by probama 08
Is it just me, or is everyone totally freaking out right now?
Everywhere I turn there is a new diary, editorial or blogpost lambasting Senator Obama for not hitting back hard enough, losing Saddleback, getting outspent during the Olympics, and (here’s my favorite:) being too calm. Since all of a sudden being hotheaded and temperamental is presidential...
And then today, out comes the Zogby Poll, showing McCain up by 5 points, and the Chicken Littles are out in force. Hence, I feel compelled to write my first diary to say the following to my hyperventilating brethren:
Chillax. Brother Obama has got this sh*t.
Take the dog for a walk, play with your kids, go to the park and do pastoral dances, change the channel and watch some Olympics, read Taking On the System...
Why am I so confident?
Here’s why:
1. It’s August!
Average Americans (I prefer that term to the pejorative "low-information voters") are not paying attention at the moment. I was at Walmart yesterday, and I am telling you, the place was absolutely clogged with moms and kids, their arms full with Hannah Montana folders and notebooks and pencils and protractors and bookbags, a screaming, babbling mess of back-to-school mania. I would venture to guess that outside the real everyday challenges everyone is facing, most people care more about Michael Phelps’ 8 gold medals and their fantasy football drafts than whether John McCain was inside, outside or merely adjacent to the Cone of Silence.
Obama knows this. That is why he went on vacation for a week. He knows that for someone of his relative inexperience, someone who 4 years ago was a state senator from Illinois, someone with his skin color and last name, to be where he is in the polls 77 days from Election Day, is HUGE.
Let school and college and the NFL season get under way. Then watch him go.
2. The Ground Game
This election will be won on the ground. Forget everything else, and recall that Kerry lost the election by a handful of votes per precinct in Ohio in 2004. This is despite the swiftboating, the anti-gay marriage red herrings, etc.
Remember that Obama was a community organizer. He knows that the secret to winning is grassroots campaigning and voter turnout. I spent a week field canvassing in Ohio for BHO before the primary, and was a election monitor in Greene County, Ohio on primary day. I saw firsthand how incredibly organized and smart this campaign is. They will beat the pants off the Republicans on Election Day.
Now throw in an unprecedented African American turnout, energized young people, and overall a much more motivated populace on the Democratic side, and we have all the ingredients for a record-setting GOTV operation and turnout on Election Day. How many states do you think that alone is worth?
This is a state by state election, not a national referendum, so stop reading national polls – they are not indicative of anything relevant, plus they are totally misleading, because they are based on historic presumptions that are no longer valid. This ain’t American Idol.
The Obama campaign beat the hundred-headed hydra that is the Clinton Machine with a better understanding of the rules and meticulous GOTV. He will beat a lesser foe in November the same way.
On the ground. Pounding the rock. Three yards, and a cloud of dust. Just wait until the convention is done, and school and college and the NFL season are underway. Then watch him go.
3. The Issues
It really cannot be overstated that in this election, of all elections, the issues really matter. I think it will be exceedingly difficult for most voters to vote against their economic interest on non-issues like the Muslim smears and Rev. Wright and right wing lies, than it has in years past.
People are truly hurting, every single day. I am upper middle class (not by McCain’s definition) and can barely afford the higher gas and food prices. People are working second jobs, forgoing annual family vacations, stressing out about their houses and repairs and college savings accounts and IRA’s. Praying they don’t fall sick. When they enter voting booths in November, it is these "kitchen table" issues will be topmost in their minds, not whether Obama went to a madrassa when he was 5, or whether South Ossetians can validly elect Russian citizenship.
Not this year. Not this time. We are at a serious crossroads as a nation. There are many who believe that the American Empire could very well be circling the drain. Voters feel this. They are looking at their kids and wondering what kind of America they will inherit.
Obama knows this well. He knows that by sticking to the issues, he is building – brick by brick, yard by yard – an ever-strengthening case. He is doing it slowly, carefully, methodically. Yes, he has lost a few news cycles. Yes, he’s gotten thrown off his narrative and daily talking points a few times. This was never supposed to be a cakewalk. But take the long view and you will see - we are watching something special.
Just wait until the convention is done, and school and college and the NFL season are underway. Then watch him go.
But until then, keep the faith, stop reading polls, and trust this campaign to do the right thing.
And seriously, some of you, take a walk or something. Usain Bolt just pulled an Obama at the Bird's Nest.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/20/12119/3288/468/571088
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