I caught a lot of shit for saying this a few months ago

[WilliamPitt]

And deservedly so. Someone could probably dredge the post up; I know people have it bookmarked, because I've had it thrown in my face a few times.

I wrote it in anger. Basically, I said something along the lines of, "When the main election season comes, and you hysterics get a taste of the ram, you're going to get turned to ash, screaming as you die," or something to that effect. I can't remember the specific language, but I do remember that it was not very nice.

But it had a point. And we're seeing the truth of it these days.

Two days ago this place was sunshine and roses. Now it's like being in a dungeon. This place is like a bipolar person with 20,000 personalities. It's either all joy or all death.

Let me paint an analogy.

You're on an old-fashioned sail ship out on the Atlantic, making the crossing. You have a choice between two crews.

The first crew gets into heavy seas, with the large waves. Every time a large wave comes, the crew screams, "O MY GOD A WAVE, WE'RE GONNA FUCKIN DIE!!!" After cresting the wave, when the boat is down in the trough, the crew screams, "EVERYTHING IS GREAT!!! I'M SO HAPPY!! IT DOESN'T GET BETTER THAN THIS!!" And then the next wave comes, etc.

The second crew gets into heavy seas, with the large waves. Every time a large wave comes, the crew screams, "OK fellas, here comes another wave. Lash the sails to the mast, secure the provisions, and if anyone goes overboard, I'll fuckin kill them myself." After cresting the wave, when the boat is down in the trough, the crew screams, "OK, we made it, but another wave is coming. Get ready, don't be surprised it the bastard is over the topmast. We'll make it, but let's be ready."

Which crew would you rather go to sea with?

DU is an example of the first crew. Face it. Maybe try to improve that.

Polls are bullshit, meant to keep the race close. Election races have ups and downs. If you commit suicide or dance like a crazy person at each turning of fate, you're going to burn out and be useless. Worse, you're going to spin others off into bedlam by force of your approach.

So there it is.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. To be specific

Polls are a picture of a moment in time

What matters about polls are... the trends


That said, I do think they are more bullshit than usual since
I'd say that they have been heavily managed and we have seen
quite a bit of Push Polling and astro turfing going on

Even then, your analogy with the waves... the waves are bad, but they are not as bad as they could be... from our POV, since those
trends are still good and... oh boy Rove was heavily on the defensive YESTERDAY on fox... I got to see it as I was going by and went, ain't that Rove? Lets see what he has to say in the propaganda department.

;-)

[DemMother]

35. Self-deleted--posted in wrong place. Reposted it.

[freetobegay]

2. I have been so depressed to day reading posts on DU

You'd think Armageddon was here!

If I had a nickel for ever time someone today said we need to watch & say what we do or it will be used against us (SO FUCKING WHAT)! We are fighting the good fight & keeping the pressure on & I'll be damned if I'm going to ask anyone to change.

Blast me if you want for this comment but, "take no prisoners"!

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. That is the spirit

As is and I have said it before here on DU

We are at the end game stage, and they are getting quite desperate

If you think things are bad now (insofar as pukes are concerned) I trust they will reach for new lows so do not be too surprised about it, or depresed... in fact is ia good thing

[Birthmark]

3. Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

That's just my way of saying I agree. Well, it's actually Homer Simpson's way...but I still agree.

[WilliamPitt]

8. LOL

Nice reference. :)

[Terran]

4. Will, you exaggerate a tad.

I'm all sunshine and roses no matter what happens. ;)

[Sugarbleus]

6. LOL...."O MY GOD A WAVE, WE'RE GONNA FUCKIN DIE!!!"

Thanks Will. :D

Did you mean Bi polar with mood swings or Multiple personality disorders...? (lol) :evilgrin: O8) :evilfrown:

[blm]

71. The original Kerry support crew here always maintained course

even though it was predicted many times by others and the media that we had already crashed.

Keep the eyes on the prize. This nation's democracy is worth the fight.

[Sugarbleus]

88. I so agree..."This nation's democracy is worth the fight." thnx n/t

[WindRavenX]

7. It just amazes me...

...on how much stock people put in these BS CNN/Gallup polls. They mean NOTHING!
My great English teacher last semester summed up meaning like this-"there can be no meaning without context".
Many people seem to ignore the context that these polls are placed.
Kerry is leading where it counts: electoral votes and in most swing states (Ohio will go Kerry in the end, IMO).

[nomatrix]

25. Here is a sample of the questions they ask

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12694

It is usually around 1000 likely voters over 18.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handle his job as president?

