The Shape of the Race (IMHO)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Obama having ANY white VP is worth 2-4%. It turns the dynamic from "the black candidate" to "the bi-racial ticket" (Of course the ticket is really 3/4 caucasian. Damn! Whitey wins again... <joke> )

Biden in particular is worth maybe 3-5% of Dems, so call that 1.5%. (The word "Dems" should be taken throughout to mean Democrats and Indys who have voted the straight Dem ticket for 30 years... the IINOS. Independents in Name Only.)

So I'll call the VP move 4-5%.

The VP + Convention combination is worth a lasting 7-9% and a temporary 10%. The Clintons' particular contribution will be worth a non-temporary 3-4% of Dems on top of the Biden factor. (If the VP were Kaine the Clintons would be worth much more... Biden already fixes a portion of the Clinton-voter problem.)

Very high undecideds this year, so lots of room for a fluffy convention bounce. So the day after the convention Obama 56%- McCain 35%.

But then McCain picks a VP the next day and the RNC happens. It will be the most negative thing EVER if they have any interest in winning. A few days after the RNC Obama 51% McCain-44%. (The undecideds keep diminishing--Obama down only 5% but McCain up 9%)

Note the weird wrinkle that the tracking polls will be showing an Obama blow-out *During* the RNC because they run a few days behind events. Obama will probably peak the same day the Chimperor speaks, which is sweet. (Another weird wrinkle will be that undecideds will probably head back up a little in October when they should be declining.)

Then 9/11 anniversary, then the debates.

(I'm thinking out loud. I doubt the numbers add up, nor are they meant to be taken as precise.)

[Colobo]

1. Good analysis.

[sniffa]

2. How do you think the debates will play out?

In 2004, Kerry absolutely massacred Bush, and yet, it didn't matter. I thought those debates would be the last nail that voters would need to close the coffin on Dubya, but I was wrong. :(

[Colobo]

3. Kerry let Republicans define him as an out of touch Northeastern liberal wuss.

Obama is fighting back and that is worrying Republicans big time.

[sniffa]

4. So the debates don't matter

Why bother having them?

[speedoo]

8. No, the debates matter a lot, IMO.

By the time the debates begin, McCain will have been completely defined by Obama and Biden and by Dem advertising as four more years of Bush. McCain's only shot at winning the election is to escape that quicksand, and he can only do that in the debates. but Obama is too good and too smart and he won't allow him to do it.

For Obama, he will want to sharpen up his language, become less "nuanced" and more direct on the issues. If he can do that, he could get the landslide we should be seeing.

[GreenPartyVoter]

13. Except I don't think many average folks watch the debates anymore. I think they rely on the

media to spoonfeed them sound bytes. And of course we know who the media favors and therefore does their best to show in a good light. :(

[speedoo]

15. Yeah, that's true, unfortunately.

But if McSame is defined as Bush, we win anyway.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. It's all about concession and T-shirt sales.

[Coexist]

14. after the debates, I begin to take polls more seriously.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. I agree. Obama will win them, but may not gain for winning. However, there's the

I agree. Obama will win them, but may not gain for winning.

However, there's the Reagan 1980 factor. Media expectations will be for Obama but swing-voter expectations might be more neutral since Obama is an unknown and will have been presented for a solid month by the pugs as a lightweight.

People may be pleasantly surprised.

Gore and Kerry won debates while losing ground because people didn't like them and didn't care whether they won debates. Winning debates is what those unlikable stuck-up types do. Since Obama is generally likable he may outperform his predecessors.


I expect McCain to have a good final few polling days in November (anxiety/insecurity), but Obama to have a decent enough lead that he'll win by 4-5% on election day.

[NanceGreggs]

6. I think we're looking at a ...

... that was THEN, this is NOW situation this time around.

In 2004, many Republican voters still had a pre-disposition to like Bush, to think that he was just down home rather than incredibly stupid.
At the time, they still thought the economy would go back to being healthy, that "victory" in Iraq was just around the next corner, etc.

But after living with the horrible truth about Bush's failures - along with the reality of a sinking economy, rising unemployment, out-of-control gas prices, and no real progress in Iraq despite the billions being spent - the average Joe is going to be a lot more skeptical when they listen to what John Stay The Course McSame has to say, and how he says it.

Just MHO ...

[sniffa]

10. But, what do you know? You're not even an American citizen.

:P

[NanceGreggs]

12. ...

:rofl:

Don't you think I'm being pretty flippant for someone who just found out her own mother moved to the UK, and never bothered to tell me?

[RoyGBiv]

7. Debates ...

For the debates to matter much, one candidate or the other doesn't just need clearly to lose, but to screw up royally in some way, i.e. leave a lingering negative perception in the voter's minds.

Bush didn't do that.

Remember that in 1984, most commentators, voters, and even some Republican strategists openly indicated Mondale won the debates, and he got a slight bounce from them. But Reagan didn't screw up, and no lingering negative perception followed him. He was still a charmer, still a good talker, still someone people thought they could trust.

Nixon in 1960 is the opposite example. Most believed he won the debates, but while doing it he left a negative perception of himself. He had the "right" answers, but he looked squirrely, sweat a lot, and just appeared old, feeble, and unfocused next to the sharp-eyed, well dressed Kennedy.

With these debates we've got a chance for a two-fer, closer to Clinton/Dole only with McCain making Dole look lucid and youthful by comparison. Obama can win on the power of rhetoric *and* McCain has the potential to come off looking very bad in the voter's eyes.

And if McCain becomes visibly agitated ... hold your horses. It could be a beautiful thing.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Biden Is A Bulldog

He'll grab hold of McCain's leg and gnaw till there's no meat on the bone. Then he'll snag the other leg.

And he's like by lunchpail types.

Don't you think those traits count for a lot?

(It's going to be a rout)