A little different poll: What are Sen. Obama's actual odds of becoming POTUS on 1/20/09

[isentropic]

Regardless of what happens on the GOPer side (some have suggested McSame might drop out, be replaced, become non-ambulatory...etc.) given the situation right now as you see it and leaving what you WANT out of the response if you possibly can!

Feel free to comment on why you answered the way you did but please just be as brutally honest as you can on the question! :D

Once again, as things stand NOW, what are the chances (odds) that B.O. will indeed be inaugurated as President next January.

[opihimoimoi]

1. The SCENT of POSITIVENESS is soooo much Sweeter than the STENCH of NEGATIVITY

[isentropic]

2. I agree...but what does that have to do with the question?

:hi:

[opihimoimoi]

5. MOST People know Sweet from Sour...More than a few is signing up to vote for SWEET...OBAMA

McCaine using fear card..."I can handle WAR"....

Its not gonna work as well as he would hope

[isentropic]

6. Opinion noted, thanks.

...

[OmahaBlueDog]

3. I like his chances, but it will be razor close, again

I don't see the landslide others here see.

[isentropic]

4. I agree with you. I talk to a -lot- of people (most of which are, around here, bluedogs)

who say "I'm voting for him but I don't think he can win." I'm not sure how to conclude anything from that, though. Sometimes I think they really mean "I'm just telling you I'll vote for him but when the rubber hits the road, I really can not." :shrug:
That's why I didn't put my own opinion in the poll OP.
:-)

[jesus_of_suburbia]

10. I also think after 2000 and 2004 people are afraid to predict victory.

So that's why lots of people are unsure.

I am more assured now than I was in 2004, and I was pretty assured then.

I still think it will be close, but I think it's going to be ours.

[isentropic]

11. Ha yeah like "don't jinx it". I hear ya. If I had seen a poll like this in mid-2000 with Bush as

the subject, I would have picked the "no way, Jose, never in hell" choice. Truly...I NEVER thought, back then, that GWB would ever actually live in our White House. Boy how wrong I was. :grr:

[AndyTiedye]

21. I Was Sure We Were Going to win in 2000. Since then, Not so Much

Everyone thought Gore had it won. Then the put the camera on the Bush family,
and Bush the Elder said "Florida is ours! I command it!", and, right on cue,
Gore's numbers started going backwards.

Then we had "rob-georgia" in '02, allowing the Repiggies to steal back the Senate.

In '04 we had a really strong candidate in Kerry, but the Mighty Slime Machine
gave the Swift Boaters billions of dollars of free airtime to slime him, while refusing
to air his rebuttals. Nonetheless Kerry was leading significantly in the polls going
into Election Day, and in the exit polls when the polls closed. It looked as if
Kerry had it won — until the numbers started changing, this time changing even
the exit polls after the fact to match the "official" results.


But they say this time will be different…

[OmahaBlueDog]

16. If you look at the state breakdown, and what's in play now, he can definitely win

However, some states that were leaning Obama are drifting to tossup (CO, MN) and some early tossups are heading into the McSame column (FL, MO). However, some red states like MT and ND have gone into play; this can't be underestimated -- even their few EVs could tip the scale. Obama has to hold everything we won in 2004 and pick up a state like OH, IN, VA. McSame has to win everything Bush won. I also know the GOP is going to fight like Hell to put PA into play.

The polls now don't mean squat, but a few things are noteworthy. McSame's campaign staff shakeup is paying dividends -- he is gaining some momentum. This has been compounded by Barack's Mideast/Europe trip, and his vacation. We'll need to see where we are in 30 days -- post-convention.

[AndyTiedye]

19. He Can Win, But the Repiggies Can Steal It

Our efforts to stop election fraud have been utterly futile so far.

[AndyTiedye]

7. Odds of Taking Office? or Percentage of the Vote?

You say odds in the title, but the parenthesized comments imply percentage of the vote.

There are a lot of ways he might get a majority of the vote and still not become President.

Ask Al Gore.

[isentropic]

12. Yes, I debated on the 'vote' comments but I kinda figured most people would

think they would be closely correlated. I should have just stuck with raw percentages...

[kansasblue]

8. Take a look at INTRADE.com. It's a poll backed up with money.

People and investing/betting on presidential futures:

Obama 60 - McCain 37

Backed up by money. I put more credence in this poll and any Gallup poll.


www.intrade.com

[isentropic]

14. That's very interesting! But I wonder how much activism as a result of investment comes from it.

(I have no idea) :D

[jesus_of_suburbia]

9. I said 48-52, but I believe we will win it. We gotta FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT till the end

We'll have a better idea a month from now.

[southerncrone]

13. The BFEE & Cabal will not give up power if at all possible.

I fear some type of coup that retains * & Darth, & let's not forget the vote fixing machines. :(

[highplainsdem]

15. Would have to know who his running mate is.

If it's Clinton, the odds are very good that Obama will be our next president. I'd say 80% or better...barring a really effective October surprise from the GOP.

If his VP is anyone else, I'd put the odds at 50% or less.

And as I've said elsewhere, this is based on what the polls are showing about the level of Democratic support he's getting, which voters he's most likely to lose to McCain, and how much she'd help him as a running mate.

[Lilith Velkor]

18. I agree, except I'm a bit more pessimistic

I'd say 60% with HRC, 40% without.

Plus, I think there's only about a one in three chance he'll have her on the ticket.

Based on just a gut feeling. I believe it's yogurt, but I can't believe it's not butter.

[LordJFT]

20. What polls exactly are you talking about?

The polls I've seen have shown mixed effects of Hillary as vp and have shown other potential vps that help more clearly.

[cynatnite]

17. I don't know if he will win...

He's sprinted to the center and is trying to lure the evangelicals. I liked him better when before he got the nomination.