If anyone thinks Palin will cause McCain to lose,

[Medium Baby Jesus]

Is seriously deluding themselves. Half the country voted for Bush's second term and the same people will love Palin. She will not drop out. She will be very popular among the Republican base and I haven't seen anything in the "scandals" discovered so far that will cause major damage to her or McCain. This will be a tough race for Obama right to the end and if you want him to win like I do, keep your eye on the prize and stop with the unrealistic claims that the race is over.

[tekisui]

1. Watch the polls this next week. Palin will sink mcpow.

[trueblue2007]

39. Palin will sink McCain because of the Affair story.

The magazine (often times called a rag) Breaking news:

McCain Camp Battles National Enquirer Over Alleged Palin Affair

September 3, 2008 07:42 PM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/03/mccain-camp-battles-natio_n_123696.html

John McCain's presidential campaign is threatening a lawsuit against the National Enquirer over a print edition story the tabloid ran today alleging that Gov. Sarah Palin has had an extramarital affair with her husband's business partner.

The allegation would normally be dismissed by political observers as the random musings of a supermarket tabloid -- indeed, the McCain campaign said as much in its statements on Wednesday -- except that the paper has built up a reservoir of legitimacy following its earlier reporting on the John Edwards affair.

In a statement to the Huffington Post, a spokesman for the paper, who promised a larger report next week, tapped into that pool of quasi-respect.

"The National Enquirer's coverage of a vicious war within Sarah Palin's extended family includes several newsworthy revelations, including the resulting incredible charge of an affair plus details of family strife when the Governor's daughter revealed her pregnancy. Following our John Edwards' exclusives, our political reporting has obviously proven to be more detail-oriented than the McCain campaign's vetting process. Despite the McCain camp's attempts to control press coverage they find unfavorable, The Enquirer will continue to pursue news on both sides of the political spectrum."

Clearly, this is a touchy matter. Already, rumors that Palin's youngest son was actually the son of her daughter were batted down. And the McCain campaign has strenuously insisted that the current crop of insinuations is not only false but also potentially libelous.

"The smearing of the Palin family must end. The allegations contained on the cover of the National Enquirer insinuating that Gov. Palin had an extramarital affair are categorically false. It is a vicious lie," said McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt. "The efforts of the media and tabloids to destroy this fine and accomplished public servant are a disgrace. The American people will reject it."

But the Edwards reporting complicates matters. Just one month ago, conservatives were bemoaning the fact that no major media outlets had the temerity to follow the politically and personally sensitive rumors about the former North Carolina senator's infidelities. Jonah Goldberg, for example, wrote on the National Review's the Corner in later July that:

"Whatever the merits of the whole Edwards love child story, are we really supposed to believe that one of America's most famous trial lawyers wouldn't sue a publication that printed defamatory and slanderous lies about him? Also, it's worth pointing out that while the Enquirer may or may not be scrupulous in its choice of stories -- that's in the eye of the beholder -- it is pretty scrupulous about its facts. They win lawsuits. They've broken a host of stories the MSM guys couldn't."

Does the MSM now have an obligation to pursue this rumor, however touchy, or at least ask questions?

"The "success" with Edwards no doubt will give them some more credibility, although we should remember that some of the allegations in their "lovechild" stories have been far from proven (although also far from disproven)," wrote Greg Mitchell, editor of Editor and Publisher Magazine.
"Some of their Palin revelations may be quickly firmed up, prove bogus or more likely rest somewhere in-between for awhile. But what will be interesting is whether the Republicans and conservatives and MSM critics who jumped on the MSM and liberals for not quickly embracing the Enquirer's Edwards work will now pooh-pooh the Enquirer when it comes to THIS candidate....:"

And yet, at the same time, the Enquirer's story may be something of a break for the McCain campaign, which has come under siege for the Palin pick. If the Arizona Senator and his aides are able to effectively portray attacks on the Palin as the product of smear, sleaze and innuendo, it clouds those that are more legitimate. And with new attack lines opening up against Palin seemingly every hour, Democrats may be even more hesitant about straying into the tawdry.

[uppityperson]

2. No, "1/2 of the country" did NOT vote for Bush's second term.

But I agree, there is still much work to be done.

[msallied]

3. Please don't compare the two elections.

Because they are not nearly the same. You need more than the wingnuts in your base to win elections. You also need indies, moderates, and swing voters--all of which are jumping McCain's ship. McCain has 8 years of failed Bush policies to run against as well. So please take your defeatist attitude elsewhere. If you still can't believe by now that we have a viable chance of winning this thing, especially NOW that McCain's campaign is imploding before our very freakin eyes, then you either haven't been paying attention, or you simply do not want to win.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

6. Your post illustrates my point

[msallied]

9. Wow. And yours illustrates mine. Funny how that works out.

[1corona4u]

4. Yep.

Seems like some people are becoming complacent....

[Orsino]

5. He's going to lose, but now he'll have another excuse. n/t

[saltpoint]

7. Well, we'll have to see how Sarah Palin does in the big Leagues.

To date her hard-ball politics experience appears to involve intimidating a librarian in a town of roughly 6000 people.

Let's see how she does on her own feet against the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

[jillan]

15. They are really setting up Biden.

He better be careful, he's going to be seen as arrogant.

pleeze!

Biden will handle her with kidd gloves, and a knife up his sleeve ;)

[saltpoint]

27. Your instincts on Joe Biden are as good as they get.

I'm guessing Joe will be immaculaely courteous and respectable, even as he's dissembling every point she tries to make.

I would never consider debating Joe Biden on any topic.

Who knows how Palin thinks she's going to do.

