Kerry wins Electoral College vote 307-231

[59millionmorons]

I take all the results from 2000. I take every state Gore won or lost by 50,000. I add 50,000 to his totals. I do this because I believe Kerry will take 50,000 Bush voters from Bush in just about every state (Iraq,economy,jobs,health care etc)and they will go to Kerry. These are the states I believe Kerry will win. He will not even need some of these states.
AR
CA
CT
DC
DE
FL
HI
IL
IA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
PA
RI
WA
WV
WI

[jefferson_dem]

1. Looks perfectly achievable...

Even without OH, we still win. FL and WI are key.

[59millionmorons]

2. Sort of

If Kerry wins Florida it's over with or without WI. If all of the votes are counted in FL Kerry will win. But I dont see it being that close. I see Kerry winning by over 60,000.

[AndyTiedye]

3. Florida is Still Close Enough to Steal

In Florida, 90,000 votes is close enough to steal, as we found out in 2000.
Now they've got Diebold, so we probably would need to be up 2-1 to win there.

[mdguss]

4. Maybe, BUT

Who knows about that "felon" list. Do NOT take anything for granted. Kerry's in a good position to win the electoral college, but Bush has many things up his sleeve. If you live in one of the contested states, talk to your neighbors, get people to vote, etc. If you don't, travel to one of those states and do likewise. If our side rests on its laurels for even a second, Bush will go blowing by and actually get elected this time.

[59millionmorons]

5. Medicare will doom Bush in Florida

I have first hand experience about this. My grandparents who live in Florida and didnt vote in 2000 will be voting for Kerry because they dont like the changes Bush made in medicare. They also have lots of friends that will be doing the same. It really will not be that difficult to win in Florida.