Rasmussen, 8/26: Obama 44%, McCain 44% (with leaners, Obama 46%, McCain 46%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Sign up for free daily e-mail update.

Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

-snip-

Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone survey interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53% (see trends). Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 61.0% chance of winning the White House.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).

-snip-

Tomorrow's poll should show a bounce.

Michelle and Teddy's speeches last night were too late in the evening to have any effect on this poll.

[Life Long Dem]

1. What is Clinton polled for?

[Triana]

2. That's what I wondered...

:wtf:

[endthewar]

5. Classic push-polling

Trying to divide Dems. Also, I find it interesting that Hillary has such a low favorable rating considering how she's gotten much better press recently.

[highplainsdem]

6. Those questions were apparently to gauge the effect on Democrats of NOT having a unity ticket. It

is not at all an odd question to ask when polls were showing all along that the majority of Democrats wanted Clinton on the ticket as Obama's running mate.

Rasmussen is just checking to see what's happening when she isn't.

This is a factor in the race.

I'm still hoping we'll see a bounce in the polls eventually from the convention. Both Michelle and Teddy were amazing last night. But I've also said all along that I thought not having a unity ticket might hurt us in the polls, and that's what Rasmusssen is indicating today. I hope this can be offset by November.

Clinton will be telling her supporters again tonight that she backs Obama. She's already been campaigning for him all over the country and telling her fundraisers to back him.

But she doesn't control their votes (any more than Obama controls his supporters here who have said they'd never vote for Clinton, or who continue attacking Hillary Clinton and her supporters long after he asked them to be nice to HRC, in his attempt to unity the party).

[RDANGELO]

3. I think these daily tracking polls are worthless.

I have been convinced that these daily tracking polls, Gallup and Rasmussen, are worthless. There never seems to be any consistency between the national snap shots, the state polls and these daily tracking polls.

[Sensitivity]

8. I thought it was the CNN weekend poll that was crap and the Tracking poll good?? WTF

[redqueen]

16. They are worthless. Trends matter... this constant crap is pointless.

AND irritating.

[SuperTrouper]

4. RNCsmussen has little or no credibility

[dkf]

7. Hillary misled women into thinking she had a chance.

After Wisconsin it was pretty much over, but she misled and manipulated women into thinking that she was a victim of the MSM because they pointed this out.

She has done a huge disservice to the women of this country.

She is simply a bad leader.

[paulk]

13. yup, it's all Hillary's fault

:eyes:


I mean - we all know how gullible women are, right?

[Dawgs]

9. Good, a three point lead for Obama.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php

[Sensitivity]

10. Folks, McCain's Negative Campaign is obviously working. We must find an effective response!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6746866

The McCain political hit men have found the Dems week spot and we are bleeding. Nothing could have been more insidiously damaging than turning Barack into "the worlds biggest celebrity," and empty suit, just a speech, etc., especially using the words of the Clintons and Biden himself to show that he is "NOT READY," really an "uppity" affirmative action pretender to the Presidency.

The fact that they can use the words of our party's own leaders to attack Obama means that the message should have the kind of credibility that SMEAR CAMPAIGNS typically don't have.
THAT IS THE SCIENCE OF NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNS and the Rovians have it down cold.

IT HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE. If it wasn't, Obama would be up at least 10 points since all the fundamentals favor the Dems.

WE MUST COUNTER ATTACK, and not by just denying their SMEARS -- that tends to just encourage MSM replay of the smears.

We must find the way to make McCain distasteful, unpalatable, incredible

[geek tragedy]

11. McCain at 57% approval is 15 points too high. Somebody

at the national level isn't doing their job.

[paulk]

12. looks like the numbers for the VP pick

"47% of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked"

Well, Obama went with the personal instead of the political - and now he's got his work cut out for him.

[Joe the Revelator]

14. So the clear majority of woman thought that Clinton should NOT be the VP

Thats interesting.

[paulk]

20. no, that's not what the poll says

if you'd bothered to actually go to the Rasmussen website you would have found that 39% disagreed -

in other words - to make it simple for you -

47% thought that Hillary should have been chosen, 39% thought that she shouldn't have been chosen.

So you're wrong.

[Joe the Revelator]

21. ok so we're up to 76%...wheres the rest of the respondents?

[paulk]

22. they most likely had no opinion

that's usually the 3rd choice

but, none of this is the point the OP is trying to make -

the poll shows that Obama's numbers have dropped since the VP pick, and that 47% is probably the reason.

That's all.

Obama has to find a way to win those people over.

[Thrill]

15. This is another clear sign of these people manipulating these polls

[pnwmom]

17. This poll is of LIKELY VOTERS, which means it discounts the new voters

that Obama is expected to bring in -- giving much more weight to people who have consistently voted IN THE PAST.

Especially in this election year, I'm very skeptical about this type of sample.

[TornadoTN]

18. Several factors - McCain's negative push is working and the typical VP bounce is absent

I'm not as much worried about the lack of the VP "Bounce" - most voters this time around are more concerned with the top of the ticket (at least on the Democratic side). We could see some bounce on McCain's side given his age for one and it may even bounce lower if he selects a perceived "anti-choice" selection.

As for the negative push - it works. McCain and the Republican's thrive on this (see history) type of behavior and its clear McCain is a win-at-all-costs candidate. The average American voter who gets their news straight from the TV and does little research or reading on their own eat this stuff up. It's pitching to the lowest common denominator - which unfortunately is the biggest bulk of the voting populace. We have to combat this stuff and doing it nicely isn't going to work this time around.

[anonymous171]

19. Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative

Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative Obama go negative