[CTyankee]

33. Oh, she'll have a set of stock responses to anything Joe can say.

A whole lot of "There you go again" and such. The rethugs know how to poke fun at the super serious Dems. That's why Joe's sense ofhumor will be so important. He needs to take a lighter approach so that when she has a comeback, HE has one too.

[saltpoint]

35. Agree. Biden is the man for this job.

I couldn't be more pleased that he'll be doing it.

[MrModerate]

8. There will be a lot of voters who luuuuv her . . .

The fundie part of the Republican base. The not-crazy part of their base is already expressing discomfort. Thinking uncommitteds will, IMO, shift strongly away from her; unthinking uncommitteds could do anything. The Dem base will be even more determined that she never see the inside of the White House.

Will she drop out? I don't think so. Will she be a significant factor in McCain's defeat. I'd say yes. Is it a sure thing and should we kick back and start picking out our inauguration frocks? Hell no.

[JVS]

10. She hurts the ticket.

She's a loser. And Americans will never tolerate a loser. Bush is dumb as a bag of rocks, but he was seen as being in an advantageous position. They are not the same.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

13. I hope you're right

but after the past eight years, I refuse to overestimate the American public.

[JVS]

19. It's not a matter of under- or overestimating, it's a matter of knowing their vices.

Michael Moore worries that because 1/3 of American girls are pregnant before they're 20, that the daughter's pregnancy scandal could hurt democrats. He couldn't be more wrong. If the public thought like that, then many of the social problems that Moore writes about would be gone. We don't do sympathy here, we mock. It's the American way.

[still_one]

23. bush has a 20% approval. mccain voted 90% with bush /nt

[A-Schwarzenegger]

11. Medium Baby Jesus Loves Sarah.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

18. At least I'm not a republican like A-Schwarzenegger

:graybox:

[A-Schwarzenegger]

34. So you do love Sarah, you really really love Sarah!

Medium Baby Jesus :loveya: Sarah Palin!

[Dukkha]

25. but Obama IS the messiah

[faithfulcitizen]

12. Consider me deluded. I think their going down....

[Lost-in-FL]

14. Two of my coworkers decided today they would vote for McCain

based solely on Palin becuase she seems like a stronger candidate than he is. They sounded very enthusiastic about her which is a big change from a few months now. They now have hope for their party. So yes, I agree with you. Once she survive all the rumors there might be some trouble ahead.

NOW SUIT ME!!!

[DevonRex]

16. The group she appeals to would vote for her anyway. The gun

people, the fundies, the idiots who would never vote for a dem in a million years. But there are also some republicans and independents that she will scare away from the party. Those who are moderate on social issues and conservative on economic issues and know that we MUST have someone in the WH who knows how to get us out of this economic mess.

[cali]

17. You are the deluded one.

And duh, the scandals have already caused serious damage. do try and keep up.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

20. Condescension noted

Link to "serious damage"?

edit sp

[cali]

32. oh for pity's sake. women voters are going heavily for Obama.

he's ahead by five to 8 points in every national poll. He's beating the crap out of McPain in Iowa and MN- two supposed battleground states. He's even ahead in SD. Educate yourself and find your own links. They're only posted all over DU.

[still_one]

21. 80% of the people believe roe should stay

no Clinton supporter, or women who believe in equal pay for equal work are going to support this
there are more women than men
young people and minorities will vote Democratic

bush has a 20% approval rating

mccain voted 90% with bush

what did you say again?

[jillan]

22. We need to keep our eyes open.

The repugs will use her to their advantage.

[Honeycombe8]

24. I agree...up to a point. The REAL good news is that it won't get McCain Indie votes....

which is what he NEEDS to win.

The polls next week should be interesting. I'm nervous about the Palin thing, and a tad worried. But the upside is what I said...it could indeed mean the end of things because she absolutely does not appeal to anyone but the base. And he needs more than that.

[calimary]

26. I think we underestimate her at our peril. We also OVERestimate the intelligence

and discernment of the American electorate. They've proven already that they'll swallow anything.

[BlooInBloo]

28. Yah - I'm sure nobody wants him to win more than you do.

[Medium Baby Jesus]

29. Thanks for responding

Now please go fuck yourself

:)

[BlooInBloo]

30. Nah - It's much more entertaining to watch your concern.

[saltpoint]

31. I believe a lot of conservative Republican businessmen will be

giving Gov. Palin a careful assessment based their readings about her in FORBES, the WSJ, and so forth, and I think they'll conclude almost immediately that this is not the sort of person they would hire for their own businesses.

This demographic supported Dubya, but Dubya was his daddy's son, and there was no incentive for "fiscally conservative" GOP business-class voters to reject the Bush Family apparatus. So they privately admitted he was likely a nitwit but he'd have the benefit (?) of his daddy's people to kind of see him through.

Palin was a failed mayor of a small town and a governor for a short time of a state with what -- 700,000 people or so?

And she's from out of nowhere.

I think this reflects poorly on McCain, further strains McCain's relationship with traditional GOP voters, and likely hurts him as the fall campaign intensifies.

Palin has to be note perfect from now to November. That's going to be difficult.

[tigereye]

36. always a pleasure to read your analyses OC!

:hi:

[TheKentuckian]

38. I'm sure that their sleep at the wheel base is fired up

but I have to think she drives away more than she motivates and will attract perhaps a few young and a few more older women voting their plumbing.

She should be respected as an adversary and defeated with extreme prejudice but not feared.

Would you be scared of a McCain/Buchanan ticket?

Fear is the mind killer, we will let the fear go around us and through us, and when it is gone only we will remain.

or something like that. I hate to misquote Herbert but the point is clear, ride it out and don't let it rule you.

We will elect Barack Obama the next President of The United States of America!!!

[weezie1317]

37. Thank you! That's exactly right!