Polls...it is this simple!!!

[SaveElmer]

Any state where Bush is polling 47% or lower he will lose. Any state where he is polling 48-49% he will probably lose (account for Nader here).It doesn't matter what Kerry's number in those states is right now...most of these undecideds will migrate to Kerry.

Bush's advantage where he has one is not because he is gaining ground, but because Kerry is losing ground to undecideds.

I am not aware of one poll in any of the battleground states where Bush is polling 50% or above.

So, when these polls come out ignore Kerry's number. It's Bush's number that is important, and these haven't moved significantly in months.

[LibertyorDeath]

1. Thanks

[BillZBubb]

2. You make a good point.

If Bush* can't get above 47% in a state, his likelihood of winning it are very slim.

But, we have to be wary about the undecideds. How could any reasonable person be undecided given over 3 years of the Chimperor? Foreign policy is a disaster. Domestic policy is a disaster. Most people are worse off. The undecideds are so loopy, they could go for Bush* just because they like his dog.

[SaveElmer]

4. It's hard to admit you were wrong

I'd be willing to bet most of the undecideds were Bush voters in 2000. To vote for Kerry now requires you admit you were wrong the first time. Sometimes it takes time to come to that realization. Historically though, the challenger picks up around 70% of these folks.

[HFishbine]

3. I have a theory too

Or a rationalization, however you want to look at it. I haven't seen any polls that show the level of commitment to each candidate (would like to if anybody has a link), but if the polls show Bush with a solid lead going into Nov., I think that may just inspire more than a few people who are marginally Bush to stay home -- thinking it's in the bag. I suspect, again I don't know, but I suspect that the percentage of Kerry supporters bound and determined to vote for Kerry come hell or high water is higher than for Bush. My point, a Bush lead just before the election still won't mean a win is imminent.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Also, polls of 'likely voters' discard anyone who is newly registered

or didn't vote in 2000. But as we know, there are A LOT of people eager to vote this year who never have before. So our side will be undercounted on LV polls.

[liberal N proud]

6. Another thing that the polls are not taking into count is all the new

voters. There is a massive voter registration taking place this year. Unlike any other election.
Some counties in Ohio haave doubled their registered voters this year, and the usual influx of new registrations doesn't happen until after labor day.
You can't tell me that with this large of a push that people are mobilizing around the wheasle in the white house!

[SaveElmer]

7. Exactly Right

We just gotta make sure to get them to the polls...