(What they don't do is compare it to anything or give you a middle ground) This is where he get's the 51%. But when they ask about they economy, Iraq, terrorism, the numbers drop especially compared to January. So even though the media tells you the other statistics all you hear is 51% job approval ratings.

[MikeG]

9. I spent the day looking at the census figures and calling Bush toast.

Whatever polls I saw seemed OK to me.

Don't count me with the doom and gloom crowd.

Remember, I think the Steelers are going to do good this year.

[WilliamPitt]

10. I put you in the eternal optimist column

:)

[MikeG]

42. Here's the results of a poll asking margin of victory on August 18.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=633422

Most chose 5-8 points.

[Norquist Nemesis]

11. Good analogy, Will

I'm starting to consider avoiding Friday nights around here. That always seems to be when Bush drops some news bomb and DU frets for the next three days till we see the sun come out again on Monday.

[maine_raptor]

12. At times like this, I always remember what my Poli-Sci Prof once

said;

"The only poll that counts is the one with the ballot boxes."

Of course this was before SCOTUS got to vote twice, but I think it does still remain true.

[annxburns]

13. Weird, because today I was expecting ...

the polls to be a lot worse. After all Kerry has gone through three weeks of smear and fear. The polls were taken in the middle of the swift vets hysteria - and they are still very good. Bush is up by a couple of points in some but he is still under 50%. The vast majority of undecideds will break for Kerry given right track/wrong track.

Now, Kerry is fighting back quite effectively and I think the polls will show a backlash - this will come in the middle of the convention so it may be a wash. All in all, Kerry is in tremendously good shape. Remember Reagan did not blow out Carter until the last two weeks of the race - I see a lot of parallels between this race and that one.

so the angst on this board more amuses me than pisses me off, but I feel sad that people get so up and down. I keep reminding myself that it will be winter when we vote, and the race is a marathon and not a sprint.

[eleny]

14. OMYGODWILLISLOSINGIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GoneOffShore]

15. Thanks for posting this

As I have had a dreadful day watching these effing polls and the depressing posts as everyone here goes into maximum panic mode.
We all need to heed the advice of Will, and weather the storm.
It's the same advice that my dad used to give me, albeit in a different form. 'This to shall pass away.' And he was a die hard Republican who thought FDR was Satan's asshole. (though I think he changed his mind in his later years. I know my mother did because I found the canceled checks made out to the DNC and the Sierra Club.)

:bounce:

[janx]

26. What on earth are you talking about?

Just out of curiosity...

[arewenotdemo]

58. Thank gawd for mothers

:loveya:

Well, except for my kid's.

[merh]

16. I am a member of the 2nd crew!

I don't want *&co. to get too worried about the polls, so I don't care what they show. If *&co. get too worried, I fear what they will do, how much more harm they can do to our nation. Let the shits think they are winning, let them get cocky and lazy. I know they are not.

We have to fight and stay involved and get everyone we know to the polls in November, we cannot afford to become too complacent, too much is at stake.

Focus groups and polls are for the lobbyist and the advertisers - they reflect what the pollster wants them to reflect.

Now, if it is okay with you Captain Will, may I go below, I took some of that motion sickness medicine and I am tired. But I will ride the waves with you, I just get sea sick from time to time so I take drammemine (sp).

Catch a wave and we're sitting on top of the world!!!!!

[Poiuyt]

17. Now I feel so stupid!

I KNEW I shouldn't have danced like a crazy person last week.

[rumguy]

18. The amazing thing to me is that polls have *barely* moved

They're still within the MOE.

Most importantly, Kerry is ahead in the battleground states.

Spears.

[madmax]

Damn it Will...now I'm seasick.

:evilgrin:

In response to your question which ship would I rather be on? Neither. I'll take ship #3 - The LOVE Boat. :P

[Catherine Vincent]

19. I think a lot of the ones that act that way are infiltrators.

[AZCat]

20. I like your points, but...

Perhaps we just view DU differently, but I see it as a support group - a place for people to come and let out those emotions that we work so hard to hide in the outside world. I would much rather DU seem psychotic if it helps all of us be more even-keeled in our interactions with outsiders, especially those in the shrinking "undecideds" group.

And speaking for myself, when bad things happen in the campaign I feel MUCH more sane after reading the reactions of other people here. I think, "that news wasn't THAT bad," and get some perspective.

Then again - you have been here longer than me and can comment on the effectiveness of this more authoritatively. Are people burning out because of the up-and-down nature of our posts? I don't know anyone at DU in person (I don't think so, anyway) so I can't vouch for how their behavior differs from their DU selves. What do you think?

