8/14 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): Like Kerry, OBAMA will win TRUE VOTE (339 EV) but lose RECORDED VOTE IF.

[tiptoe]

X-POST:

What combinations of Uncounted and Switched vote rates would cause OBAMA to lose?

...
The aggregate State model has Obama at 52.7% ... His expected electoral vote margin is 339–199.
...
The projections assume the election is held today and that there is zero fraud. The model also accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent. The summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming that a) 3% of total votes cast are Uncounted and Obama has 75%, and b) 4% of his votes are Switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, the vote share calculations indicate that Obama would have a losing 262 electoral votes and a 49.9% vote share.
...

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 14

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/14/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 46.6 (51.89) 
 43.2 (48.11) 
 45.4 (52.49) 
 41.1 (47.51) 
52.7
47.3
53.49
46.51
339
199

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
Gallup
Pew
IBD/TIPP

CBS
Time
AP/Ipsos
CNN
USA/Gallup

Dem Corp
FOX
NBC
NYT/CBS
ABC/WP

Date
            
13-Aug
13-Aug
10-Aug
10-Aug
10-Aug

5-Aug
4-Aug
4-Aug
29-Jul
27-Jul

24-Jul
23-Jul
21-Jul
14-Jul
13-Jul

Size
            
3000LV
2673RV
903RV
2414RV
925RV

906RV
808RV
1002RV
914RV
791LV

1004LV
900RV
1003RV
1462RV
1000RV

MoE
            
1.8%
1.9%
3.3%
2.0%
3.2%

3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.2%
3.5%

3.1%
3.3%
3.1%
2.6%
3.1%

Obama
            
47
46
45
46
43

45
46
48
51
45

50
41
47
45
50

McCain
            
46
43
38
43
38

39
41
42
44
49

45
40
41
39
42

Spread
            
1
3
7
3
5

6
5
6
7
-4

5
1
6
6
8

 

Obama
            
45.4
45.6
46.3
45.6
46.6

47
48
47
46.8
45.6

46.6
46
47.8
47.2
47.8

McCain
            
41.1
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.8

43
44.2
44
43.8
42.8

41.4
40.4
40.6
40.6
40.8

|

Obama
            
52.5
52.9
53.2
52.9
53.3

52.2
52.1
51.6
51.7
51.6

53
53.2
54.1
53.8
54

Win Prob
               
99.7
99.9
97.3
99.8
97.8

91
87.9
85.2
84.2
81.3

96.9
97.4
99.5
99.8
99.4

 

Obama
            
53.5
53.9
54.1
53.9
54.2

53
52.7
52.4
52.4
52.6

53.8
54.2
54.8
54.5
54.6

McCain
            
46.5
46.1
45.9
46.1
45.8

47
47.3
47.6
47.6
47.4

46.2
45.8
45.2
45.5
45.4

Diff
         
7
7.8
8.2
7.8
8.3

6
5.4
4.8
4.9
5.1

7.6
8.3
9.5
9
9.3

Win Prob
               
100
100
99.3
100
99.4

96.5
93.6
93.6
93.0
92.5

99.2
99.4
99.9
100
99.8

 

 

Full Article

[Alexander]

1. This is as bad as it will get. His vacation is over, a VP will be named,

and that plus Obama's ads plus the convention will give Obama a bounce and doom McCain's chances.

And I can't wait to see McCain lose the debates.

[tiptoe]

2. August 05, 2008 "Obama signs up lawyers" ..."Obama Voter Protection Program has already launched..."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_signs_up_lawyers.html

Obama general counsel Bob Bauer emails lawyers and law students that the campaign is setting up an "unprecedented" new "voter protection" program -- a standard feature of Democratic campaigns, but given the general enthusiasm for Obama, and the specific enthusiasm (according to my anecdotal sense) among legal types, probably on a very large scale.

Bauer writes:

• In 2004, those with legal expertise -- people like you -- were critical to the voter protection effort.
  
  
• Lawyers and legal professionals made sure that registered voters made it on the rolls and were able to vote. They made sure that ballots were available and polls stayed open. And they helped reassure voters that they would not be intimidated.
  
  
• Despite our stepped-up efforts, problems persisted -- including deceptive flyers, unnecessary lines, inadequate ballot supplies, and problems with voting machines.
  
  
• In a year that will likely see unprecedented turnout, we can't afford to let our guard down. The stakes could not be higher. This election has to be different.

That's why the Obama Voter Protection Program has already launched, earlier than ever before, and will be the most comprehensive voter protection program in our nation's history, with counsel in 50 states and a vote protection team on the ground now.
...
Full Article

[tiptoe]

3. Obama will clobber McCain in debate. nt

[Fluffdaddy]

4. The way Kerry was to suppose to clobber Bush in the debates?

Let not make the same mistake. Lets downplay the debates, play it as the new guy going up against the veteran. Lower the expectations then hit them hard.

[Fluffdaddy]

5. McCain has not spent a lifetime in politics by being a poor debater.

Lets not get arrogant. Lets not make the mistake we did with Gore and Kerry, thinking we was going to kick ass in the debates. All Bush had to do was hold his own.

[tiptoe]

7. * relied on election fraud for his "political success". McCain will do the same. nt

[davidpdx]

6. but but....

haven't you been listening to the naysayers on this board?

:sarcasm:

[tiptoe]

9. k! nt

[tiptoe]

8. We can beat McCain. Can We (Obama, team of lawyers et citizens) beat the "GOP" Election Fraud? nt