Tell me where I got it wrong: Polls are all wrong,Kerry double digit win

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

1)Think any Gore voters gonna switch their vote? Maybe a few wackos.

2)People have posted links to republican groups that aren't going with Bush....we will get many more switch-over voters than they will...nothing scientific to back that claim up but who do you think is more likely to switch their vote this time,that is,from Bush(2000) switch to Kerry or Gore switch to Bush? I would bet we get a lot more switch-overs...hopefully in battlegrounds.

3)Pure speculation here but I believe a majority of independents will go dem....maybe there are polls on this somewhere?

4)Many who voted Green will switch to dems not Nader...even a major
figure within Green party advised people not to vote Green or Nader.

5)Nader will drop-out and if he doesn't many of those that are polled as Nader voters now will think better of it in voting booth just like last time...didn't get near the numbers they polled at before the election last time...they had them polled at 5% before election only got 2%.

6)We've registered many more new voters and they don't get polled.

[DebJ]

1. new voters that's the key. Always is for the Democrats.

I registered three new Democrats today!!!! Yeehah one at a time.

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

2. Way to go!!! People like you are gonna win this for us!! n/t

[Stew225]

9. Way to go DebJ. That's terrific! eom

[59millionmorons]

3. Actually

Everything you said is correct. Example my grandparents who live in Florida by the way, will be voting for Kerry. They didnt vote in the last election.

[lapfog_1]

4. The other side claims

that they have a much more energized base than before, so many
wingnuts are voting this time, mostly because they now BELIEVE
they have a kindred spirit in the white house. Plus, they
also believe that a number of independent moderates will vote
for Bush because he has been an effective leader in the war on
terror.

That's THEIR reasons why Bush is higher in the polls. Frankly,
I just don't buy it. I'm pretty sure that the right hated
Clinton SOOOO much that they were as motivated as possible for
2000... and they still lost the popular vote by 500K AND there
was a more significant challenger on the left on the ballot.
As for the "effective leader war on terror"... again, I'm sure
that plays to the base, but I can't see that many people being
sucked in by such a large lie. In addition, all of the failures
and scandals.

So, I just as puzzled as you are.

[indyjones1938]

16. n/t

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

21. I have to disagree.

Kerry was about my 3rd or 4th choice for the nominee. I liked Dean the best,also liked what I heard from Kucinich. What do you think voters like us are going to do...abandon the party because Kerry doesn't support many of the things we support and go with Hitler? I think people understand that we have to kick the little fascist out of office.

[yardwork]

26. I am a little worried about the campaign to get out the fundie vote

This whole religious movement worries me. I can understand how greedy stupid people would support BushCo. I can't understand how kind, generous people can do so, based on the single issue that they think he is the second coming of Christ. They're signing up their friends and neighbors to vote Bush.

This is an assault on the fundamental separation of church and state, which guarantees freedom of religion in the United States. As a Pagan I have a personal stake in this outcome - maybe I shouldn't use the word stake.....

[MoonRiver]

5. My fear is whether our votes will be counted.

What I hear is that 1/3 of the election precincts in this country are using paperless voting machines. Need I say more?

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

10. Its kinda late in the game but shouldn't we try to get the word out...

on voting absentee? I don't trust these fascist at all,like most out here. I really admire the work Bev Harris is doing and I hope she can accomplish her goal but just in case I think absentee is the way to go. Like I say its very late in the game and we can reach just so many people. We should have payed more attention to this and been more proactive....I'm very worried about this.

[MoonRiver]

14. I've been screaming about this for over a year. First on Democrats.com

and later here. Bev Harris once told me that the absentee ballots are scanned into the computer and then either disgarded or considered not eligible for recounts (wtf!). I honestly don't know if this is correct, or only partially correct. I wish somebody would inform us about all the recent developments regarding e-voting. I hear so many different things, but I'm scared to death about this issue. This is so important that news about e-voting should be pinned to the top of the board, imho.

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

19. The more I learn about this the more scared I get.

I wonder what the Kerry team is doing about it. I don't think I've heard them mention it once but I'm sure(PLEASE GOD) they have some sort of strategy and oversight behind the scenes.

[MoonRiver]

20. I heard once they were doing something in terms of pre-emptive

legal action. But after that I have heard nothing more.

[LiberalFighter]

23. Paper Ballot Links

Paper Ballot Links

Courtesy of Today's BuzzFlash

[Suzi Creamcheese]

24. I think people should vote anyway

That way they have a better chance of their vote being counted

[Davis_X_Machina]

6. Every year...

...this country is less white, less straight, less native-born, less prosperous, less 2.1-kids-and-a-dog, than the year before.

Ruy Teixera figured out that if Bush simply gets from each subgroup the percentage he got in 2000, he loses by 4 million votes.

Their time has come and gone -- that's why they're fighting so hard, and so dirty.

It's all over, they just don't know it yet.

[alcuno]

7. Chris Matthews said last year that the media wants a close election.

It's more interesting for them. Apparently their biggest world concern is possible boredom.

[LisaL]

8. They are like a pack of wolves

Sad and pathetic.

[oscar111]

11. flaws

hi,
hope you are right.
now, friendly corrections below.

newly registered DO get polled dont they?

In science, one learns that there are a hundred convincing theories for every one that pans out once some lab data rolls in.

Your points are all theory, logic, except for one.

i really want to believe you are right. But i will hold the theories in mind with a "tentatively true, no more than that" label on it.

Pure theory is as weak as the medieval theories on "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin." Data is what is needed.

But i love your attitude. Keep on helping and posting! Let's work together and SWEEP ALL REPUBLICANS FROM OFFICE. Some fine day, that "party" will close its last office, the keeper will go home, and die from old age. That gang of thieves will cease forever, all existence.

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

15. Thanks...I want to know when I'm wrong...I AIN'T no repug..LOL

If you get my point. Have you ever heard a repug say he was wrong?
The only part I disagree with is on polling of new voters...most polls I've seen are among likely voters and from what I've heard on Hardball and elsewhere that doesn't include newly registered. The way I understand it,and I could be wrong on this,polls are very expensive to conduct so they only want the most likely voters and new registrant don't fall into that category. Now,having said that, there maybe polls that focus on new registrant that I haven't seen.

[MasonJar]

12. Tonight we had a precinct (Dems only) ice cream social. One

of those in attendance had too leave early to have dinner with Pug friends; he took them a Kerry sign. He said that they are rabidly against GWB. I loved it.

[LisaL]

13. Definetly

Some republicans are turning against Bush.

[DaveinMD]

17. double digit wins

are very rare in modern Presidential Elections. Clinton won two virtual electoral college landslides and won by 5 and 6 point. Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by 6 points and that was a landslide as well. The last double digit was Reagan in 84 and before that Nixon in 72. Those type of elections don't happen often. I expect Kerry to win by 3 points, with over 310 electoral votes.

[Joy Anne]

18. Republicans for Kerry

I was a volunteer escort for shuttle bus riders at the Kerry-Edwards rally here and thus talked to a lot of random people. Lots of them were Republicans who said they'd "had enough"; Bush isn't a "real Republican," and they suspect Kerry will do a better job re the budget and the economy and militarily minding our own business.

[cheshire]

22. All republicans I really talk to are voting Kerry. I know of 6 at least

[NEDem]

25. The moderate republicans I know

are having a hard time making a firm stand toward Bush. There are many others that have decided to vote for Kerry.