[WilliamPitt]

23. People are definitely burning out

Folks here have been at battle stations for three years now - day in and day out. I didn't write this post to shame anyone, but there was a time when this place could go to battle stations without half the crew hurling themselves under the propeller. I've been here three years and four months. Maybe my perspective is old-fashioned. Not gonna stop trying, tho.

[AZCat]

32. I wouldn't say "old-fashioned"...

That's what I was looking for, and what I think is important. Newer DUers (like me) have lots to learn from those who have been here longer. I haven't seen very many DUers come and go (not counting the trolls), so I don't understand how these processes affect a person. If it is stressful (in a negative way) perhaps we could think of ways to help take the anxiety down a notch - this thread seems to be a good start. We do still have ten (or so) weeks to go before the election, and things are likely to get even more crazy.

I also remembered this (slight tangent) that might help some people:

The Master Speed
By Robert Frost

No speed of wind or water rushing by
But you have speed far greater. You can climb
Back up a stream of radiance to the sky,
And back through history up the stream of time.
And you were given this swiftness, not for haste,
Nor chiefly that you may go where you will,
But in the rush of everything to waste,
That you may have the power of standing still--
Off any still or moving thing you say.
Two such as you with such a master speed
Cannot be parted nor be swept away
From one another once you are agreed
That life is only life forevermore
Together wing to wing and oar to oar.

I always liked this poem and it seems relevant to me.

[KC21304]

21. I'm looking forward to Kerry having a news conference

after the convention and reading the entire 1971 testimony with questions to follow. The reading will be so powerful he will pull away for good.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

22. I hear ya, loud and clear

[Terry_M]

24. Using your analogy

The first crew looks much more fun. The second is just dull.

[WilliamPitt]

28. The second crew will make it to port

If that's 'dull,' sign me the fuck up.

[AP]

49. Nothing is more fun than winning. Nuthing hurts more than losing.

[mzmolly]

27. There are two ships here at DU, one has a crew like the first ship

*but they yell louder* and the other has a crew like the second.

I want to be certain we recognize that.

I happen to take turns on different ships from time to time :hi:

[rockymountaindem]

29. I didn't think it was so bad today.

I was impressed. I thought people were upbeat.

[AVID]

30. You, too, contribute to that roller coaster,

When you know that there are many on this board who crave the next "big" story, and live and die by the morning headlines, and still you tease with bits of developing, potential bombshells- claiming HUGE, breaking stories soon. Then the story fizzles away, poll numbers come out and the DU masses dive.

The same thing is repeating with the Medals story. Lots of anticipation, big expectations, fizzle tomorrow, RNC bounce and DU dive.

Tiring!

[WilliamPitt]

36. Um

I came through with my story, and it was fairly big. It took four hours to develop. Four hours out of the life of the average DUer isn't much to ask. Four hours to hold off on the hari kari knives.

[EST]

61. Poll?

What poll?

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Politics basically don't exist during the Olympic Games

The only swift event on Thursday was we swept the 200. Really, what's the chaos? The lousy job creation numbers of the past couple months, and the likelihood that continues until November, will play a greater role in the right track/wrong track numbers and therefore the election than anything these aging vets dare to invent.

Like every presidential year, I'll begin paying attention to national and state polls beginning two weeks past the final convention. Anything prior to that is a waste of my semi-sanity.

Regarding the ads, my only comment dates back to the primary season, when plenty of us who supported other candidates (myself, Edwards) pointed out that Kerry's war record was not going to be the flawless, trump card utopia that some were envisioning, either in swaying the military vote or how he would be viewed as a potential commander in chief. Those infantile attempts during the primary season to superimpose Hanoi Jane alongside Kerry at a rally could only lead to something much more sinister, i.e. Republican.

[AnnitaR]

33. No gloom and doom for me! No wide mood swings either.

I actually had a smile on my face coming into work tonight! Why? Because I had just spent the last 3 hours watching MSNBC and watching the truth finally being told on cable news. Hardball, Countdown, and Norville, were great tonight.

I've not been panicky one way or the other about this thing for a long time.

Does that mean I'm just going to sit back and not do my part? Nope. I have just seen things take a turn here in the heavily Repub East Tennessee where I live. If I can see the the turn here I am positive that it has occurred in most everywhere else as well. On average I see 10 Kerry stickers for every Bush stickers. I'd say I get at least 2 or 3 people a week honking at me and waving and doing the thumbs up because of my Kerry/Edwards sticker and my other two anti-Chimpy stickers on my car. That is just not supposed to happen in this heavily Pub part of the state.

