Palin candidacy isn't a game-changer, but it isn't senseless either

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Frank Newport on MSNBC saying today's Gallup will be about the same as yesterday's, which would mean a brilliant speech and most-watched speech in convention history equals zero gain in Gallup daily.

It i probably best to separate Sarah Palin's objective quality (zero) and electoral value. For whatever reason, she was sufficient to equalize the effect of the most watched convention speech in history (38 million) that was widely hailed as among the finest campaign speeches ever delivered. (That is to say, Friday's poll sample was roughly equal to Tuesday's)

So though SHE is a joke, the symbolism of her candidacy is not a joke. It is not nearly enough for McCain to win but may be, as counter-intuitive as this seems, a slight net positive... a point or two on the margins. (My first blush reaction was that McCain would have done better picking Pee-Wee Herman, but as the RNC spin rolled out I could see the nature of the product they were pushing.)

The Obama campaign seems to have recognized that by retracting morning criticism and replacing it with neutral polite praise. The Obama campaign does not want Palin to be the issue because to American voters she is a more interesting and likable product than McCain. McCain is a boring, nasty mummy... keep the focus there.

That's a good call by Team Obama.

The Hillary-vote-poaching spin is mostly just to piss off Democrats and milk disunity memes alittle longer. The pugs surely know that Palin will get VERY few Hillary voters, but the nut-right seems to love her more than Huckabee himself.

Religious-right types are good at believing things that are not true. Many evangelicals were probably convinced McCain was pro-choice and were thus willing to consider Obama because of the economy. Why was it James Dobson "couldn't" vote for McCain? McCain is a social conservative! Bu the nut-right doesn't see him that way. But carrying a child with a genetic defect to term is, to those folks, a bigger deal than a chest full of medals, a nobel peace prize or ten PHDs. I know these people all too well. (We don't get to chose our relatives!)

Palin firms up McCain's floor while limiting his ceiling. Not a good enough pick to win, but not entirely without its clever elements.

If nothing else, she decreases the chance of McCain collapsing the Party in down-ticket races. They are probably playing to keep the Senate under 60 as much as playing to win the presidency. So not a winner for McCain, but probably limits damage to the pug party a little by ensuring better nut-right turn-out in certain areas.