Rasmussen, 8/4: Obama and McCain tied at 44%, with leaners McCain 47% Obama 46%

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Monday, August 04, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal (see other recent demographic highlights).

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). The presumptive Democratic nominee is addressing economic issues in Michigan this morning and Rasmussen Reports will release polling data at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on his key proposals (available for Premium Members now at the Daily Snapshot).

-snip-

[Hope And Change]

1. Oh nooooooooooooo

we are screweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed.

[Renew Deal]

6. I think you mean

We are screwn!!!

[bluestateguy]

2. Rasmussen cooks his numbers

Please.

[highplainsdem]

5. Rasmussen weights their polls to give Democrats a 10-point advantage, reflecting the greater number

of Democrats they find in their polling. I'll try to find one of those pages, but I think it's roughly 40% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 30% independents.

The race is even because McCain is getting most of the independents they're polling.

[bluestateguy]

8. Or so he says

but if you want to just take everything he says at face value that is your right.

He cooks his numbers. He has an agenda. He asks loaded questions, and disproportionately posts right wing columns on his home page (Barone, Morris, Novak, etc.) and only an occasional liberal column.

[highplainsdem]

3. Looks like the main problem is McCain's improving favorability rating & his lead among independents,

neither of which I understand. I expected the independent vote to be more evenly divided.

[geek tragedy]

4. We have to trash McCain to put a cork on that.

Sorry, but it's time to make this a knifefight instead of a polite debate.

[bunkerbuster1]

7. Bound to happen at some point.

National polls are the political equivalent of baseball's RBI: nice to have, not really indicative of performance.

I watch the state polls like a friggin' hawk by stopping by fivethirtyeight.com and http://electoral-vote.com/ and so far nothing has me real concerned. Stay cool, everyone.

[MidwestTransplant]

11. Usually the national numbers lead the state polls.

[AndyTiedye]

9. The Mighty Slime Machine is Killing Us

again.

[grantcart]

10. And yet the same report also shows a huge lead in the electora college

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.6 % chance of winning the White House

[optimisticin08]

12. We have to do our best.

I expect Mccain will have a bigger lead at the end of the week. We cant be depressed though.

[caledesi]

13. If Obama can beat the "clinton machine," McCain is cake! nt

[Doctor_J]

14. We're dropping like a rock.

With no media support it's going to be nearly impossible to get far enough ahead to overcome the voter purgers and other election theft components.

[GoesTo11]

15. Assume no media support. Then fight.

On the ground organizations have to do more than just great GOTV now. They have to make the sale. It's a tall order, but if done, a huge victory.

[jn2375]

16. Gallup 8/4 O-46% M-43%