Obama Rising In Latest Gallup Poll

[Hope And Change]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109279/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-4Point-Advantage.aspx

[rucky]

1. Today, I believe the polls. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

8. Yeah, me too

:silly:

[Median Democrat]

2. Shhhh! - This Is A Secret! and - Polls Up and Down .. Wheee!

We were just getting rolling with the John McCain can lie his ass off so long as he attacks talking point.

My other take is that this is nice, but the polls will go and down in what I expect to be a close race. So, just as we should not throw ourselves off a bridge with each dip, we should not pop champagne with each bounce.

[27inCali]

3. these polls are bullshit

the patterns don't make any sense.

notice, many times, the fluctuations follow a weekly pattern.

Their techniques are flawed and do not paint a clear picture at all.

[tridim]

4. That's what happens when data is manipulated for political (GOP) purposes. nt

[Bleacher Creature]

5. I don't care.

I refused to panic yesterday when the polls gave us unfavorable results, so why would today be any different.

[DevonRex]

13. H&C lets us know what's going on every day with upcoming

Obama events and polls, just so we have the information.

I agree the polls are nothing to get particularly excited about or down about at this stage, but it's nice to have the info at our fingertips if we want it.

[Frances]

6. I like headlines like these

but I agree with another poster in another thread that the headlines should include the projected electoral vote. Obama is clearly ahead there. We don't want to get complacent, but we don't want Obama to be seen as weak either.

[TexasObserver]

7. Obama avg = 46.0 McCain avg = 43.5

I believe the Gallup poll generally favors McCain, so the real number is probably closer to an average of 42 for McCain and 47 for Obama.

That leaves 11 points, of which half will go to third party candidates, and the other half will split between Obama and McCain.

I think Obama will win by at least 5 points.

[Zynx]

10. I've been holding to a forecast of 6-7 points this election.

[Yavin4]

9. People Are On Vacation

They aint home to answer the pollster's phone call.

[DevonRex]

11. Thanks as always for the information you give us. Your posts are

the first things I look for every day.

I wish I could nominate you for something. :)

[Hope And Change]

12. Thanks JenniferZ.I would like to be Obama`s VP.What do you think?LOL.

:P

[DevonRex]

17. That is IT!!!! You're the best possible candidate for VP. Nobody

knows a bad thing about you. You're entirely supportive of the campaign. And I bet you look fabulous in black, for all those state funerals you know.

Hmm. I haven't ever looked at your profile. But surely you're the genius Jewish Latina western state absolutely fantastic governor who is also a veteran, right?

Oh, that was fun. :)

[Beregond2]

14. Oh dear.

What will the people on this board panic about today?

[Phx_Dem]

15. Is Obama's Gallup Lead Stable??

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/is-obamas-lead-in-gallup_n_117058.html

If your heart stops with every dip and bump registered by Gallup's daily tracking poll, here's some welcome news: the race is more stable than you might think.

Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz sends along a couple of interesting graphs that each plot Barack Obama's consistent lead over John McCain in the presidential race. In the first graph, each daily tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primary season is charted as a distinct data point, making for what looks like a wild ride:

(GRAPHS)

Having some fun with those who would over-interpret this graph, Abramowitz said: "Look--Obama is surging! OMG, Obama's support is collapsing. No wait, he's surging again! Oh no, he's collapsing again! What happened to that 9 point lead? McCain's strategy must be working. All is lost--the end is near! I knew we should have nominated Hillary!"

Then Abramowitz steps back a bit, averaging the Obama lead from each daily tracking poll into 10-day data points, stretching from June 5 to August 4. Which gives him a rather stable-looking 3-to-4 point lead for Obama:

(GRAPH)

Explaining the optical illusion, Abramowitz says: "When you group the tracking poll data into ten-day periods it becomes clear that support for the presidential candidates since the end of the primaries has been extremely stable, with Obama maintaining a modest but consistent lead, and that almost all of the day-to-day movement in the data is simply random noise."

Or, in a somewhat shorter version of his attitude toward the ups and downs of the daily graph that gets turned over each day on cable news shows, Abramowitz says: "Never mind."

[pansypoo53219]

16. i bet those mcinsain ads

helped.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

18. National tracking polls mean zilch

The election is contested state to state. I suspect BHO's electoral vote lead is a commanding one. This is going to be a replay of 1980, and the late breakers are going to go heavily for the nonincumbent party.