Key Midwest swing states are leaning towards Bush (LA Times)

[WI_DEM]

President Bush is leading Sen. John F. Kerry in three hotly contested Midwestern states, despite continued doubts about the country's direction and the administration's policy choices, new Times polls have found.

Bush has opened small leads--within the surveys' margin of error--in Ohio and Wisconsin, staes where the presidential race was closer in times polls taken in June. The new Times survey also finds Bush ahead in Missouri, though by a narrower margin than in June.

Missouri
Bush 46%
Kerry 44%

Wisconsin
Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

Ohio
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

Kerry trails in the three states even though a majority of voters in each say the country is not better off because of Bush's policies and "needs to move in a new direction."

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll27aug27,1,1350122.story?coll=

I live in Wisconsin, but in Madison. Madison is solid for Kerry--no doubt about it, but in rural areas where Bush has been working hard even going to places like Hudson and Chippewa Falls--he is strong. I hate to say it but Wisconsin is the blue state from 2000 which I'm most worried about losing this time. I'm not saying Kerry won't win it--but it is going to be very close--just like 2000 and Nader's presence on the ballot will not help.

Missouri is the best news of the polls which were all taken from Saturday thru Tuesday and have a plus or minus of 4 percentage points.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Cheeseheads post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x115539

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. What Happened To Wisconsin...

Even the Duke carried Wisconsin...

[Zynx]

4. Many people gave in to Tommy Thompson's right-wing populism

"I'm going to reduce your taxes and fight crime and I'm going to tell the poor to go fuck themselves." That sort of message resonated with a lot of people in the state.

[Rivermont]

5. It is not over until it's over....

plenty of time left.

[WI_DEM]

6. things go in cycles

remember prior to Dukakis' win in 1988, Wisconsin had voted for the GOP candidate for president in four of the previous five elections. Johnson carried it in his landslide in '64 but JFK lost it in '60 and Carter narrowly carried it in '76.

[Joanne98]

3. I'm in Ohio and "It's the Christians stupid".

The Gawd damned preachers are "preaching for Bush". While handing out food at the same time. Disgraceful.........

[Zynx]

7. That was a small sample size so I'm not that worried.

Though the state will be close.

[progressivebydesign]

24. These teeny sample sizes are way unprofessional.

That's why I'm not getting too freaked about these polls lately. They are rampant. TOO MANY POLLS!!!

[SaveElmer]

8. These polls are not good for Bush...look at his numbers

He still cannot break 50%...even in states where he should be way ahead (based on past patterns) like Missouri and Ohio. The reason he is ahead is because Kerry's support went to undecided. Probably a nick from the Swift Boat ads. Three weeks of the media flogging Kerry and his military record, and this is all Bush has to show for it. Bush and Rove cannot be happy about these results

[LynnTheDem]

9. I don't get it

65% say US is heading wrong direction.

We ALL know bush will continue in that direction come hell or as many dead as it takes.

So WTF would ANYONE in the 65% VOTE for him?????!!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. We only need to hold Wisconsin

meanwhile things look good for us in Missouri.
All in all I'd say Bush is more on the defensive in states he is expected to hold than we are.

[michigandem2]

11. but let me say that Michigan is considered a battle ground

state and PA is as well and they both show Kerry leading...it makes news when Bush gets a few pts ahead...I am not buying ONE poll when some others show him ahead in 14 out of 16 states...

and Michigan is SO blue...it amazes me we are considered a close or even winnable state for Bush...the side of the state I live on is more red..but Detroit...makes us blue

[RazzleCat]

12. Missouri The Buckle in the Bible Belt

Live in Missouri, excluding St. Louis and Kansas City extreme Bible Belt. The only way for Kerry to get my state is to get 100 % turn out in the metro areas. Remember our bible belt voted for Ashcroft, if the metro areas had not voted for the dead guy en mass Ashcroft would have won.

[pstokely]

20. they also chose a dead guy over Ashcroft

nt

[hadrons]

13. WSJ says Kerry's ahead in most of the battleground states ....

and he's put off running ads (while Chimpy's went on a $50 million spending spree on them) ... still its discouraging to see so many people get shit on by the Chimp on the top of their heads and then say "thanks for the free hat, W.!!!" Normally I wouldn't care, but these idiots won't fall on themselves, but on us too

[quinnox]

14. This might be close to as good as it gets for Bush

He will probably add slightly after Repub convention.

But the horse race is still very close, Bush has leads that are way too close for comfort in must-win states for him like Tennessee (leads by 2%), Virginia (leads by 4%) and Missouri (2%).

If Kerry can take any one of these states, he will win the election even if Bush takes Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. This assumes of course Kerry winning all the Dem states Gore won.

[speedoo]

15. I'm ignoring this LA Times poll.

Remember the Gallup poll that showed a "negative" convention bounce for Kerry? That was an outlier and I think this LA Times poll is as well. In almost every respect, it appears to be way too positive for dumbya.

[fujiyama]

16. LA Times polls

are very often very friendly to democrats, but I don't think they are reliable anyways. I think they had Bustamante ahead during the recall.

Still, I think there definetely has been a slip in the polls for Kerry. Several other states (like MI) have also tightened according to other polls.

[DaveinMD]

17. Don't get worked up

about one poll. Most of the other polls show Kerry leading in WI and about even in MO. Also, these polls were taken before Kerry's counterattack. Don't get wrapped up in polls for the next two weeks. After that, the race will settle back down and we can take inventory of where we are.

[WI_DEM]

18. thanks

I know, but I live here too and we are in some trouble here. I know some people desparage the UW Survey Center polls which also show Bush ahead in this state, but here as far as I know they are considered a respectable organization and the papers which sponsor them--Capital Times and Milwaukee Journal Sentinel are not right wing by any means. I'm not saying Wisconsin is lost, but there is a feeling in the air here, from my perspective, working on various campaigns and talking to people that it is very close here and that Bush may actually be leading.

[DaveinMD]

19. it may

very well be quite close. It was extremely close there the last time as you know. Kerry just started a counter attack and the Republicans are going into their convention. It will get a little worse, but then it will get a little better. Keep working. And don't get discouraged. This is a race that is polling in the margin of error everywhere. This means the election will be won by whoever gets their voters out. This means hard work will win this election.

[Chili]

21. I live in Ohio...

...and I despair for my state. Don't count on Ohio. I was clean amazed that Clinton carried it twice.

Having said that, Kerry can still win - even handily - without Ohio AND without Florida. I suspect he will have to. But not without Wisconsin and Missouri.

Yet it's still early. And we haven't seen the Swiftboat liar backlash yet. I think that will offset any bounce from the convention. Nobody panic yet, we still have 2 months to go.

[DaveinMD]

23. I really believe

we will win Florida. Ohio I'm not counting on.

[alcuno]

22. The Catholic Vote - We haven't had a chance to vote for a Catholic

since John F. Kennedy in spite of the fact that around 25% of the population is Catholic. 32% of the people in Wisconsin are Catholic and Kennedy won 83% of the Catholic vote nationally.

I keep on telling people that Catholics, in general, will vote for another Catholic just because..... How do I know that? Years of Catholic school, aunts and uncles with 9 and 10 kids, and not a one, not a single one, married outside of the Church.