FL, OH, CO, VA, IN. Win Just One, President Obama. McLiar Needs Them ALL.

[tekisui]

Look at this chart, courtesy of DUer phigndumass:





As long as Obama holds NH and MI, which I fully expect he will, he needs just ONE. JUST ONE of the following: Ohio, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia OR Florida to reach 270 and the Presidency. He could also do it with Montana and Nevada.

Look at McLiar. He has to run the board of the 5 major swing states: Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida AND win Nevada. He has to play it perfect and he hasn't come near it yet.


I don't see how McLair could do it.

[scheming daemons]

1. Colorado, at least, is a lock. No way McCain wins there.

[tekisui]

3. Then, that is it. President Obama.

[ThatsMyBarack]

25. Unless....

A$$holes steal votes for McBush!

[tekisui]

26. They will have to steal it in no less than 5 states,

perhaps closer to ten. Not an easy feat, even for criminal neo-cons.

[ram2008]

5. Whoever wins Colorado will win the General Election

As long as Obama holds his lead there he will be President.

[tekisui]

7. Obama can lose CO and win VA and will be President.

But, I see him taking both, anyway.

[ram2008]

15. That may be true but...

Obama has held a consistent but small lead in Colorado since polling started, while Virginia has shown both McCain and Obama holding leads at different times. It just makes me feel like Colorado will swing Dem before Virginia, and if it does the election is sealed as Obama will have won New Mexico if he carries Colorado and will have carried Iowa and New Hampshire as well.

If however McCain holds onto Colorado he will probably hold onto Ohio, meaning it would come down to Virginia where McCain is slightly favored but it'll be a nail biter-- like the Webb v Allen race.

[mtf80123]

28. No doubt... but we need to remember

our RepubliKKKan S.O.S. recently purged 1/5 of our voter rolls.

http://squarestate.net/diary/6253/voter-purging-in-co

It will be more than "nail-biting" close here.

[eshfemme]

2. That's a very good point and explains the recent desperation behind McCain's attacks too. nt

[tekisui]

8. McLiar is losing, and he knows it.

He has little to offer, so he will try anything to tear down Obama. He has nothing to lose. If he had a real chance, he'd be playing it much safer.

[islandmkl]

4. chuck todd (in a moment of non-rw clarity) pointed out last night that once the swing states..

get 'swung'...Obama needed to win basically one, possibly two, of the 5 battlegrounds...while m.c.johnny had to win 4....

so, it appears we can get rid of chuckie and get phigndumass a job on TV!!

good job...gobama

[Cosmocat]

9. I saw that, I like Todd ...

I don't quite get the negative vibes people here have for him ... I think he really enjoys his job, and IMO, he seems to be a D ...

I will say this, his projects are signficantly lower than all the webites I check on a daily basis for state by state electoral math ... I think he is under orders to make it look closer, obviously ...

I live in Pa, and it kind of gets me that he has Pa as a toss up, when BO is near univerally noted as about a 6-8 point lead there, and all the other states at least have PA as a BO lean ... That is just one example ...

Either way, this math is part of why I like Bayh on the ticket ... IMO, BO wins Indiana with him, and between Indiana and Iowa flipping, as long as he holds everywhere else, it will be over there ... Not that I am ruling out him being able to win in some other states, just that as much as it is possible, Bayh seems to give him a bird in the hand ...

[Coexist]

6. .

[Fire_brand]

10. Does this make a case for or against Hillary as VP??

I'd say for, she'd probably help deliver Florida and Ohio

[tekisui]

11. Not to fan flames, but I don't think she is needed to win any of the 5.

She would probably help FL and OH, but there are many picks who would help win one or more of these states.

Further, I think Obama can win one or more with ANY Veep.

[27inCali]

17. I'm still cool w/ the Clintons

but she probably hurts in the states that voted Bush last but are moving towards Obama.

I just think that's the honest truth.

[my3boyz]

12. Assuming McCain does not win PA or Michigan. nt

[tekisui]

13. Yep.

Assuming Obama holds MI, NH and PA. I think he will.

[jazzjunkysue]

14. They'll have to rig every state, and that will take people on the ground

with access to every tabulator in every state.

It could be done, but, that leaves them quite vulnerable, when so many are in on it.

People have been exposed and convicted since 00 and 04. I don't know, anymore, if they have enough insiders left who will risk everything for the GOP.

It ahs been done, it could be done, but the chances of getting caught rise exponentially every time they try to add another state to the rigging.

It gets more precarious, that's for sure.

[tekisui]

16. The bigger the scheme, the riskier.

Another good thing is that McLiar is going to be spending a lot of the RNC money defending states that chimpy took twice.

It will leave the puke Senate and Congress races with little cash.

A New Majority and President Obama!

[jazzjunkysue]

20. Right. And they may not fully trust John to do all their bidding, like the chimp does.

They may not feel the investment and risk are worth it. They knew Daddy bush would hold the empire together. That was cheney's job. They may not be sure of John, or whoever actually serves after the stroke.

[Bullet1987]

18. I like this...

[tekisui]

19. It's much better than the National Polls and M$M would have us believe.

[TheBigotBasher]

21. The national polls

are pretty irrelevant. Given the State leads and the map in play it would be theoretically possible for Obama to pull this off with 42% compared to McCain on 44%. His result will not be that bad nationally but it would be ironic.

[Odin2005]

22. I'm betting Obama will win all those blue ones plus North Carolina and the Dakotas.

You heard me, I think the Dakotas and North Carolina will go blue!

WE ARE GONNA KICK THE PUKES'S ASSES!!!

[tekisui]

23. I like the way you see it!

[Norrin Radd]

24. So these are the places the pukes are going to concentrate their dirty tricks?

[tekisui]

27. McLiar must hold FL, first and foremost.

Then, they can spread the slime to OH, VA, CO, and IN.

But, I don't believes that it will work. Not in EVERY state.

[musicblind]

29. Dont forget North Carolina! I live here and I DO believe that Obama has a chance of winning

our 15 Electoral Votes! I'm not just saying that because I am an Obama supporter either. Everyone here who knows my posts know that I am brutally honest about my opinions. I DO BELIEVE that Obama can win in NC. It's not guaranteed but it is a very real possibility.

[tekisui]

30. Fellow North Carolinian here,

I agree Obama can win here. I was trying to keep it simple in the OP. I only looked at the "swing states": that are polling at statistical ties.

I fully expect NC to become a "swing state" closer to the election and for Obama to lead then win here!

NC is Obama country, and Hagan to the Senate!:hi:

[Jawja]

31. So now we know where the GOP

will concentrate their efforts at election theft.

[tekisui]

32. And, where we must be diligent

and put major effort in GOTV and checking every voter to watch for complications.

[Guaranteed]

33. Yup, looks like Obama has 243 EVs- which doesn't count MI and NH- just about locked up.

Any combination of 27 EVs from the 82 leaning Obama- or *even the 48 leaning McCain*- gives him the Presidency. That's 27 EV's out of 130, via CO (9), FL (27), IN (11), NC (15), MI (17), MT (3), NV (5), NH (4), OH (20), VA (13), ND (3) or SD (3).

He definitely should be able to do that. FL alone does that.

[tekisui]

34. That's the same math I got.

:)

[phrigndumass]

35. (pssst ... hi)

(nice post!)

*poof*

[tekisui]

36. I told you I could stare at it all day.

I printed it off and took it to work with me. Worked the math and felt good the rest of the day. Thanks, again.