These national polls are meaningless. Look at the States to see the true picture

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Aug20.html

That's the true picture. The state polls are the same as the national polls.

Now could folk here please stop deriding everyone who perceives a problem as a concern troll, chicken-little, hand-wringer, weak-sister, scairdy cat, panicker, PUMA, whiner, or defeatist?

Everyone here is going to vote for Obama whether he is up, down or tied. It is more than reasonable for people in a political discussion forum to note and discuss obvious campaign developments. Maybe Obama will be up a million points next month, and then we will discuus that development.

[mod mom]

1. My state-Ohio has McCain supposedly ahead in the polls but when you consider

that virtually no Dem who voted for Kerry would ever vote for McCain, there are Republicans who have crossed over to the Dems (I have personally met some), The Obama campaign has a huge Voter Registration program (AND I HEARD AT A BOE MACHINE ALLOCATION HEARING THAT TRADITIONALLY ~70% OF NEWLY REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUALLY VOTE-A HIGHER NUMBER THAN ACTIVE REGISTERED NUMBERS) hundreds of thousands were disenfranchised in Ohio in '04 that won't this time since we have a Dem SOS not Blackwell-I have to ask how could McCain be ahead? I call BS.

I think it sounds like a way to explain away another stolen election.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. I won't be surprised if Obama wins Ohio.

I have never predicted he would lose the election. I expect him to win.

But I think he has gone from a 85% chance to a 60% chance. Few Dem candidates have ever had a 60% chance, so that's good, but 85% is better.

I believe his local organization efforts are excellent and provide a good cushion. But if the national narrative gets away from a candidate that swamps all the GOTV, registration, organization, etc.

For all I know Walter Mondale may have had better ground assets than Reagan in '84, but since he never got outside his base on a national perception level it wouldn't make a difference. So the big picture matters also.