New Survey USA polls from Arkansas and Virginia

[Tarheelhombre]

Keep in mind Survey USA is a GOP pollster. Thanks to Dailykos.

Tue Aug 24th, 2004 at 02:09:56 GMT

Arkansas
Aug. 20-22 567 LV MoE 4.2

Bush 48 (49)
Kerry 47 (47)
Oth/Und 7 (n/t)

Virginia

Aug. 20-22 730 LV MoE 3.7

Bush 49 (50}
Kerry 45 (45)
Oth/Und 5 (n/t)

[Zynx]

1. SurveyUSA is usually inaccurate, but they have some consistent findings

here.

[democratreformed]

2. Throw 'em out! Zogby has Kerry ahead in Arkansas by over 2%.

Seriously, it's really close. We're gonna take Arkansas. We are gonna work our tails off to see that it is so.

[WI_DEM]

4. looks like Arkansas is within the margin of error

which is very positive for Kerry. I think he should get Bill Clinton and Wes Clark to camp out in the state. Those six electoral votes will be critical. Virginia is also more problematic, but doable. I think Zogby only has Bush ahead there by 2.

[democratreformed]

8. It is especially encouraging b/c both Mr. and Mrs. Bush AND Cheney

have all been here so many times in the last couple of years that I can't even remember how many it's been. The fact that it's so close even after all those visits really makes me optimistic.

I learned last weekend that we are going to have a coordinator in our county for the campaign (actually, they called it the coordianted campaign - meaning all the reps and senators, etc.) I turned in contact info as did my daughter. My daughter has already gotten a call from them but was out and her hubby took the message. They like her more than me b/c I'm OLD (he he). I hope they call again soon. I'm ready to get down to some REAL work. All my bumper stickers and signs is not enough.

On edit: There are consistent daily letters in praise of John Kerry in the The Arkansas Democrat (oops Republican) Gazette.

[fujiyama]

3. I wouldn't call them

a GOP pollster necessarily. Sometimes they are accurate. However, they've had two wacky CA polls.

I really am encouraged by those Arkansas numbers. VA has been extremely close all along.

[tedoll78]

5. Arkansas looks REALLY good.

If the conventional wisdom on undecided voters holds, that's GREAT.

I'm looking at things this way:
Kerry looks like he'll probably win all of the Gore states.
He looks really good right now in New Hampshire.
If he gets Arkansas, that's exactly 270EVs.

[fujiyama]

9. I think it's time

to get the Big Dawg there. I think he can help...along with Wes Clark.

[tedoll78]

10. Agree.

Have them basically live there for the next two months. Clinton will serve as a rallying factor for our base's GOTV operation, while also reminding voters of what good times in this country felt like. Clark, meanwhile, will be great at bolstering security credentials while helping pull-over disaffected GOPers.

[speedoo]

6. These states and others still being in play is the real story.

Bush should have locked up states like TN, NC, VA, Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada etc. a long time ago. That's the real measure of how much trouble he is in.

Kerry, with California, NY, NJ, the other New England states and Illinois basically has almost 200 EV's in the bag. Bush has maybe 100 in the bag.

The next two months are about Florida, Ohio and the states like Tennessee etc. Kerry will win Michigan, Minn., PA, Iowa, New Mexico. That gets him pretty close to 270, and he can then win with almost any of the contested states.

[faithnotgreed]

7. precisely. and a warm welcome to you. were glad youre here