New Hampshire "has shifted so hard toward Dems" that Senate race is emblematic of embattled GOP

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: The Hot Seat
Rematch in Senate Race Finds a New Climate
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
Published: August 4, 2008

NASHUA, N.H. — The maverick voters of New Hampshire love to keep politicians guessing. But this state, famous for its libertarian mojo, has shifted so hard toward the Democrats in recent years that no place may be more emblematic of a national political climate in which Republican incumbents like Senator John E. Sununu are battling to keep their jobs.

With Democrats gunning to expand their control of the Senate, Mr. Sununu, whose seat has been in Republican hands for 30 years, faces a grueling rematch against former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. It is a contest in which eagerness to replace President Bush looms large and voters say the battered economy is their chief concern. “I think everything needs change, a fresh start, fresh ideas,” said Meg Halley, 49, a software support technician, who stopped to greet Mrs. Shaheen on Main Street here one recent afternoon. “The economy, the environment, the price of gas, education, health care,” Ms. Halley said, listing her concerns. “It’s hard to say things are working.”

Such sentiments, reflected in opinion polls nationally, are fueling the Democrats’ belief that they can oust Mr. Sununu and run competitively in up to 10 other states in a quest to push their slim 51 to 49 Senate majority as close as possible to a filibuster-proof 60 seats — a goal they rank second only to Senator Barack Obama’s winning the White House. Since the first Sununu-Shaheen contest in 2002, New Hampshire Republicans have lost an 11-point edge among registered voters. Each party now has 31 percent of the electorate, with 38 percent undeclared. In the state’s presidential primaries this year, 62 percent of independents who voted chose a Democrat.

Still, beating Mr. Sununu will not be easy. At 43, he is the youngest senator and, many of his colleagues say, one of the smartest. An M.I.T.-educated engineer with an M.B.A. from Harvard, he may be a symbol of Republican vulnerability, but he also represents incumbency’s inherent advantages, not the least being his $5.1 million war chest. Mrs. Shaheen, 61, who in 1996 was the first woman elected as New Hampshire’s governor, is an archetype of the high-profile candidates that Democrats have put forward this year in hopes of seizing on a built-in numerical advantage: Republicans must defend 23 Senate seats, including 5 left open by retirements, while Democrats have just 12 seats up with not a single vacancy.

Besides Mrs. Shaheen, other battle-tested Democrats include two former governors, Mark R. Warner of Virginia and Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi, and Representatives Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Udall of New Mexico, who are cousins. And in Alaska, Mark Begich, the Democratic mayor of Anchorage, is now favored to knock out the Republican, Senator Ted Stevens, who was indicted by a federal grand jury last week....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/us/politics/04sununu.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all

[Raven]

1. Yay New Hampshire! I can feel it, taste it and smell it up here.

People are exaspirated and those who were loyal Repubs are mortified by their President and their Party. In about a month you are going to see the shit hit the fan up here when people begin to focus on what it's going to take to heat their homes this Winter. It is not going to be pretty for Sununu.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Thanks for your on-the-ground report, Raven! nt