So, I am perfectly content with the way things are going. There are going to be ups and downs. However I am more and more convinced every day that things are going to work out just fine.

I mean heck I saw TN shown as a BLUE state on an electoral map tonight on MSNBC! Can't get much more re-assuring than that!

[Bake]

34. O Captain My Captain

I'm on whatever crew Will is on.

I suspect it's the second crew...

Bake
Sucking it up for the next wave!

[seabeyond]

37. hey, mine wasnt the polls, was 3 hours in the hot sun with a fundie

you do that and see if you dont get down, lol lol

hubby gave me yummy, well ya know, so i am all better

:toast:

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

38. It's like those FedEx ads.

"We're doomed! Doomed!"
"We're doomed!"
"Doomed, I tell you!"

Viz: This evening's threads -- one every hour or so -- to the effect that the Swift Boat ads have DOOMED Kerry. Or at least damaged him. Well, no. The polls that we just got were actually taken as much as a week ago, before the major debunking took place. And with that, Kerry and * are still even in the polls. I submit they've done their worst, and it was barely a scratch. Now it's the Olympics, the Repub convention, and on to sopmething else. We need to chill, take our Haldol, and not let Tweety and Bob Novakula get our panties in a twist. We are not DOOMED.

[autorank]

39. I take STRONG exception!

I respect and admire your work. This post is an exception.

First, I've had the privilege of working with quite a few individuals with bipolar disorder. They never have multiple personalities. In fact, a characteristic of the condition is highly focused goal directed behavior.

Second, if you were ever on a ship, you'd want your crew staffed with more than a few bipolar individuals...believe it!

The tone of your response to the vicissitudes of DU's seemingly collective mood is exactly what you're complaining about. Relax, this is both a catharsis and a political action group. I've been using the online services since 1981 and this is the finest network application (what we called things like this in the 1200/2400 baud days) I've ever seen. The collective mood you imply is really thousands of individuals going to a safe place to blow off steam before returning to their political action (either on or off the network) and their personal lives.

Your desire for a uniformity of stable mood is about as likely as discovering a technique for herding cats. Relax, enjoy, I love the smell of passion on the internet...it smells like victory. Cheers!

[MrBenchley]

40. It seems like some folks here have never lived thru an election...

If Kerry doesn't respond within 15 minutes to anything, he's toast, according to some people here...

Take it from somebody who's been through Kennedy/Nixon and heard adults say seriously that if Kennedy won he was gonna build a gold throne for the Pope on the White House lawn (yeah, there were ignorant right wing loonies even back then) ... It's not the end of the world if Matt Drudge spouts some ignorant slander that goes unanswered for a couple weeks...

By the way, don't pay a bit of attention to what the polls say right now, either...watch what the candidates are doing. The public polls have small samples and are generally inaccurate, while the internal polls the parties actually pay attention to are kept under wraps.

Who is pResident Fucknuts running ads to, and where? He's spending his ad bucks on trying to rev up his voting base in the red states, and he's running little meetings with invitation-only folks who sign loyalty oaths. That means he's most worried that conservatives are going to stay home...and he's not even bothering to try to reach out to moderates and swing voters. And that's a sign of an incumbent in deep trouble, no matter what the polls in the news say.

When Junior Birdman landed on the SS Mission Accomplished last Spring, conservatives crowed that the race was over, and someone predicted that you'd be seeing that footage every day this election season. Well, if you see it, it's going to be because Kerry and the Democrats run the footage, and the GOP is going to yell "foul!"

Same way with the slime boat ads...that's turning out to be a tremendous stinkbomb. Give it another month and you'll have Faux Noise trying to pretend that Kerry was behind those ads somehow.

[ContinentalOp]

45. I'm sure many here have never followed an election closely before.

There's no crime in being young and naive is there? And I'm sure there are many folks here who are actually bipolar so lets cut everyone a little slack. Tensions are high and yes, there are certainly a lot of disruptors out and about as well. But despite all of the noise things aren't so bad here are they? DU is still one of the best, most lively and constructive online communities I have ever witnessed.

[DemMother]

41. I posted in the wrong place--meant it here and meant to say...

I liked the analogy--it revved me up...as you can probably tell. I got so worked up I didn't know what I was responding to. But anyway, here it is in the right place. I'll delete the other one.

