. You make a good point there.

I agree that she is going to appeal to the wacko evangelical base.

[Honeycombe8]

3. Wow. We SO don't think alike. Step down? Good news? Obama v. Palin?

Step down, you say? Were you watching the same convention I was watching? Why on earth would the one person who has energized and brought together the Republican Party this year step down? They were hoping their hatred of Hillary would do it. Instead, their love of Palin seems to do it (for the time being). There were women literally crying in the audience. Standing ovations. Men smiling with pride at the "womanly" woman on the stage, who at the same time was woman enough to have a happy husband and scads of kids, but still look great and have a feisty personality. (They all know she won't do anything REALLY important in the W.H.)

Good news? Biden, w/all his knowledge, now has to be extra careful in a debate with a female novice. His attack dog status brought down a notch because of her being female and young. Good news, when the new VP nominee is a surprise from left field that no one was prepared for? Good news that McCain found someone in Obama's age bracket?

Obama vs. Palin? No way. He is presidential material. She is second banana stuff. It is Biden vs. Palin. SHE is not running for Prez. The focus needs to stay on McCain.

[lapfog_1]

4. If the scandals reach a crescendo, she would normally be asked

to step down.

It's already in the MSM as a question... and, as we know from open microphones, right wing pundits are openly dismissive of her qualifications.

She delivered a speech tonight that SHE DIDN'T WRITE! So don't go getting your panties in a twist over how much the convention loved her. They loved the one line put downs of all things Obama, liberal, and democrat.

But lots of people can deliver a stump red meat speech. Eventually, before the election, she will have to go on the TEEVEE and talk to reporters... or debate, or talk at a podium without the teleprompter.

If she lied in the vetting process AND it becomes obvious that she lied... I think she might still step down. But now I think she has a much more free hand in that decision.

And, yeah, I think it's Obama v. Palin now.

[Honeycombe8]

11. If it ever becomes Obama v. Palin, Obama loses. Presidents don't compete with assistants.

No, she didn't write her speech. And no one in that party cares. They have declared her brilliant in her delivery. Words I heard by the pundits: She is the bright new face of the new and changed Republican Party. She was brilliant. She has brought the party together. She was sensational. How could someone who has never in her life given a speech to an audience of that size, much less televised across the nation, and do so well!? She's a natural.

Presidents don't compete with Vice Presidents. If they lower themselves to do that, that means they have lost. There should, of course, be NO WAY that a Vice President is any threat to a President on the opposing ticket.

It is not McCain vs. Biden or Obama vs. Palin. It is McCain vs. Obama and Palin vs. Biden.

[stolivodka]

8. Repukes at the convention cheered like they never cheered before.

They paid good money to fly all the way there and cry/cheer/stand+clap for whatever the party put on the stage. They did the same for every speaker.

McCain has been upstaged at his own convention, but honestly, there's enough to attack both McCain and Palin. We can and will spread the love, because America is sick of Repukes and their crap.

Palin is the weak link and has Gramps hiding from the media. This is good. If we drop the attacks on Miss Wasallia and go back to the old Democratic Party debate club strategy, McCain's campaign will be able to recover, before November.

I have confidence that Obama/Biden, with help from us evil liberal internet people, will keep the pressure up on these losers, so we won't just win the White House, but will devastate the GOP down-ticket.

Peace.

[lapfog_1]

10. Well, there is one big change as a result of Palin

and the scandals...

John "media darling" McCain no longer has a congenial relationship with the press corp. He has pissed off a number of them and is trying the patience of the rest. And tonight's red meat tirade against the "librul media" isn't going to help. So we might start seeing some help on this, but I wouldn't count on getting all that much.

[Honeycombe8]

12. McCain's campaign "recover"? From what? Show me a poll that shows he's damaged

in any way.

[LooseWilly]

5. On the other hand...

Might be, that Palin is just a move to shore up support/garner enthusiasm from the base. The more one thinks about it, the harder it is to believe that anyone sane might really believe that she's liable to draw Clinton voters (except maybe the bigots looking for an excuse to vote against a black man)...

She's getting the media spotlight... but it might be best to turn it into a judgement on McCain's ... judgement. Might be.

In any case, whether going after Palin or not, an eye has to be kept on McCain. And, no point in missing out on the opportunity of pointing out the amazingly rash decision of a VP that'd been poorly (at best) vetted. Make it about judgement....

[TheKentuckian]

6. I don't believe in giving the the framing

It's not wise to turn the discussion to Obama vs. Palin, because that's what they want.

Keep it on McCain, Palin is not an equal and will get smacked down if she goes too far that way unless we open the way.

[FrenchieCat]

7. I disagree.....

I think that after today, it's all downhill for the McCain/Palin ticket, period.
Somehow, this was the highest it was going to go.

I'm pretty good at predictions.

[lapfog_1]

9. I actually never predicted how this fight would go

and I tend to agree with you... I think the media is going to make this an Obama v. Palin fight... and that's to Obama's advantage.