Rasmussen Missouri: McCain by 7

[MattNC]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

McCain - 48%
Obama - 41%

This is similar to SurveyUSA's recent polling of the state. I'm sure Obama's massive ground operation in the state will help, but we have an uphill battle here. Can any native Missourians chime in?

[DangerDave921]

1. what is there to chime in on?

The numbers are what they are. My family out in MO is straight DEM all the way, but that's just a handful of people.

[MattNC]

3. I was just curious

what you think about Obama's chances in the state, what he needs to do specifically in the state to win. Sorry for asking.

[DangerDave921]

5. Sorry

Didn't mean to jump on you. I think MO is a fairly religious state that is mostly Repub. That is offset by St. Louis and KC. But the whole middle of the state is solid RW. I think McCain will likely take MO.

[yourout]

2. If Rasmussen says 7 points then its acually 2 and within MOE.

[OmahaBlueDog]

4. I wasn't happy to see this number, and I wasn't happy to see the OH & FL numbers

McSame seems to be increasing his lead in FL and MO and making it close in Ohio.

I also wasn't best pleased to see that we're not making the KY, NC, or TX senate races as competitive as we initially thought.

[book_worm]

6. Were you happy about the Rasmussen numbers in Michigan that have Obama up by 7?

or the NJ numbers that have Obama up by 10
or the Washington numbers that have Obama up by 12?

Surely there must be some numbers that make you happy?

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. The Michigan number did make me happy, actually

... but we won MI (and NJ and WA) the last 2 times.

Missouri, Florida, and Ohio .... we need to win one of these three and all the states we won the past two times to win the GE.

[writes3000]

8. Or Indiana or Virginia or Colorado/New Mexico. n/t

[OmahaBlueDog]

11. The toss up analysis

The last analysis I saw had FL, MO, and NC "Leaning McSame" "NM" was considered "leaning Obama"

IN, CO, NH, OH, and VA were considered tossups: The reasoning was that Obama could win if all of the other "Solid/Leaning Obama" states, and he took 2 of those 5 (excl NH) or 3 of those 5 (incl NH), he'll win' McSame would need 3 of those 5 (excl NH) to beat Obama.

[PresidentObama]

9. We still have time, I have faith he can carry Missouri.

I was on the ground in Missouri in 2004, and knew Kerry wouldn't win.

I campaigned my heart out though.

But in 2008, I see a different story. I think he can win here.

[Terran]

10. I honestly can't believe it's that big a spread.

Every poll and report I've seen shows people here are sick of Republicans. Jay Nixon, our Dem candidate for Governor, is slated to wipe the mat with Kenny Hulsof. I just doubt very much that McCain has that big a lead.

And to correct an earlier poster who obviously doesn't live here, it's not the "middle" of the state that's conservative, it's the rural parts of the state. Basically we have KC and St. Louis west and east, and Columbia in the middle, as Dem strongholds. Springfield in the southwest is growing big and is thus starting to be come less conservative. And the "Bootheel", southeast, is a long-time former Dem stronghold that has never entirely taken up the Southern strategy. Some it has gone repub while other parts have stayed Dem. But the very rural parts of the state, in all directions, they've been repub for a while now but a lot of these folks don't like what Matt Blunt did to our medicaid program (kicked 10,000 kids off it), and they're ready to consider Democrats again.

I think it's close, and I think Obama can take it. He kicked ass in Springfield the other day, from what I heard.