I don't bother coming here for emotional or moral support. I just want evidence I can use with the waverers (is that a word?). I hide or ignore the threads that have anything negative to say about Kerry and then glean what information I need to make the case for for the Senator (and there have been some terrific posts along those lines). For a boost I go to sites like donkey rising, digby, america's blog, atrios...real fighters. I spent most of last week talking my mother and brother off the ledge--they'd watched too many cable shows about the SWL. My brother is back on track now. He doesn't have it easy, being one of the few Democrats in his (very) red state.


I was feeling a little worn out today and he called me to tell me about something he'd seen on the streets. He was behind an SUV with a couple Semper Fi marine bumper stickers. But he noticed a third sticker. And that's what gave him a lift. It said "Defend Democracy, Defeat Bush." He's back on track.

I'm the one all my friends call to get positive news (they also tease me mercilessly about only seeing one side). I've voted in nine presidential elections and worked in more than that. I've been deluded plenty of times--I thought McGovern had a chance, up until they called it for Nixon at 8:01 Chicago time. But I've never given up. And I'd far rather live with my delusions than go down to these assholes -- it's what they want. They want us demoralized and depressed and spreading that defeatism to others. It's one way to hold down the Democratic vote. Well, no one I know is going to do that--if I have to e-mail and talk to these flagging suckers every day for the next two months, that's what I'm going to do.

I HAVE HAD IT WITH BUSH. I am sick to death of these republicans and I WANT THEM GONE

[depakid]

43. That's kind of a false choice

There's a third (and probably a fourth and fifth crew) who've been to sea many times. The third crew doesn't overreact to a little squall, but recognizes larger weather patterns. The third crew remembers what the instruments said on the previous occasions when they were entering tempests, and sees fit to suggest course corrections.

In previous voyages, the third crew may well have once been part of what you call a second crew. And being well aware of the profits and perils at sea, are not only dead set against having their hopes dashed against the rocks again for the sake of their officers' vanity but are also hopeful about the gains to be had from a successful crossing.

Of course, it's only an analogy, but aside from the either/or, I think you chose an apt one. There are all types of folks here at DU- some are newer at the game than others, but I don't discount anyone's takes- at least not on that account. Some of the very best ideas come from those who "don't know enough" to say "hey, wait a minute, what about <fill in the blank>." I've seen high school kids more astute than jaded pros. My guess is that you have too.

What the jaded pros have, though, is experience- which is both a benefit and a detriment sometimes. They don't freak over every new poll, but sometimes they're so confidently set in their ways that they don't heed the cry of "oh fuck, we're about to get whaled on" when they should. They figure correctly there'll still be a job waiting somewhere after the storm, no matter what happens. The only trouble with that rationale is that this time, the stakes are WAY too high.

[DemBones DemBones]

44. Well said, dk, well said.

I have too many memories of too many races.

[Nordic]

46. Your first crew reminds me of my old girlfriend .......

Stormy weather ............

:)

Funny stuff, Will.

[ReadTomPaine]

47. You seem a bit 'wild eyed' Will, I don't know...

I think you may be a member of some shadowy group!

RTP

[Scorpious_Maximus]

48. So there it is.

Well said. :think:

- jb

[Elidor]

50. DU is an example of BOTH crews!

Very bipolar! And you will be wrong again, Will. In fact, you already have been. But this doesn't make me an oracle.

DU is our therapy. It doesn't have to be pretty, and it's not meant for your personal enrichment. Individual mileage may vary.

[SoCalDem]

51. YEP.. Polls are CRAP..

They are a manipulation tool to cover asses..

They are deliberately kept "oooh sooo close"..

Who wants to be the pollster who says "LANDSLIDE"..and it's a squeaker???

Americans are hardwired for "THE GAME"..politics must conform to the model.. Like a game, the lead changes hands often.. It keeps the excitement factor going.. and God knows, Americans must be excited at all times :)

It also covers for the upcoming "Dieboldization" that will probably occur in selected places.. Close means always being able to say "Ooooh, it was soooo close"..:(

[AZCat]

53. My new warped theory on the media and elections...

I agree with you - I think the media has too much invested in the election being close. It would be better if they weren't so dependent on an exciting (as defined by them) finish.

Perhaps we should take a cue from the world of sports. Events like the Super Bowl, where one event is the focus of all the attention, depend on a close match to be exciting. Other sporting events like the College Bowl Series for football and the early brackets of the NCAA basketball tournament play out differently because the networks can switch their coverage from a blowout game to one that is either just starting or coming to a close finish.

