IT AIN'T A TIE

[Nicholas_J]

By Alan Waldman
Published 26-08-04

Despite virtually universal media insistence that the presidential popular vote remains too close to call, Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry has held significant leads in the crucial electoral vote total since late May – briefly interrupted by the mid-June media circus over Ronald Reagan's death, but firmly re-established since early July (after Fahrenheit 9/11 began screening and Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate).

The latest state polls, as of Aug. 24, put Kerry ahead of Bush by 108 electoral votes (with Colorado's nine votes tied). Currently, Kerry leads in former Bush states Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire. (And at one time or another during the past five weeks, Kerry has also led in former Bush states Arkansas, Ohio, Arizona and West Virginia.)

Why is Kerry leading handily in electoral votes while the popular vote remains close? Because there has been a major shift in about 15 states, with seven former "battlegrounds" moving to Kerry and eight former Bush states becoming freshly competitive. Although many pollsters and pundits have been focusing much of their attention on Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, those states have moved firmly toward Kerry. At the same time, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and even South Carolina are now in play.

Seven ongoing battleground states have stayed close, with the candidates currently within 5 percent of each other. In addition Kerry currently has a dozen states in the West, East and Midwest, which provide an unshakeable foundation of 113 electoral votes for him – versus 17 mostly smaller bedrock Bush states, with 134 votes. Finally, Kerry benefits from the fact that currently only one state (Nevada; five votes) is likely to be taken from him by the Nader vote.

BATTLEGROUNDS LEAN KERRY :

http://www.orlandoweekly.com/news/Story.asp?ID=4541

[mconvente]

1. awesome news!

Spectacular news! Even with the Swift Liar BS, we are still holding our ground!

[VaLabor]

2. uhhh...

This should still be taken with caution.

The electoral college vote count on www.electoral-vote.com is very close -- and this site is maintained and updated by a pro-Kerry guy.

http://www.electoral-vote.com says:

News from the Votemaster
It looks like the swift boat ad is working. Kerry is now dropping in the state polls as well as in the national polls. Bush claims no involvement while his top lawyer, Benjamin Ginsberg, admitted he advised the swift boat vets and resigned. Dirty tricks that leave no fingerprints are nothing new to Karl Rove, but what is surprising is how unprepared Kerry appears to have been.

Specifically, the Los Angeles Times reports Bush leading in Missouri 46% to 44%, in Ohio 49% to 44%, and in Wisconsin 48% to 44%. Wisconsin was leaning towards Kerry and Missouri was tied, so Bush picks up 21 votes in the electoral college from these two key states.

It was almost better or worse, depending on your perspective. A new IssuesPA/Pew poll in Pennsylvania has been released as well. Two results were given. Among registered voters, Kerry leads 45% to 43%, but among likely voters Bush is ahead 45% to 44%. I will use the LVs even though that favors Bush (I am pro Kerry but also pro honesty). However, this poll was conducted concurrently with the Zogby poll I posted Tuesday, so I will average the two, as I always due with concurrent polls. This gives Kerry a 48% to 45% lead for the moment.

If the race remains as it is now (fat chance) and Bush picks up Colorado, which is now tied and the referendum there fails, Kerry wins 270 to 268 in the electoral college because 270 is the magic number of electoral votes it takes to win. If one elector can be bought, it becomes 269 to 269 and the Republican-dominated House picks the president. How much do electors cost?

.....

[CatWoman]

3. about 30 minutes ago

Wolf Blitzer put up an electoral map with Bush over 270, and Kerry at 260ish.

[Jim Sagle]

4. That doesn't add up. The total should be about 540.

[speedoo]

5. Right, Wolfie had dumbya at around 276, Kerry at around 264.eom

eom

[CatWoman]

6. they just showed it again

[WillyT]

9. 538, I Believe !!!

:shrug:

[snyder]

11. The Total is 538 ...

... but many polls don't add to that because some states are tied and therefore not counted.

[Nicholas_J]

7. Varies depending on who is doing this

The most relaible and unbiased groups have Kerry a few EV ahead of Bush. Rasmussen has Kerry:

Electoral College Projections
Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results

Election 2004

Electoral College

Bush 183
Kerry 193
Toss-Up 162
RasmussenReports.com


August 27, 2004--Neither George W. Bush nor John Kerry can count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral college projection shows Senator John Kerry leads in states with 193 Electoral Votes while President George W. Bush is ahead in states with 183 Electoral Votes. This is the closest the candidates have been in the Electoral College since June 21.

Bush has never been ahead in our Electoral College projection.

The biggest trend is that the number of Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category continues to grow. As of today, Rasmussen Reports projections show 162 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up column.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Electoral Vote.com has:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 259

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Election Projection:

Current Projected Tally:

Electoral Votes: Bush 227, Kerry 311
Popular Vote: Bush 47.4%, Kerry 50.7%

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Robert Silvey:

Electoral College Update 24
Kerry 297, Bush 241 electoral votes. The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows two changes: Arkansas (6 EVs) is now projected for Kerry, and West Virginia (5 EVs) for Bush.

http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/

A few others have these projections:

In the White House Scoreboard, a compilation of the most recent state polls on the National Journal's Hotline Web site, Kerry passed Bush in electoral votes the week he named Sen. John Edwards as his running mate and has held the lead for more than two months, though in recent weeks, the gap has narrowed.

The latest Hotline tally has the electoral vote count at 252 for Kerry, with Bush at 249 and 37 up for grabs. A similar electoral count on the Los Angeles Times' Web site has the race at 161 electoral votes for Kerry, 147 for Bush and 198 undecided. It takes 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/shared/news/politics/stories/08/26close.html



ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 needed to win)
LEADS OUTSIDE MoE ALL LEADS W/2000 RESULTS^
STATES EVs STATES EVs STATES EVs
Bush 8 65 13 176 29 280
Kerry 7 145 16 218 20 231
Tied/Disputed
Unpolled purple 2 27

http://nationaljournal.com/pubs/hotline/

So when you deal with polls and projections done on TV, particualrly the polls done byt Wolf Blitzer, you are dealing with something that is based on one polls alone, probably the most recent poll done y CNN alone, and not looking at all of the other polls for states put together. As it stands, Kerry still has a lead on Bush in the electoral college in virtually all other projections.

[Leilani]

8. From the last few days poll results

it seems obvious the SBVT ads have worked. In many toss-up states where Kerry held a small lead, he is now behind.

Bush is still not popular, & people want change.

There is still time, but Kerry needs to get moving.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. What till the next batch. One day does not a trend make.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Neither does the projhection based on one poll

n/t

[Nicholas_J]

13. Neither does the projhection based on one poll

n/t