Today's daily Gallup tracking numbers are ... unknown

[DavidDvorkin]

They've always posted by this time of day, in the past. Odd that they haven't been posted yet.

(But while you're waiting for them, be sure to check out the cool post with the spiffy graphs:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6643994&mesg_id=6643994)

[Undercurrent]

1. The daily tracking is up now.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Obama seems to tick upward every weekend.

And sustains that leads for most of the week, then McCain makes a small gain toward the end of the week, only to have Obama surge again.

Interesting to note that McCain still can't crack 45%. haha

[jefferson_dem]

3. Good.

Keep the streak alive. Barack's never been 44. McCrypt's never been above 44.

[TheDonkey]

4. Obamas been at 44, but everytime he has McClown has been tied with him

then he moves up. Ugh. I wish Obama could open a 10pt lead for my hearts sake! But I know that these tracking numbers are meant to be a little squirrely just to keep the eyeballs interested.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I look at it another way.

Tracking polls are supposed to be taken into full context, which rarely happens. If Obama is tied with McCain for one day, it doesn't mean he's actually tied. Tracking polls only give you a small gimps of a possible trend. Sometimes a trend is just a bump and everything returns to normal. Or sometimes it actually is a trend and the numbers sustain or grow.

Right now, McCain "cutting" into Obama's lead is not a trend, it was a bump, probably statistical noise. Which is why when you look at a daily tracking poll, it's important to average out the numbers. I like to do it for a week, since I doubt the numbers dramatically change over the course of a week, outside of something major happening.

Sometimes you can do a few days, too, which works ok, but still, I think a week gives enough room to spot a bump/trend and factor it into the numbers. If we do that, Obama leads McCain 46-43, or a 3-point lead. That seems to be on par with the national numbers.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Ooops. I forgot to insert the word "below" before "44"

:hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Aah, that's better

McCain's ceiling is 44, and so far that seems to be Obama's floor.