New State Polls - Pennsylvania: O +5; Nevada: O +5; New Mexico: O +13; Colorado: M + 1

[TeamJordan23]

The latest TIME/CNN numbers from key states:

Colorado: McCain 47, Obama 46
Pennsylvania: Obama 48, McCain 43
Nevada: Obama 49, McCain 44
New Mexico: Obama 53, McCain 40

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/27/timecnn-battleground-polls/

[berni_mccoy]

1. WHOA! Those Are HUGE Gains! Especially Nevada and NM!!!!

[Thrill]

2. Obama's strategy to do ad specific states. Seems to be working in Neveda

[endthewar]

19. Nevada has a Ron Paul problem for the Republicans

They threw his supporters under the bus. At the Nevada Republican State Convention for electing delegates, the Paul supporters started winning and they shut it down by postponing it, then canceled it, then elected delegates in favor of McCain instead via a conference call. I knew it would come back to bite them in the ass. :rofl:

[livetohike]

3. Some good news

Look at NV and NM :-). I want to see the latest AZ poll. I'll bet McCain is close to losing his home state.

[scheming daemons]

4. Holy shit! So much for NM being a tossup.

[Connie_Corleone]

5. But, but, but...THE NATIONAL POLLS!!

Good job Obama campaign!!

:yourock:

[JaneQPublic]

6. Looks like holding the DNC out west was a good idea! (nt)

[FVZA_Colonel]

7. If we can take all the Kerry states plus the first three,

we'll win; no questions about it. I'd love to have Colorado, and I'm glad to see that McCain only has had a 1 point bump, but I'm just not sure we'll be quite able to overcome the Religious Right in Colorado Springs.

[chitty]

8. Well I'm sure all that you're gonna hear from CNN is

How bad Obama's doing in Colorado.

And is it because of his Hillary problem.

[Hope And Change]

9. I was thinking the same.LOL.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Look at NM! Wow.

All good...

CO will flip.

[K8-EEE]

11. WOW! GO GO GO NEW MEXICO!

GREAT!

[Thrill]

12. They need to start Polling Montana. My cousin out there, just keeps saying

Obama is very popular there.

[cyndensco]

21. If Montana folk are as down home as their governor,

it MUST be Obama country. :D

Go Obama!

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Just need one more state and we win.

Right now, with these results and counting all of Kerry's states, plus Iowa, Obama and McCain are exactly tied at 269-269. That's without Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Colorado and Montana.

JUST ONE MORE!

[PolNewf]

20. It would be awesome if Montana put Obama over the top n/t

[mzmolly]

14. Now, to KEEP the momentum

and ride it into the White House.

[apnu]

15. NM?!?!? Holy Point-Gain Batman! (nt)

[LongDistanceRunner]

16. Look at the Silver State shine! Nevada for Obama!!

McPissinhisCornflakes must have steam coming out of his ears about now.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

17. These gains are only going to increase after Hillary's speach.... FOLKS, we are in good shape!

[Abacus]

18. Great, my EV tally is now 283 - 255 Obama

Date	Day	Obama	McCain	
8/7	-3	318	220	
8/8	-2	274	264	-FL,MI
8/11	1	265	273	-CO
8/12	2	252	286	-VA
8/13	3	252	286	
8/14	4	252	286	
8/15	5	261	277	+CO
8/16	6	261	277	
8/17	7	261	277	
8/18	8	261	277	
8/19	9	261	277	
8/20	10	261	277	
8/21	11	266	272	+NV
8/22	12	283	255	+MI
8/24	14	273	265	-NM,NV
8/26	16	273	265	
8/27	17	283	255	+NM,NV

Edit: I've been tracking since May, but have only kept history
since 8/11

[Froward69]

22. Down 1 here in Colo

because most everyone I know see the convention as a huge hassle... Dems, I's and especially R's.

I have every confidence it will go up after the convention is over.

[book_worm]

23. that's what I like to hear.

[Patiod]

24. I think Biden helped in SE Pennsylvania

which is where a huge chunk of the PA population lives. LynneSin might not like it, but SE PA thinks of Delaware as a Philadelphia suburb (well, not sLower Delaware, but the part where everyone actually lives)

[Awsi Dooger]

25. The Nevada and New Mexico numbers aren't reality

Believe them if you must. They wouldn't come close to holding up if the vote were today.

That's why state polls are such garbage. I always get a belly laugh at posters who mock national polls. They have no idea they are essentially harpooning themselves, by embracing state polls that have zero chance to align with the national margin.

Does anyone honestly believe New Mexico is suddenly 10 points more blue than the nation as a whole, :rofl:

Best of luck.

And I've lived in Nevada for 20+ years. Sorry, but the cow counties are allowed to vote. This state is 35-37% self-identified conservatives. The high number of Hispanics are either illegal, not yet 18, or not registered. Our numbers won't increase until those aspects change with time, along with Clark County participating in greater percentage. The fundamentals of this state don't equate to a 5 point Democratic victory unless we win nationally by the same amount. Right now Obama does not lead nationally by 5 points. Every local political analyst talks about the GOP advantages statewide in Nevada. If we overcome them, it will be narrowly.

But again, believe anything you want. State polls are high comedy by definition.

[darius15]

26. Obama down 1 in CO, but up 5 in NV

that's very unlikely, because those states are quite similar demographically. And if Obama wins NM by 13 points, it will be a landslide and a half. Obama is safely ahead in NM and PA, while he's tied in NV and CO.