Gallup: Obama 45, McCain 44

[DavidDvorkin]

Gallup says this:

"A better night for Obama in Gallup's Tuesday tracking interviews ... suggests that a convention bounce could develop."

[fencesitter]

1. bounces work both ways...

don't get complacent!

[Teaser]

2. Gallup telegraphed their polling from today with that statement

a bit, I think

[Teaser]

3. Hey DavidD

Do you have all this data in excel form? I think you mentioned once that you did with Rasmussen.
If so, could I have some? I've developed some code that uses a Bayesian guessing strategy to arrive at the "Best guess estimate" for a single day's sample. It is working nicely on simulated data. But i'd like to take a crack on real data.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Not the Gallup data

I only did it with Rasmussen so that I could generate the graphs. But since Gallup already does graphs, I've never bothered.

I played around with the Rasmussen data, trying to come up with a daily number, but never succeeded. It should be straightforward, but the number Ras provides is rounded off, and that messed up my simple calculation.

[Teaser]

5. I'm using some pretty advanced statistical methodology

to get the estimates. I'll post some demo data sometime, maybe, to show people how it works.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Cool

I wasn't trying any kind of estimation. I thought I could do it with a straight, simple calculation, but the rounding defeated me.

If you want the Rasmussen spreadsheet, I could send it to you.

[Teaser]

7. that would be grand. I'll send you my email addy

in a private message.