incumbents who didnt have a double digit lead at this point never won

[59millionmorons]

Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.



Don't ever forget this. Now SMILE

[whalerider55]

1. smiling

but none of those incumbents lacking a double-digit lead had karl rove, utterly no scuples about running a campaign, and as polarized a nation (and as blatantly polarizing a strategy) as our boy-child in the WH.

and a lapdog, leghumping, scrap-begging press to boot.

whalerider55

still smiling. but watching my back

[Mrs_Beastman]

2. Thant's reassuring, thanks

[whalerider55]

3. Mrs. B

i'm all for our guy K, buhleive me.
but i want a clear-eyed view of the landscape and a strategy that is both pro-active and reactive.

it's just my onnoxious style, i guess. i just wanna know what the scene looks like.

i actually an optimist, and an idealist. and an elected official, albeit a minor one. forewarned if forearmed.

and the R-weasels are the spawn of the devil.
no scruples. so we need to be prepared, thass' all.

whalerider55

[Devil Dog Dem]

4. When you say "at this point" do you mean prior to his convention?

Or at the end of August. If the later, I take no comfort in what you are saying in that no moden conveniton has been this late, so those other numbers you cite were post convention, and Bush very may well have a double digit lead this time next week (perish the thought, I know).

If the former, then that stat is a great one!

So which is it demdem?

[Zynx]

5. Clinton had a double digit lead, 12 pts.

Reagan, 11 or 12, I can't quite tell. Nixon had a gigantic lead as did Johnson and Eisenhower. Bush follows no historical path that I can line up, though it's kind of like 1976 was at this point in the race.

All of them opened up bigger leads after their conventions btw.

[59millionmorons]

7. Yes

Yes prior to the convention, but read the next paragraph. Were it say's the average of an incumbent after his election they have lead by 16 points. Do you really think Bush will reach that? I don't.


Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.
Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.
On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.

[eleny]

6. OK