What if all the world elections were scheduled for the same day? That way ABC could cut from the blowout in the USA presidential election after it's clear that Kerry has cleaned the Shrub's clock, and switch to more exciting coverage for, say, the President of Burundi. This might promote a little more even coverage of news leading up to the election, instead of the obvious (at least to us DUer's) slant in hopes of stacking the deck for the worthless piece of sh***... Anyway, it might prove interesting, although I think it would be hard to convice the world to conform to 4-year elections.

[jrieth50]

79. Media is not keeping up with the public

I agree 100% with this theory of the media having too much invested. Don't you find it interesting that everything starts earlier and earlier with them every year? They know the average person watches 7 hours of television per day. All they have to do is plant the seeds in people's mind, wait a couple days for it to sprout and then run on it full bore.

It's very condescending that the media has to remind us how surprised they are that we care who is our chief executive after terror, war, record deficits... Think about how many stories on the election even today begin with 'the presidential election is heating up already and it's still x days until the election.' They were singing the same tune in the primaries. They know that the informed people are fed up with Bush. They know there is a bitter rivalry between many Americans, it's the story of the year. And it's the story that keeps on producing headlines and ledes.

[vetwife]

52. I guess I am a flip flopper but I won't show it to a Freeper

Polls don't realy mean anything until about 2nd or third week of September in my opinion. I am pretty up on our guy, I just don't trust their's. See there I go flip flopping.

[Democrat 4 Ever]

68. Only poll that REALLY counts is on November 2

The polls will bounce for another 4-6 weeks and then I think they will settle into what is leading up to election day. For the poll junkies - here is a recap of the latest polls. Compliments of http://www.pollingplace.com. *Note - some of the poll data is getting dated, its the latest available for the various services. Also, I laid it out in a nice little table but could get the html codes correct so it would display right - hope you can make sense.

BUSH vs. KERRY: Among likely voters; with leaners, where available. (See registered voters.)

Margin Includes Running- End Date Bush Kerry margin mates?

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 44 45 1 N

Gallup 8/25 50 47 3 Y

GWU Battleground 8/17 47 49 2 N

Zogby 8/14 43 50 7 Y

Gallup 8/11 50 47 3 Y

ICR 8/8 48 48 Y

Time 8/5 44 51 7 Y

Democracy Corps (D) 8/5 45 52 7 N

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 48 5 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/1 48 49 1 N

CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 51 47 4 Y

---------------------------------------------------------------------

BUSH vs. KERRY: Among registered voters; with leaners, where available. (See likely voters.)

Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes Running-

Margin Includes Running- End Date Bush Kerry margin mates?

Gallup 8/25 47 48 1 Y

Los Angeles Times 8/24 49 46 3 Y

IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 44 44 N

CBS 8/18 44 47 3 Y

Gallup 8/11 48 47 1 Y

ICR 8/8 45 50 5 Y

Time 8/5 43 51 8 Y

IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/5 43 49 6 N

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 46 3 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/1 45 52 7 N

American Research Group 8/1 46 49 3 N

CBS 8/1 43 49 6 Y
CBS 8/1 44 51 7 N

CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 48 48 Y

[Dr Fate]

54. We need to hold on and keep on fighting-any better ideas?

I did not think so!

Thanks, King!

[juajen]

55. Hi Will

So true. Batten down the hatches, crew. We're gonna make it. Keep on fighting, especially when things look really good.

[Guaranteed]

56. I'm actually surprised at how well I'm handling this.

I was pretty pissed at Kerry just today because it sounded like he was going along with Bush's wanting to get rid of 527's, but that's about it. This shit makes me nervous, but I think I'm doing pretty damned good. I know Kerry'll come back up once the convention is over and the news gets back to the bullshit in Iraq.

[Bongo Prophet]

57. Why I started posting

I put off posting until after convention, choosing to avoid the internecine primary wars, and not add to the noise. i did share wisdom from this board with offline friends to boost their spirite and let them know they are not alone, even in this red land of TX.

Now that it's "go time" I decided to add what little bit of good that I can.
No carping on the candidate.
No doom and gloom.
Only focus, strategy, ideas.
Celebrate sometimes. Share some historical background.
Try to learn from mistakes.
If someone feels panicky, try to encourage and not insult.
I hope I can live up to these goals. If not, feel free to slap me down!
O8)

[Name removed]

59. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cuban_Liberal]

60. "Maybe if dissent was allowed ..."

Last time I checked, it was allowed. However, some people confuse the word 'allowed' with the word 'enabled', or the word 'affirmed'. If dissenters are looking for people to stand by and cheer them on, then they'll be disappointed.

[Luminous Animal]

62. Last time I checked...

there are no republicans here unless they are "reformed" republicans.

