A Kerry Win Will Crash The Stock Market !

[stewert]

The next time some talking head on CNN, MSNBC, or FAUX says if Kerry wins the stock market will crash show them these articles.

To see a great example of FOX saying the market will crash if Kerry wins check this out.

http://www.newshounds.us/2004/08/23/want_a_bush_ad_heres_one.php#more

--------

Despite 'market friendly' Republican policies, stocks rise more and volatility dips under Democrats.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Plenty of Wall Streeters are Republicans. The party's policies are seen as better for big business and therefore better for the stock market.

"Democrats are seen as being pro-regulatory, and more willing to enact laws against Wall Street and laws against CEOs," said Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics.

But here's Wall Street's strange little irony -- studies show the stock market performs better and tends to be less volatile when Democrats are in power.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/21/markets/election_demsvreps/

Funny how they fail to mention over 200 CEO's endorse Kerry.

Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry picked up endorsements from some 200 business leaders as he sought to boost his standing on economic issues.

Among the executives with Kerry in Davenport were Peter Chernin, president and chief operating officer of News Corporation; Charles Gifford, chairman of Bank of America; and Charles Phillips, president of Oracle Corp.

"The Kerry-Edwards plan for America is exactly what is needed to jumpstart businesses and get America working again," Chernin said in a statement released by the Kerry campaign.

"It will lower healthcare costs and cut taxes on corporations and small businesses to strengthen our economy today and invest in education, science and innovation to help us stay competitive in the economy of tomorrow."

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the Kerry backers, David Bonderman, founder and managing partner of investment firm Texas Pacific Group, supported George W. Bush for president in 2000 and earlier for Texas governor.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/afp/20040804/ts_alt_afp/us_vote_kerry_business

[Vickers]

1. They hate us for our bull markets.

:spank:

[Gman]

2. The market has already "built in" the likelyhood of Kerry winning

into prices according to articles 2 or 3 weeks ago.

[cthrumatrix]

3. hmmm...so that explains the fall from 2000...thanks

[the Kelly Gang]

4. haven't these f****ers heard of the Wall Street Crash in '29

[NewJeffCT]

15. Not to mention

The huge 1 day crash under Reagan...

it's been historically proven that the stock market does better overall under Democrats than it does for Republicans.

[maine_raptor]

5. Nothing new here folks

I've never NOT seen an election year where the Wall Street barons did not say that a Dem win would cause a complete meltdown of the stock market.

SOP for those folks. Never seem to realize that the market tends to do better under a D than a R historically.

[Warpy]

6. The market will dip, period

So be prepared for it. If you don't believe me, check out the average p/e ratio and compare it to the historical level. The market is overvalued by about half. The things holding it up are retirement money, Bush's tax cuts to the rich, companies buying back their own stock, hot air, and wishful thinking. Only your retirement money will continue to pour into it in the coming years.

Bush will not have a clue to do about what's coming. He's an utter and complete moron who thinks you can lavish wealth on the wealthy and strip everyone else of everything and have a healthy country with lots of young kids available to go to his wars. Kerry has a good chance of knowing what to do about it, but nobody will like him for it.

It's gonna be a bumpy few years, folks, no matter who gets in. I think we'll see a slide rather than a crash, but don't expect to get rich on stocks in the next few years.

[Robb]

7. I dunno

...A few new jobs might help things out, and we're not going to see those in a second * term.

But boy did you get this right: "Kerry has a good chance of knowing what to do about it, but nobody will like him for it."

[HFishbine]

8. True

Add to that a surge in retirement needs and the market is due for some lower levels ahead -- no matter who is in office. The good news is, if you are in your 40's or younger, this will be the buying opportunity of your lifetime.

[newportdadde]

9. Markets crashing no matter who it is...

Heres the deal as the poster mentioned above we are going to crash or decend sideways for a long time ala Japan. This market never truly bottomed out the way it should have. Its P/E ratios never got low enough and people as a whole didn't hate the market. You have to bottom out all the way back to valuation inorder to make a run back up. Hell look at 29, 30 etc. During that time the market valuted back up a few times and everyone thought the worst was over only to have it come barreling back down again.

There are a few reasons why we are getting a fake bounce:

First like above one reason is 401k money is a constant stream, it goes in no matter what at least for now.

Second is low interest which has enabled a housing bubble to form. Remember in 2000 when everyone speculated stocks and bought not because they believed in the company but because everything went up.. we have that with houses now. I've read how values in San Diego and Boston area etc are up outrageous in 3 years.. thats not right, thats not normal thats a low interest rate fueled bubble waiting to burst.

Think about what your seeing in your neighborhood. I see these 'no money down' house loans. Interest only loans.. ARMs... Imagine yourself thinking I'm going to buy this overpriced house as a short term investment using a ARM or interest only loan. Now... interest rates boom up... housing market contracts and you have a loan for a house you can't possibly sell to get out of the loan amount for. We as a nation are setup for disaster.


The greatest problem with all of this is there reall isn't much that can be done by either Kerry or Bush. Infact if Kerry wins I really worry he will eat this mess and it will be a long time before we see another Democrat in the whitehouse.

[Jacobin]

10. THEY SAID THE SAME THING WHEN CLINTON WAS ELECTED

Sorry to shout, but these people have no interest in historical accuracy, even when it comes to their own grubby pocketbooks.

We were all warned the Clinton's economic policies would kill business, destroy the stock market and fork up the economy for decades.

I mean, WTF are these people smoking? Are their ideological bents so psychotic that they don't even care about their riches?

Jeeze, this is disgusting

[auburngrad82]

11. They said that with Clinton also and we got 8 great years from him

[Nay]

12. Too late. The markets have sucked big time for 3 years.

[noonwitch]

13. Considering it started tanking during the recounts...

and that the recession started shortly after Bush took office, I don't see how that would necessarily happen. Another terrorist attack will cause it to plummet, however.

[swag]

14. Actually, mean P/E for the S&P 500 since 1960 is about 17

which is exactly where the market is (and no, I'm not talking about Price/Forward Earnings, I am talking about price/2004 earnings). Price = 1100. 2004 Earnings (Thomson First Call Consensus as of this morning) = 65.50.

1100/65.50 = 16.8

Sorry, but that is not overpriced at all. And remember, P/E isn't everything anyway.

YOY historical return trendlines show that S&P "should" be at about 1150 (it's at about 1100).

The "fed model", which, granted, has been "broken" for a few years by low-inflation environment, shows the stock market to be "undervalued" by about 30%, but I think that's ridiculous.

Here's what Wharton's Jeremy J. Siegel said a few weeks ago in a valuation note (when the S&P 500 was at 1080):

"Based on actual earnings data and yields, this represents one of the
cheapest markets in quite a few years, although on a longer term
perspective stocks have, relative to bonds, been much, much cheaper. After the Second World War, earnings yields exceeded 10% while treasury bonds were at 2%. We will not go back to those days, to be sure. However stock prices could, of course, move down further and bond prices still higher."

Siegel and others have also studied the performance of the stock market under Dem and Rep administrations. The superior performance of the stock market under Democratic presidents is well documented. Coincidentally, the stock market's behavior this summer is what one would expect when a Republican incumbent is about to be handed his ass.

A note on investing: if you are in the stock market to get rich, you will very likely be disappointed. However if you are regular saver and prudent investor (diversified among a variety of asset classes), you are likely to be rewarded over the long run.