The Daily Widget – Wed 9/3 – O-322, M-216 – Obama’s Eighteen, Now Being Tracked

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS

No new state polls have been released for the sixth day in a row. Obama’s electoral vote projection drops one point to 322 today as polls for Montana and Nebraska from July become outdated (older than 35 days). Trading takes a big 14.40 jump today for Obama (see Figure 2b below).

I posted a thread on Saturday showing the state polling for Obama’s Eighteen coming alive. These are the 18 states that the Obama campaign is concentrating most of its efforts on this year. Below is the graph I used in that post.





I thought it would be interesting to track the progress of these 18 states as a group, both for polling and trading. So I introduce to you today the new Obama’s Eighteen widget, and the tracking graph of total trading for these 18 states. These 18 states have a total possible trade of 1800.00, so 900.10 would be a majority.

The number of electoral votes for each state can been seen in the left margin of the widget. To the right of each state is today's closing figure on Intrade, with yesterday's closing figure shown next to it, and the change since yesterday. The far right column shows by how much Obama is leading (or trailing if negative) in each state's latest polls.








Trading for Obama’s Eighteen leaps 28.20 today to 832.70, or 46.3% of the total possible 1800.00. This is a 1.6% gain since yesterday. McCain and “the Field” split the remainder at 53.7%. Trading usually follows national polls after a lag time, so these figures should continue to rise in the near future.


