The Seven Houses Bounce: Obama Opens Up 3 Point Lead in Rasmussen Poll - O: 48 Mc: 45

[berni_mccoy]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

For those who don't monitor Ras, it's a significant bump. Obama hasn't held a 3 point lead in Ras since his World Tour. Other than that bounce, He's held a consistent 1-2 point lead over McSevenhouses since the race started.

Ras doesn't say why the bounce, but does call out that Obama picked his VP. Given that Ras's poll of approval for Obama's VP pick shows only a 38% favorable (25% negative, 32% undecided), it's not from his VP pick. This significant bounce, IMO, is due directly to Obama's framing of McCain as a clueless old rich dude who's disconnected from the reality of the average American. Finally, the Obama campaign has done this (with the opportunistic event of McSevenhouses gaffe), and they've done it so expertly with broad, broad coverage.

I expect Obama to break 50 on his VP pick in the coming days and then get into the low 50s after the convention. Eventually I expect Obama to settle on 51-52% after both conventions are said and done. McSeven houses will settle around 48-49%.

[bushisanidiot]

1. And that lead will get bigger!!!

what an awesome pre-convention bump!

[grannie4peace]

not enough, folks---we can " biden " that gap!!!!

[SKKY]

2. How it's even this close boggles the imagination...

...If this country elects John McCain, it deserves everything that happens.

[berni_mccoy]

4. It's only close if you look at the popular vote, which doesn't matter in the end.

You need to look at strength of a candidates electoral votes. This graph shows that very well (from electoral-vote.com)



Notice how all the EV's Obama has with a 5+% spread nearly total 270, while McSevenhouse's only total 175.

[Heather MC]

8. they are only calling people with home phones, which is the elderly

and stay at home moms
JMO

Now I wonder will the M$M report this a problem for McCain
or will this till be Obama's fault he is in the lead????

[nc4bo]

3. Nothing like a dash of hot sauce in the Bloody Mary, A-1 sauce for that juicy steak or

or a graphic verbal truth bomb tossed in the Rethug bunker.

Time to take off the gloves ladies and gentlemen - It's ON now!

[lamp_shade]

5. 3-day rolling average? Look at this.

What does this mean?
"Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis."

[berni_mccoy]

6. Yep, it means they have fully factored in the Seven Houses gaffe, which began on Thursday

1000 people each night from Th, Fr, Sat. Most people have heard about it by Saturday and that's why you are seeing the bounce now.

[lamp_shade]

7. Thank you

[berni_mccoy]

10. np

[maseman]

9. Self delete

[highplainsdem]

11. Berni, as someone who monitors Rasmussen, I think you should explain that the bump is with leaners,

since Obama has held a 3-point lead in the lower "match-up without leaners" numbers

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

four times in the last week, before today's poll results. A 1-point bump in the "match-up with leaners" lead is nice, but I don't know if a 1-point increase in a lead is usually called a "bounce." I think that term is typically used when the difference is a few points or more.

Anyway, with Rasmussen, it's a good idea to report both sets of numbers.

I also like to include the favorable ratings and electoral numbers, too. McCain's favorable rating has gone up 1 point since the previous poll

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates

and 2 points since a few days ago -- and it's up 4 points from a week ago -- which also tends to suggest Housegate isn't hurting him much. His favorable rating is currently 2 points above Obama's. Meaning any improvement in the match-up is most likely from the news about Biden.

It's good to see Obama back up at 48% (with leaners) again, especially with McCain never having been over 47% with leaners in recent weeks.

But these are the poll results after a few days of Housegate, and with one day when we knew for certain that Biden would be Obama's running mate, and two days when it looked very likely that Biden would be the running mate.

And except for that 1-point bounce when leaners are factored in, neither seems to have had much effect on the poll.

I hope we get more of a bounce out of the convention next week. But at the moment it doesn't look as though Housegate is helping.

[berni_mccoy]

12. I only count leaners because if they don't vote, we aren't going to win. This election will be won

on voter turnout by the Democrats.

[highplainsdem]

13. True. And it's good Obama's led McCain almost every day since Clinton endorsed him.

We still have a good chance of winning. My point is just that the real bounce some were expecting to see in the polls from Housegate doesn't seem to be there. At least not yet.

I know they're planning to bring up the houses gaffe again and again during the convention. It may help then, though it won't be possible to sort out just what is helping most at the convention, unless some pollster breaks down which factors are affecting how people react with specific questions.

I haven't seen any polls specifically about the houses gaffe yet. Have you? I was checking Google News with various keywords looking for such polls the other day, but didn't turn up any poll specifically about the houses remark. (I mean regular polls, not online polls at news sites that are so easily swayed by political websites.)

I was hoping some pollster would have done a survey on this by now, so we'd have a better idea of just how well this would play if brought up again and again.

[Phx_Dem]

14. New WaPo/ABC poll has Obama up by 4,

and it was taken before the Biden announcement.

From WashPost/ABC:
Obama: 49
McCain: 45
Poll was conducted before Biden announcement, though three-quarters said picking Biden would not sway their votes.

[bushisanidiot]

15. bounce bounce bounce!!!

woo hoo!!