8/24 KERRY: 307 EV... What's the matter with CA?

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry is down to a 3% lead in CA, bringing his numbers down in the State Poll EV simulation model.

IBD has a new poll out today - a 44% tie, bringing Kerry's national numbers down a fraction.

Electoral Vote Simulation Model
1000 trial runs

Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 50% undecided/other to Kerry.

Kerry 50.06% popular vote.
Wins 76.5% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 292 electoral votes.
Max 366 electoral votes.

Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 60% undecided/other to Kerry.

Kerry 50.74% popular vote.
Wins 87.6% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 307 electoral votes.
Max 378 electoral votes.

Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 70% undecided/other to Kerry.

Kerry 51.42% popular vote.
Wins 95.1% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 318 electoral votes.
Max 383 electoral votes.

...............................................

NATIONAL 11 POLL MODEL
Current Avg. Mean:
Kerry 49.11
Bush 44.22

Forecast:
Kerry 53.11
Bush 46.89

Kerry Win Prob 96.58

See the latest data and model results here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[geek tragedy]

1. Bad sample in Cali--

more Reps than Dems, and Bush getting 3X as much support from blacks as normal.

Junk.

[Democat]

2. Kerry is ahead by 16% in California in another poll at the same time

Two polls came out at the same time, one of them had Kerry ahead by 16%. Some people have decided to focus on the other poll, but it's bullshit.

Here is the other poll from the same time with Kerry way ahead:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archi...

[Warren DeMontague]

3. I think that's the same CA "poll" someone referenced yesterday.

Maybe Diebold? I don't know anyone else who could manufacture numbers like that in CA for Bush.

He's getting his ass roundly kicked here, no question in my mind.

[wryter2000]

4. I saw that. It's weird

I have a hard time believing it, but if California gets close every single blessed one of us in the north will be out organizing and voting. Ain't no way Whistle Ass is taking this state. :mad:

[DemMother]

5. There should be a DU debunker site

that you could look at before signing in. I know I could use one. Anyway, this poll has been discussed about a half dozen times. Even the person who runs electoral-vote.com called it suspect. It gives too much weight to Republicans, among other things.

from electoral vote.com

A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/aug/aug20.html

[Trajan]

6. IF it is "SurveyUSA" ....

Then it IS bunk ....

It came out during the 98 gubernatorial race with a near tie between Lungren/Davis ..... while other polls showed Davis stomping Lungren ....


Davis stomped Lungren ....

SurveyUSA is a fraud ...

[Piperay]

7. It's bullshit

I live in California and it is complete and total bullshit, Kerry is ahead here by double digits.

[Gelliebeans]

8. Here here Piper

I am a 4th generation California and the polls here show more like a 16% lead for Kerry here, I live in Riverside County which is next to Orange County (republican based) and even the Republicans I know are voting for Kerry. We also have a large hispanic vote and Bush doesn't fair well with them. Don't worry CALIFORNIA will come through with flying colors. The ads are just starting here for John Kerry, they have been non-existant in the last 3 weeks but since Move-On.org this week has blasted local and national TV with Kerry's message it will only be reinforced that CALIFORNIA IS NOT BUSH COUNTRY
;-)

[Piperay]

9. Hi Gelliebeans

WELCOME to DU! :hi: