Nobody who voted for Gore in 2000 will change their vote to Bush in 2004.

[Lex]

And, those who want to see a change are more motivated to get up and VOTE in November.

From what I've seen, we've registered far more new voters this year.

And, all eyes are on Florida and teams of watchers will be showing up.

THEREFORE, I predict a win for John Kerry based on the preceding.

[ihaveaquestion]

1. I've been telling people this for months

Unless there's a blatent theft of the election by the bushies, it's in the bag for Kerry. Hands down!

[WI_DEM]

2. that's what pollsters are saying too

which is why Bush is working hard to increase the turnout among evangelicals who Rove thinks stayed home due to the report of W's drunk driving arrest the weekend before the election. I doubt too many stayed home though.

[Lex]

4. No, you're right, Bush had his maximum turnout in 2000.

The repukes were motivated to capture the White House, so they had a huge turnout.

And don't forget--James Carville says "If the incumbent is worried about firing up his base at this point in the election, then he's toast."

Kerry is harvesting new voters, above and beyond what Gore had in the bag in 2000.

Bush is just praying (literally) that he can fire up his base by scaring them about gays and abortion. And gays and abortion just doesn't seem to have the scare-power it used to anymore.

[leeman67]

3. well there are a few, the Dennis Miller types

who are cowards and think that that giving up our rights is worth it if it means we're "safer". There are some "Reagan Democrat" types who may have voted Gore in 2000, but since 9/11 have bought into the B.S. notion that ONLY Bush can protect us from evil.

But fortunately, they are a teeny-tiny minority. :)

[9119495]

6. DM liked Bush in 2000. Thought Gore was weak. nt

[Irishladdie]

5. Exaclty!!!

It's way more likely that independents that voted for * in 2000 will change their votes than anyone who voted for Gore changing theirs. We got this election unless we get diebolded..

[zaj]

7. Acutally I think there are a number of Gore voters who will vote Bush...

I've spoken to one. He's a conservative Dem, who is more impressed with Bush's agressive (foolish) foreign policy. And rails against the UN.

I don't know how many are like him, but they exist.

[Lex]

11. Minimal. Not nearly enough of that type to make a difference.

Here's why:

1. Motivation to actually vote is with the CHALLENGER'S voters, not the incumbent.

2. We have registered far more new voters, and voters who are motivated. (See #1 above.)

3. Many moderate Dems or Reagan Dems who believed Bush's "Compassionate Conservatism" and "bringing dignity to the White House" crap will SWITCH to Kerry because Bush lied to them.

4. Democrats who stayed at home because neither Bush nor Gore thrilled them in 2000, will vote in 2004. ( Conversely, Bush probably had the largest turnout because he had #1 (above) going for him in 2000. In 2004 he does not.)

[sampsonblk]

22. Ditto - We will have to bring them back with foreign policy...

...not healthcare.

I think the numbers are higher than some here would like to admit.

[rockymountaindem]

24. Yes, but do you know if he voted for Gore?

If he voted for Bush* the first time it doesn't matter much this time.

[zaj]

25. He says he voted for Gore. I suspect it's true.

... unlike John O'Neill who says he voted for Gore, but I don't believe it for a minute.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. We won't mention all the republicans

against the chimp. There's NO WAY he can win. He HAS use the electronic voting machines to steal it. :scared:

[sundancekid]

9. VERY TRUE, but it STILL matters in which states those Kerry voters live

... due to population shifts, if we take the same states as Gore did in 2000, we would end up with 260 electoral votes (down a net 6 EV's from 2000), and so we have to keep a focused eye on several other states as prizes, including a model that would show different combinations for a Kerry win ... this link gives a quick look at the electoral spread state-by-state, including shift in EV's and comparisons to 2000

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Table.htm

p.s. Rasmussen's "toss up states" assessment seems more conservative than, say, Zogby's -- but there you are ...

[vi5]

10. I know the polls are bunk but they don't hold your theory up...

In fact according to polls bush has increased the number of Dems leaning towards him vs. what he received against Gore in 2K. i think there are plenty of former Gore voters who will be swayed by their natural fear.

[Lex]

13. Polls usually report "likely voters" so they miss

out on all the new voters, and newly motivated voter (who might not have voted in 2000 at all).

That's why the polls won't reflect this.

[vi5]

18. What about "registered voter" polls? They factor in...

..people who didn't necessarily vote last time.

[iwantmycountryback]

21. They don't count younger voters

And people from 18-24 are in favor of Kerry by about 30-40 points over Bush. Polls don't count these people.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. Don't Believe The Hype - This Is Post 9/11

I am hardly the one to defend Bush's reaction to it, but there are plenty of people - including people who voted tepidly for Gore - that believe in Bush's jingoism.

But that hardly means that Bush hasn't lost more than he has gained, so chin up.

[Lex]

14. The number of people voting "Anybody But Bush" this year has risen

dramatically, I'd think.

There were probably no ABB voters in 2000 like there will be in 2004.

[liveoaktx]

15. Let's not forget the Nader voters

who ONLY voted for him last time on Green Party grounds (for that 5 percent) and never dreamed Bush would be this bad.

[kwolf68]

16. I hate to admit it

But I did not vote for Gore in 2000. I am ashamed because I am such an unabashed environmentalist, but I didn't. I didn't vote for Scrub either, but didn't vote Gore. This time there is no question where my vote is heading.

[Lex]

17. See? You are motivated for a change from Bush and

so you will vote this year for Kerry.

I think this will happen a lot. Particularly for Dems who didn't even bother to show up and vote for Gore--they are motivated to get Bush out.

Bush voters, however, were at their maximum voter motivation in 2000 when THEY wanted a change and have to an (R) in the White House.

Our Dem voter turn out should spike way up from 2000. Bush's will be about the same, or less.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. One pathetic exception

Dick Morris

I heard him say it on C-SPAN a couple months ago while he was plugging his book.

[Lex]

23. Good, the Repukes can have Mr. Toe-Sucker.

I'm sure the Dems can win without Dick Morris :puke:

[fujiyama]

20. There will be some

I think Kerry will get 90-95% of the Gore voters. Some will crossover -- the Ed Koch/Zell Miller types -- those that believe "OMG The terraists are gonna kill us and only Bush can save us".

Of course the small number that does defect will be more than offset by independants and moderate republicans that feel duped by Bush, Naderites, and first time voters (there will be quite a few).