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


~~~ No new state polls ~~~


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Coexist]

1. I'm working one of the eighteen to help that spike!

[phrigndumass]

2. Florida definitely needs help, thanks for working there!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[GoesTo11]

7. Has Obama been pushing in Florida since the Palin pick

They can't like her that much down there, so she might put it more in play.

[phrigndumass]

10. Florida is one of the "18" so he'll be working hard there

You're right, Florida is around the world from Alaska.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

3. Thanks for watching the 18 swings.

The Obama campaign has a lot to work with. Many ways to win. Every time I study the widgets, I see many possible paths to 270+ for Obama, and still see really only one way for mcpow. He is stuck behind the eightball.

Yesterday, I was looking at the 6-column chart to see if one of the factors in picking Palin had been the 3 EV from there. If he was afraid of losing those 3 and having to work to defend them, he must be sweating.

When I work and re-work the scenarios the only state that mcpow can afford to ignore is MT. And, Obama's priority #1, IMO, must be to secure MI. Once MI(and NH) is secure, he can win with just one more of the swings that have more than 6 EV. It's a very good place to be.

Thanks again for the numbers!

[phrigndumass]

5. Great analysis!

It definitely helps that Pennsylvania is polling well for Obama. With Pennsylvania and Michigan staying blue and Iowa looking good, we definitely have a shot at winning!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[terrya]

4. It still amazes me that Montana is trending Democratic.

Hell, that's always been the reddest of Red States for years. :-)

This is looking very good. It looks like we'll lose Florida, but pick up Ohio. That's ok.

[phrigndumass]

6. We know it's possible, since Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992 :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[terrya]

12. That's right!

I had to laugh...seeing Arizona as "weak McCain". :-)

Good morning! :hi:

[davepc]

9. Montana has an amazing Democratic Governor in Schweitzer and Senator in Tester

Big Sky needs to become Big Blue!

[fight4my3sons]

8. Good morning!

Nice work on the new widget!

:bounce:

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

11. Thanky Varmuch!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

:bounce: for LMD

[fight4my3sons]

13. LMD

was especially happy with yesterday's bounce thread. He thought that was a lot of fun! "A lot of bouncies with +'s and a roller coaster graph!" :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

14. LOL!

Roller coaster graph :rofl:

Too funny!

:bounce:

[phrigndumass]

15. Off to work kick ... A cheeseburger for the 5th rec! Any takers?

mmmmm .... Enjoy your day!

[grantcart]

16. how many EV from Obama's 18 does he have to have to win?

[phrigndumass]

17. As of today, he only needs 70 of the 199 electoral votes from those 18 states

or 35.2%.

Good question!

:hi:

[Demeter]

18. Happy Weds. P-Man!

I guess I just don't understand Figure 5a. As long as it was above the black, I was happy in my ignorance. Now I'm getting concerned. Should I be?


And I love the takeoff on Ocean's Eleven! That's one of the coolest movies in modern times.

[phrigndumass]

19. Heya D!

The trading seems to lag behind the national polls, and it's just beginning to pick back up today for Obama after the good polls from this past weekend. If the polls continue on their present track, the trading graph will jump back over the majority line very soon. Total trading jumped 14 points today. :D

The prices on some of those states were getting quite low. Now is a good time to buy, before they skyrocket!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

20. Evening Bounce

:bounce:

[Demeter]

21. I HATE THIS

[Demeter]

22. STUPID COMPUTER

[Demeter]

23. WHOOPS

[Demeter]

24. OOOPS

[Demeter]

25. Here's a Little Something For a Midnight Snack!

Obama Gains Among White Males, Palin Hasn't Helped McCain on Women
September 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Although John McCain still has a double-digit lead among white male voters, Barack Obama has closed the gap by 8 points and among whites who are independents, he has narrowed the deficit to 5 points, according to Gallup's analysis of August's tracking poll data and a comparison of it to polling done Aug. 30-Sept. 1 after the Democratic convention.

For Aug. 1-28, McCain led among non-Hispanic white males by 56 percent to 35 percent, a lead that fell to 53 percent to 40 percent after the convention. McCain had led among white voters who describe themselves as independent by 51 percent to 35 percent, but now, he leads Obama only by 47 percent to 42 percent.

Sarah Palin so far does not appear to have helped McCain much among white women. His lead among them was 4 points both in the Aug. 1-28 period and then in the Aug. 30-Sept. 1 sampling. Among white Democratic women, Obama's lead had been 74 percent to 15 percent, and is now 82 percent to 13 percent. Obama has gone out ahead of McCain among white women who are independents, moving from a statistical tie to to a 46 percent to 39 percent lead.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/09/obama-gains-among-white-males.html

Just in case you haven't seen it. Like that was a possibility....


And Another~

Women To McCain: We’re Just Not That Into You
By: Christy Hardin Smith Wednesday September 3, 2008 10:07 am 23
diggs
digg it


Dear John letter via IrishDragonGreen.
EMILY's List, which has been doing substantial polling of women and their thoughts on the presidential race, reports that the Sarah Palin pick has hurt John McCain's electability among women pretty much across the board. Some excerpts from their latest report (PDF):

-- First, this selection puts John McCain squarely in the realm of politics over principle in women voters’ eyes. Obama's choice of Joe Biden is thought to be a selection based on qualifications over political expediency by a 50% to 29% margin. McCain's choice of Sarah Palin is considered one of political calculation over qualifications by a 59% to 20% margin.

-- Second, Sarah Palin’s background and personal narrative are not particularly appealing to women voters, and she matches up poorly against Joe Biden in terms of the potential to establish a compelling narrative. When GarrinHartYang asked women about Sarah Palin only 41% total said that she either "appeals a lot" or "appeals a fair amount." When asked about Joe Biden, 61% total viewed him as either appealing a lot or a fair amount.

-- Third, Governor Palin’s inclusion on the ticket squanders John McCain’s previous advantage over Barack Obama with regard to experience and readiness to lead. Not only do women find Sarah Palin's qualifications lacking, but having her on the ticket undercuts the one advantage McCain previously held over Obama in the last Emily's List polling.

-- Fourth, several of Governor Palin’s positions on issues, including her position on abortion, alienate large segments of the women’s electorate and add to the perception that the GOP ticket is out of step with women voters’ views and priorities.

-- Fifth, even with the historic inclusion of a woman on the Republican ticket, women voters conclude that the Obama-Biden ticket is more in step with the issues and concerns that are important to women than is the McCain-Palin ticket. By 53% to 35%.

-- The more that Hillary Clinton’s primary supporters learn about Sarah Palin, the less likely they are to support John McCain. In fact, a full 55% of Clinton voters said that Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain, and Obama moves to a 54- percentage-point lead (75% to 21%) over McCain among these Clinton voters with the addition of Palin.

I knew when folks like Maureen Dowd and Dr. Laura turned against Palin publicly that something ugly was brewing.

The McCain campaign, which must have been drinking heavily last night to pull this out of their increasingly rumpled hat, trotted Ann Coulter out to gripe about Palin's husband not carrying enough Mr. Mom weight in order to elicit sympathy for their failing Veep pick. I'm sure he appreciated the tips. Tremendously. No idea why anyone thought Ann Coulter was the appropriate parenting skillz messenger, but you work with whomever wants their share of the limelight, I suppose.

Since half the GOP has run the hell away from the convention center, with scads of empty seats on the teevee coverage thus far, maybe she and her perpetual cocktail dress had a few spare moments to chitchat.

But to see hard numbers on how sour the female electorate has turned on Palin in less than a week is startling, given that the vast majority of women outside Alaska likely had very little clue who she even was. Looks like women don't like manipulative tactics or imprudent rolls of the campaign dice. McCain just got served a serious "Dear John" letter.

http://firedoglake.com/2008/09/03/women-to-mccain-were-just-not-that-into-you/