Last time I checked, "progressive democrats" left this board and started their own discussion board.

Last time I checked, those who questioned Kerry's positions, were reminded about "the memo" that Kerry was now the candidate and all criticisms were ill-advised.

Last time I checked, anti-war people need not apply.

[WilliamPitt]

63. Last time I checked

you were 0-4 on complaints.

:eyes:

[GalleryGod]

70. Actually I Had to go to a BiPolar W/S with my Bride...

The DU Universe exhibits many of those qualities:think:

Be that as it may...Our Guy is NOT going to let us down!:bounce:

The Swift Boat smear just telegraphs how "Fair and Balanced" ALL the Press is going to be during Sept-Nov.:puke:

We're in a lot BETTER shape than any of us dreamed a year ago!

[mhollis]

73. no attempt to be fair

GalleryGod wrote:
just telegraphs how "Fair and Balanced" ALL the Press is going to be during Sept-Nov.

I would refer you to my earlier comment

[Toots]

64. Boy talk about the Pot and the Kettle

:shrug:

[MoonRiver]

65. ROFL!

Especially as I am one of those screaming OMG A WAVE!! :D

[mourningdove92]

66. Well said, Will

We all knew coming in to this that it would get very dirty. Kerry knows what he is doing. Do we?

Once the RNC convention is over, I believe we will see a major shift in Kerrys campaign.

[mhollis]

67. I have been catching a fair amount

Mainly because my opinion has not changed: Shrub will win even though he may be defeated again. Somehow, he'll pull it off. The Bush family is very much like the Kennedy family in the 1960s, they make election into a family and community project where everyone gets involved.

Additionally, the Republicans now have the media doing their work for them. This has tilted the bias considerably towards the right.

I have seen what happens when the so-called "impartial" media suddenly gets supportive of one idea or another. Our bias is subtle but, over time, very effective.

[TryingToWarnYou]

69. EXCELLENT OBSERVATION!!!

Now, if everyone just takes it to heart....

[Blue_Roses]

72. good analogy

last night my spouse and I were talking about the rollercoaster ride of this election and I likened it to a superbowl game. He's a panther :) fan and this is where he was in the scheme of things last year during football season. Biting his nails...

[Proud2BAmurkin]

74. Couldn't agree more. "mememe...Kerry's being hurt...memememe"

I wish they would cut it out too

[Myrina]

75. ... And then there's the 3rd crew ....

Who thinks that the entire voyage is a Love Boat cruise, and pays no attention to the waves, makes no preparation for any possible hurricanes, and floats happily along drinking Pina Colada's while some mighty big icebergs loom on the horizon because they're so blissfully ignorant to critical thought.

I see many, many people like that on DU who refuse to entertain the possibility that Kerry and/or his campaign team is not perfect and just might not win (or might get SCOTUS'd in the event of a win) despite the track record of the Rove Machine and the dull-mindedness of a vast majority of the electorate.

[molly]

76. Those people are NOT on DU

[goodhue]

77. Please don't paint us all with the hysterics of a few.

Many of us are basking in the sunshine despite the sky-is-falling crowd. They watch too much cable news and not enough weather vanes. In the real world Kerry tried a corn dog yesterday and talked cows with kids at Minnesota's greatest get together . . .

[cheezus]

78. We don't think as a bloc

Just because a handful is freaking out doom and gloom, don't assume that's everyone's take. It's NOT either all joy or all death. It's a hardy mix of each, and the ratio changes from day to day depending on the news.

[TWiley]

80. Maybe most of us are now toxic with anger over bush.

One more lie in the media, and I feel like punching the nearest bush republican right in the pie-hole.

I used to be more balanced and tolerant of those sick bastards; but it is difficult at best to take the high road any more.

Maybe this is an alternate explanation of your observation.

[NewJeffCT]

81. while I agree with you somewhat...

While I agree with you somewhat, I would like to say that I've been pretty consistently pessimistic! ;-)

However, that said, I don't know if it is specific people that are changing their tune on a daily/hourly basis. I just think if somebody posts something negative, the same people will agree with them... while, when somebody predicts a landslide for Kerry, a different group will agree with them. Because we are more active in posting now this close to the election, the number of posts & their changing tunes makes it seem like it is a roller coaster ride.

A year ago, we just wanted to defeat Bush and were all on the same page about that. Now, that we have a candidate, our convention is over and are in the nitty-gritty of the final weeks of the campaign where the end is in sight, people are just reacting to the 24/7 news cycle.

