Obama ahead in the betting.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

According to an article in the Daily Telegraph (a very right-wing paper, but generally reputable), people are betting on Obama to beat McCain more than vice versa, and in past years that has correlated well with the outcome of elections.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/08/18/scibetting118.xml

If you believe the polls, the race for the White House between Barack Obama and John McCain is neck and neck. But if you believe the scientists, Obama is ahead by a whopping 25 per cent.

Barack Obama is 25 per cent ahead of John McCain when predictions are made via betting
And not only that - without any specialist knowledge, the same techniques can be used to tell you how many medals Britain will win in Beijing, or even what the weather in Florida is going to be like.

The idea is simple: to ask people to place their bets. In the case of the US elections, the experiment is called the Iowa Electronic Market, run by the University of Iowa.

It works just like a financial market: investors are invited to buy virtual "shares" in the two major political parties, each priced between zero and $1.

After the election, traders holding stock in the winning party receive $1 per share. Those who backed the loser receive nothing.

[babylonsister]

1. Good news-I'll take it! Thanks. nt

[kansasblue]

2. sounds like http://www.intrade.com/

http://www.intrade.com/

Obama 59

McCain 38

[quantass]

3. But with no real money on it it isnt as accurate -- Intrade.com would be accurate and Obama is good

The problem with the Iowa thing is that people are betting with techinically nothing to lose....if you have people put their money where there mouth is you will get the true results...and intrade alreayd does that....and thankfully Obama is doing very well..