I do not believe these polls...

[Dawgs]

I just can't believe these polls for the following reasons:

1) Gore won in 2000 when Dems were apathetic and didn't come out to vote.
I just can't believe we won't see more Dems voting to get rid of Bush.

2) In 2000 Gore won. Are we supposed to believe that, after four of this Bush hell, the election is still this close. I don't believe it. Bush is destroying America, but yet the election is just as close as it was in 2000. I realize many are voting for Bush because they don't want to believe he's keeping us safe, but what the hell.

3) Most polls are based on "likely" voters. Likely voters are people that have a history of voting. Again, there is no way that more Dems won't come out to vote.

Am I wrong about this?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Yes... (nt)

this race will be razor close....

[klook]

2. You are right on

We can't get complacent for a second, BUT your points are all valid. There are a lot of Kerry supporters who are "unlikely voters" according to the pollsters.

[vi5]

3. Don't underestimate fear....

9/11 did change everything. It made otherwise sane, reasonable people fall prey to fear.

[pmbryant]

4. I think the polls are roughly accurate

On your points:

(1) In 2000, Dems were not apathetic. But they should be even less so this year, so your point remains.

(2) Media propaganda covers up a lot of Bush's misdeeds. That is the only reason it is close.

(3) This is valid, I think, but unpredictable.

I think Kerry will win by a small margin (2-4 points).

Let's get back to working on it! :-)

Peter

[progressivebydesign]

5. I was thinking that, too... here's why!

I couldn't sleep last night. Yesterday was a bad day politically, and for our fellow DUer, Mari333. I had lots to think about. One thing that really struck me about the political race is this. HOW could Bush REALLY be ahead or even close in some polls, given what has transpired in the past four years AND given his extremely poor ratings on individual issues.

The war: it was a colossal mistake. Americans are upset by our military deaths, and lack of reason for going into Iraq. The economy: We all know firsthand the effects of Bush's economy, regardless of our party affiliation. Puffing up miniscule gains does nothing for the millions unemployed or underemployed, for the thousands of bankruptcies, foreclosures, and business failures. Crime is up: always happens when the economy sucks. Environment is worsening: It's a well known fact that Bush has been dismantling protections, even though BOTH parties agree it's important to help the environment. Terrorism is up: Americans know that we are no longer loved around the world, or respected. Schools are in deep trouble: Americans ALL realize that the No District Left Unpunished is failing our children.

Can anyone explain why there could be polls showing Bush ahead?? Is it the way they calculate data? Is it "likely voters" rather than the people that really WILL vote this time? Or is it the ridiculous sample sizes of late... 700 voters.

Bush can't win. He didn't win last time, and that was before everyone realized what a fuckup he is. Let's be real; Millions have marched against Bush since he "took" office. The DNC convention was barely protested, and the RNC has turned NYC into Bagdhad in anticipation of up to 1 million protesters. HOW could Bush even come close to winning, except for cheating? I KNOW that Jim Baker and Ted Olsen quit their jobs so they could start on Bush's legal briefs already, for the upcoming fight. Bush can't win. There's not way.. not fair and square, anyway.

[Leilani]

6. Remember, Gore was the Veep

the media gave Gore a terrible time, but the people knew Gore...he was the incumbent.

the incumbent always has an advantage, because people are afraid of change.

and the voters were comfortable with Gore, but many do not know Kerry.