New Poll: Minnesota Kerry 48% Bush 44%

[WI_DEM]

Rasmussen is starting a new wave of state wide polls and Minnesota is the first entry.

Kerry is ahead by a 48-44 percent margin. Last month, the democrat has a 7-point lead. Still, the real story is that the incumbent president is pulling only 44% and is running below what he received percentage wise in 2000. Kerry is pulling about what Gore got. Remember that Minnesota was closer than expected in 2000 due to Ralph Nader being on ballot.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[Worst Username Ever]

1. My fellow Minnesotans may be coming around.

I hope.

[shaolinmonkey]

4. C'mon Minnesota. If you go for Kerry, I'll wear a Vikings jersey

(and I'm a Packer fan)

[mzmolly]

2. Good news!

:bounce:

[dennis4868]

7. Maybe I am a....

pestimistic person but Minnesota should be a safer state than 48-44....this may mean that Kerry will have to waste his time and visit Minnesota and take away time from the "swing states."

[fujiyama]

10. Minnesota

was always considered a swing state. It's demographics have changed radically over the years. Remember that ass wipe Norm Coleman is from that state. They also elected a republican governor a few years ago.

Gore won it by less than 3%.

[WI_DEM]

14. I consider it a swing state now

but in presidential elections since 1960 it has only gone Republican once--in 1972, and even then George McGovern received well over his national average and nearly beat Nixon there with 48% of the vote.

[dennis4868]

15. that is my point....

Minnesota is suppose to be a safe dem state when it comes to the presidential elections....and a Kerry 48-44 lead is not good enough....

[jean]

3. We will work ourselves to the nub for Kerry, you betcha!!!

[fujiyama]

5. Isn't Nader on the ballot again?

The state will be close again but I think Kerry will carry it in the end.

I'm more worried about IA and WI. Gore won those both by less than 5,000 votes each I think (well less than 5,000 for IA and just a little more than 5,000 for WI - very similar margins). It sucks that Nader is on both state ballots.

[lancdem]

6. And this could've been done before any Swift Boat backlash

[Wickerman]

8. Show up in the state every other day and it ain't going to help

when you are a moran like Bush*. He's mananged to be here 3 times in the last few weeks, Dick has been here and so has Pickles - it wain;t doing the trick.

[SaveElmer]

9. Concentrate on Bush's number...that is the key

It isn't really important what Kerry is polling right now. These polls are getting close because voters are moving between Kerry and undecided. Bush has not picked up any significant support in months. Kerry is going to get most of these voters in the end.

[no name no slogan]

12. Very good point elmer

I don't see Nader being much of a factor in MN this year. David Cobb MIGHT be a factor, but he (or the MN Greens) have not been campaigning much here this year, as there's no other statewide election (like there was in 2000). My prediction: Kerry will take Minnesota easily, and the Democrats will gain a few state house seats, and possibly one congressional seat (Patty Wetterling).

It's funny though....I've seen THREE of those "W '04" stickers on the back of Mercedes on I-94 between Mpls and St Paul in the last week. But who gives a damn about the social contract anyway.

[liberal N proud]

11. CNN was gleefully reporting these advances for dubya today.

They were grinning the whole time and tying it to the effect the Swift Boat ads had. So the slimmy bastards got their way!
:mad:

[Gloria]

13. Look at the fine print....how they're getting the numbers...!

Looks like it is likely voters, done August 1-26 (500 a night) with a
+/- 5 MOE. (Total of 13,000 voters)

That means it includes all of the SB attacks....but only a smaller sampling from the most recent negative stories about the SBers.....The Premium subscribers get the 7 day rolling average, which would show the trends....we aren't see that!! And they are apparently have trouble getting "adequate" sampling....



Here's the fine print:


This data has been compiled from a national telephone survey of 13,000 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 1-26, 2004. Each night, 500 interviews with Likely Voters were conducted. National results for the survey during that time frame show that President Bush and Senator Kerry each attracted 45% of the vote. State-by-state samples carry a margin of error that varies from +/- 3 percentage points to +/- 5 percentage points depending upon the state. Data for California, Texas, and New York carries a 3 percentage point margin of error. For Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, the margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. For all other states, the margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. In all cases, the margin of error is expressed with a 95% level of confidence. In some states, oversampling and supplemental interviews were used to obtain an adequate sample size for reporting purposes.