8/26 Kerry 311-333 EV: Sensitivity Analysis says Bush is Cheney Toast!

[TruthIsAll]

Sensitivity? Bush and Cheney don't know the meaning of the word.

To those of you who were worried about the new polls: Gallup has Kerry leading by 1, so it must really be 6.
FUX, too, has a one point-lead for Kerry.

Trust Zogby.

As the old Dodger manager Charlie Dressen once said: "Keep it close, I'll think of something".

Or have they already thought of keeping it close for Diebold and ES&S?

You want stats? Like to crunch numbers?

Want to crush Bush?
Take a peak, geek.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

NATIONAL POLLS
Win Prob allocation sensitivity
Based on 15-Poll average

Kerry Undecided/ other allocations
Alloc. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
Vote% 51.60 51.95 52.29 52.64 52.99
Prob% 82.61 87.33 91.08 93.93 96.02



STATE POLL EV SIMULATION
Sensitivity Analysis

Simulation I: Conservative Case
Allocation: 50% undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 50.29% popular vote.
Wins 87.7% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 311 electoral votes.
Max 387 electoral votes.

Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Allocation: 60% undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 50.91% popular vote.
Wins 94.8% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 323 electoral votes.
Max 391 electoral votes.

Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Allocation: 70% undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 51.53% popular vote.
Wins 96.7% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 333 electoral votes.
Max 396 electoral votes.

[olddem43]

1. TIA, You make me feel so good. If you are right about all this

you should be in the political hall of fame.

[Maine-i-acs]

2. I agree...TIA:

You have talked me off the ledge a couple times now. Thanks!