Think of it this way - if the New England Patriots were in the Super Bowl, the news cycle is every play. The Not-So-Swift Boaters blitzed & sacked our quarterback & caused him to fumble. However, in the scrum for the ball, it now seems we've picked up the ball and may make something positive out of it. If we do end up with this as a positive, we're just 1 step closer to a touchdown and just have to prepare for the next blitz or trick play.

[whalerider55]

82. agree and disagree

i agreee with you, will- this was always gonna be a scumbucket slimefest, advantage going to the thugs because they have the most experience with that kind of campaign- hell, they've made it a lifestyle choice.

as for panicking with the slightest quiver in the polls, my thinking is this. intuitively, i know that they are much farther apart than the polls show (advantage, Kerry). but i also made my mind up about who i was gonna vote for when i was ten years old. There is a perceptual game afoot, and whether we respect that or not, we have to acknowledge that and be prepared to repsond strategically to it.

not every car coming down the highway is gonna hit me, but it pays to figure out how to minimize getting hit and what to do if i find karl rove behind the wheel and swerving towards me.

you don't have to live in a toilet to know how to flush one.

as one who has just started posting, and has been a little more cautious in expressing euphoria over the likelihood that bush will be out of politics in january, i don't consider that panic.

i have great admirtation for your work and words, and feel a great sense of hope reading all the other posts here.

whalerider55

[mumon]

83. Yes:

Without hindrance there is no fear.

We shouldn't worry about defeat- just doing what we have to do to win.

And it may or may not mean playing dirty.

But there's too many problems (social security, unemployment, medical costs, Iraq) NOT to have faith that we can provide a better solution to the problem of George W. Bush.

[nolabels]

84. I am with the first crew, came on a couple of years ago

I think all these things we are seeing is just terrible. Lets turn back and go some place safe on solid ground.

We will never make it the way we are going :scared:


http://www.miracosta.cc.ca.us/home/gfloren/odyssey.htm

[Armstead]

85. THE DIFFERENCE is that waves are created by our side

You're right. A crew that is prepared and hopeful is better than one that is chaotic and gloomy.

BUT there is a difference in your analogy. The waves are largely (or at least 1/2) created by the captains on our side.

Waves are a force of nature, uncontrollable. One can rail and yell at nature or God all they want but there really is no one to get mad about at the rough sea. It just is.

But in this case, some of the waves are the reulst of our side's actions. Letting Bush get away with the Swift Boats smear for too long initially. Not calling Bush out more directly on some many of the lies. Sending out limp weenies to the talk shows to combat the Bush slicksters and bullies...etc.

So it's normal to get frustrated and angry and yell when we see Democratic leaders needlessly helping to create the waves. Or at least not stopping the GOP more aggressively or smarter.

Why, for example, have the GOP gotten away with so many lies about Kerry not having a good Senate record, or never bringing it up the things he did accomplish as a senator? They never counter that charge, and the GOP just repeats it until it becoimes an accepted truth.

And why aren't they saying more clearly that Bush Inc. is stealing the government to enrich the corporate coffers?

It just gets so frustrating for us average folks without a megaphone, and sometimes we gotta vent.

[LawDem]

86. Repeat after me -- It’s a marathon not a sprint.

When you care terribly much about something, the way most of us care about this election, a degree of bipolarity is inevitable. As a litigator, I can tell you it’s sort of like that when you’re in a long trial. After every good day, you’re elated, sure you’re going to win. After every bad day, you’re dejected, full of doom and gloom. You just have to keep telling yourself, "It’s a marathon, not a sprint." One day, by itself, most often, won’t decide it.

That’s where we are with the election. Shortly after the convention everything looked great. Now, we’re taking some hits. But it’s a marathon, not a sprint. And the long term indicators still look fairly good. We’re not only still in the fight, we’re still dead even in the fight, even after they gave us one of their best shots (in terms of dirty campaigning, which is, after all, their best thing). Try to remember what it was like back a couple years ago -- with Bush still ridding on a Sept. 11 induced cloud. Think how much you would have given back then to have Bush where we have him now.

There’s still a million miles to go in this campaign. And in the end, it won’t matter a lick how we felt on any one day along the way. We’re in the fight of our lives -- the fight for our nation’s soul. This is no time for licking our wounds!

[Joe Fields]

87. It's only human nature. Try to be a little more understanding of it.

The events of our times dictate the mood of the people. If you want to change the mood, you have to change the nature of the events.

[Terran]

89. Oh GOD. Check this out.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=678712&mesg_id=678712

Now I'm sorry, but that's just an inability to see the long view.