Today's Gallup Daily: did the Palin-pick stop McCain's slide down?

[npincus]

Yeah, I know... polls, schmolls. Yesterday showed an 8-point bounce. I am curious to see today's numbers.

Do you think his political stunt, picking a female political-neophyte VP, stopped the McCain slide (Obama bounce)?

(I hope Obama breaks 50)

[Martinucho]

1. It's too early to tell

The Gallup daily will only include reactions from 1 day, whereas the poll is conducted for three or four days.

We won't know the full extent of the effect her pick had until the middle of next week.

[npincus]

2. Gustuv will have slammed the US mainland then

a catastophe for our country, a reminder of Republican/B*sh failure.

[CoffeeCat]

3. The people who like the Palin choice...

...were all ready in McCain's camp and they were NEVER going to vote
for Obama. These are the Fundie fringe, and the far right 20 percent
of the Republicans who believe that dinosaurs are "Jesus horses" and
that the government needs to dictate women's reproductive choices.

The movement in the polls is with the undecideds and the Independents.

A small minority of women will go for her, just because she is a woman.

However, the undecideds and Independents are more intelligent and skeptical--as
a whole. They will not buy into this horrid decision. For one, her far-right
politics aren't attractive to undecideds and Independents. Secondly, this
was a blunder of a decision.

People are still digesting this decision, and as it becomes clear that she
is totally unqualified--and as other bits of information come out (McCain
only met her once, she's under investigation, etc.) this decision will become
an albatross around McCain's neck.

The polls will stay the same, with Obama's bounce intact. McCain will get only
a 2-3-point bounce out of the convention. After the Republican convention, we'll
start to see the full effect of the Palin blunder when McCain slides and Obama
gains.

I don't see how the Republicans can possibly move forward with her on the ticket.

I predict that Palin bails before October due to "family reasons."

[highplainsdem]

4. Today's Rasmussen poll (link) suggests she stopped the Democratic lead from widening.

I've posted the poll results in another topic. Obama has a 4-point lead in both sets of numbers (including with leaners). I'm sure it would have been much wider if McCain hadn't announced a VP pick most Republicans are apparently happy with, right after Obama's brilliant speech.

As I said yesterday, whether we like her doesn't matter, in terms of poll (and election) results. Republicans do seem to like her (usually for the same reasons we dislike her).

But that Rasmussen poll shows that even among Republicans, only about half of those surveyed think she's ready to be president if necessary, and fewer than a third of independents think she's ready.

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

which has a link to the separate Rasmussen poll on voters' opinions of Palin.

[Motown_Johnny]

5. Possibly, they reported raising 4 million online yesterday. 6 times more than any other day

there could be a bump, or at least a stop in the slide


not that it will hold, she is all flash and no substance

[LBJDemocrat]

6. Palin will help in the short term (a week or two), hurt in the long term

It sounds like an edgy decision at the moment, but soon the reality will set in and voters will note the stupidity: putting a woman who was a small-town mayor two years ago as VP for an elderly and possibly ailing Republican.

[NewJeffCT]

8. I think you're right - as things trickle out about her

like, leaving a town of 5,400 people $20 million in debt, etc, her effect will be more negative in the long-term.

[Colobo]

7. I predict: Obama 49% McNut 43%

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. This will be the only day that include Hillary night AND Obama night

Obama's acceptance speech is currently not reflected in Gallup (as of Friday's number) The bounce so far is a Hillary bounce, with the sharp 6% leap on Wednesday--the Wednesday polling day was immense (at least 15% lead for Obama) and the other two convention days are kind of flat.

Today's Gallup will be the first to reflect Obama's acceptance speech (most watched convention speech ever) and the last day to include the monster number from hillary night so this *should* be the biggest lead ever. Obama night should create a one-day sample even MORE lop-sided than Hillary night. (18-20% lead)

But the Palin pick muddies the water. Despite DU and pundit reaction, the only public numbers we have on Palin so far (Rasmussen) are quite positive.

Put it all together and I see another 2-3 points up for Obama today, which would have been 4-6% without Palin, and then a drop tomorrow. That drop will not be driven by news at all, but due entirely to the giant Hillary night sample rolling off the average. That will create the illusion of the Palin pick being super-popular.

(Note that Rasmussen and Gallup use different length averages--three day and four day--so they shouldn't agree during tight event driven periods like the conventions.)

[DB1]

10. It will eventually give both sides a bump. Less undecideds.....

Undecided women that voted for Hillary because of her stand on the issues will go for Obama, undecideds that voted for Hillary primarily because she is a woman and don't care about the issues will go to McCain. Net gain Obama.