8/29 Election Model Kerry:331EV/99.6% win prob due to Zogby/Rasmussen (CA)

[TruthIsAll]

Sorry, Ray Fair.

Rasmussen's latest CA poll (51-42) removes that 3% Kerry lead outlier from Survey-America - and it gives a boost to Kerry's average EV. And Zogby's latest poll numbers, except for Ohio and WV, have Kerry ahead in states like CO, MO, TN, NC.

The result: Kerry is back in control after a one week slump. Don't believe the media Bushit that Bush is in front.

BTW, I have added a new report to the election analysis model: 5000 simulation EV trials. I am still keeping the 1000 simulation run as well. Why? With 5000 trials, we have a more accurate EV average and median result. I'm still keeping the 1000 simulation analysis as well. You'll notice a slight difference in the numbers between the 1000 and 5000 trial runs.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/


EV Sensitivity Analysis
5000 Simulation Trials (new)

Undecided allocation to Kerry
............50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

Kerry:
Trial Wins 4938 4970 4984 4996 4998
Win Prob. 98.76% 99.40% 99.68% 99.92% 99.96%

Pop. Vote 50.60% 50.92% 51.24% 51.56% 51.88%

Average EV 323 328 332 335 339
Median EV 324 328 332 336 340

Max EV 391 391 396 407 396
Min EV 219 229 240 248 230

[lancdem]

1. I also saw an Ohio poll

that had Kerry up 48-46. That's the first one I've seen there where he's not trailing in awhile.

[Chichiri]

2. TIA, I may have asked this before . . .

. . . but is there some election modeling software that would let me run these kinds of simulations myself? Preferably freeware? (Sorry if I am repeating myself...)

[TruthIsAll]

4. I don't know of any, but you can try google for it.

BTW, I tried to upload my Excel-based interactive simulation model, but I'm getting a file-type error from geocities.

I'll check it further.

[Chichiri]

5. Thanks . . .

And just to bug you further, do you have a link to that primer on how your probabilities were calculated that you posted a few days ago? I should have saved it, but didn't. :dunce:

[TruthIsAll]

6. Here you go...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=676438

[Chichiri]

7. I have to tell you, TIA...

...you just plain rock. Thanks so much! :yourock:

[ellie]

3. Hi TIA!

I enjoy your posts! Thanks a lot and keep up the good work!

[Inland]

8. How does American League victory in All Star game factor in?

[Bundbuster]

9. Thanks TIA - you are a rock!

Always good to see you cutting through the BS.

[DarthDem]

10. Thanks, TIA

Good stuff as always. But wait - - Zogby has Kerry up in CO, MO, NC and TN? Where's that data? This is the first I've heard of it and if true, that would be remarkable indeed.

[TruthIsAll]

12. I saw these polls posted, don't recall where, but I will

look for it. These polls were not included in Zogby's Aug. 21 poll release and appeared a few days later.

[oasis]

11. Thanks for the needed boost.

[TruthIsAll]

13. Another boost

Bush needs 85% of the undecideds to have a 50/50 shot at winning.

Fat chance.

[tritsofme]

14. You still give Zogby Interactive polling credence?

I just emailed some buddies of mine and asked them who they're gonna voter for.

10 said Kerry one said Bush.

Tritsofme Interactive polling now says that Kerry will win 90.9-9.09%

Thats about how credible Zogby is on the Interactive side.

[TruthIsAll]

15. If Zogby did not believe in the methodology, he would not use it

I think he has more experience in polling than you do.

Do you work for Gallup?

[tritsofme]

16. Does he claim it is scientific?

I do not believe he does.

[Fed Up]

17. why doesn't media report this stuff. Today on radio "Bush leads in EC"

I love your optimism and the stuff you cite, but all the corporate media talks about is "a tied race." Now CNN says "Bush ahead in electoral college."

I wish they would pick up the data you cite. Good work.