WTF? Gallup Tracking Poll has the race tied at 45%.

[Carrieyazel]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109753/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Tied-45.aspx


Rasmussen Tracking has it Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Obama +3.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Sunday has always been a negative polling day for Obama, regardless.

Don't believe me? Check it out.

[Bonn1997]

6. Whether we like it or not

maybe the real values (what statisticians call the population parameters) are something lik Obama 47, McCain 44. Then it would make sense that most polls have it anywhere from a tie to a 5 or so point lead for Obama.

[grannie4peace]

2. it's rigged

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

[darius15]

3. Average the two out, and you get Obama +1.5

which is basically what you got before the VP, when Rasmussen showed Obama by 1 and Gallup showed Obama by 2.

[pot luck]

4. Statistical noise.

It's been fluctuating for months.

[Teaser]

8. Thank you for sanity

.

[vaberella]

5. They're screwing the polls. Ever since that ABC nonsense I stopped paying attention. n/t

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Not only is variation between polls natural, ras and gallup use different durations

One is a rolling three day average, the other is a rolling four cay average. I don't remember which is which.

The day to day wiggles in the tracking polls are noise. Over the long term both tracking polls have done a decent job of reflecting a broad reality of a close race in which Obama has a consistent edge.

[Quixote1818]

9. Gallup under polls Democrats. But it is odd that Rasmussen would be

have Obama out ahead at the same time. They are a Republican pollster.

[treestar]

10. Are these polls relevant at all?

If they are only taken from people who answer their land lines and have time to answer questions from a caller like this on a land line - they can't represent the people well.

[demwing]

11. Cive it a week - the VP selection slipped under the radar

Let people see Biden in action this week, cap it with the convention, and then let's talk :)

[Willo]

12. The Poll was conducted Aug 21 - 23rd

The VP wasn't known until late night on Friday, Aug. 22nd. Biden spoke at 3:00 p.m on Saturday, Aug. 23rd.
Of the 2,625 registered voters that were called, how many were called yesterday? As that was the only time period to ask about the VP.



"On Saturday, after much speculation, Obama finally named his vice presidential running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden. Initial public reaction to Biden's selection appears rather unenthusiastic, according to a special Biden reaction poll conducted by USA Today and Gallup on Saturday.

Typically, presidential candidates have gotten a bump in the polls after naming their vice presidential running mate. Obama apparently received no immediate benefit in the polls from naming Biden as Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the day on Saturday still showed Obama and McCain closely matched in voter preferences for president."

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. First full three days of Obama with Biden out on Tuesday. But the

bright side - the VP choice didn't hurt?

[Kahuna]

14. I attribute it to the "no Hillary as VP" effect. I anticipated the polls going

down a notch based on Hillary not being crowned.