Get out of the campaign bubble! McCain's attack ads WILL backfire. I have no doubt.

[beachmom]

I just read this article in the New York Times this Morning:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1217858501-B5F5XbxVE6Tquh00VwztUw

Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

This is not just It's the Economy, Stupid. It's also, "We need a serious President, stupid". McCain is trying to paint Obama as a superficial celebrity, but lucky for us, at the end of his ridiculous ads we hear his voice saying "I'm John McCain and I approve this message". That is going to come back and bite him, I guarantee you. But it will take time. Frankly, McCain has handed Obama a gift. Now Obama has evidence that McCain is not serious, most certainly not ready to lead, and is carrying on the same old same old game perpetrated by the GOP during the Bush years.

That is why the Obama campaign remains so calm, and why we must, too.

The handwringing I have been reading postulates two theories: these attacks are akin to the Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry AND that Barack Obama is reacting the same as John Kerry. Well, wrong on both counts.

What made the SBVT attacks so lethal, is that they had a plausible denial ability from the Bush campaign, because the group was a 527 and the spokespeople were Swift Boat vets. Now sure a lot of us knew Rove had a hand in it, but it wasn't the smoking gun of the ads ending with "I'm George Bush, and I approve this message". Also different is that the SBVT created a web of lies from something that had happened 35 years ago. When they were caught in one lie, they would make up a new one, and it took an incredible amount of pain staking time and patience to go through Naval records to debunk the lies (believe me, looking through the docs I have seen on line makes my eyes glaze over). They also used as Bill Moyers would call it "the blackest of lies", half truths. At the time of the attacks, it was after Kerry had accepted the nomination but since he was on the public financing system, he had no money to fight back, lest he spend vital funds needed during the fall campaign. No such situation like that exists today. Therefore, the Obama campaign is not reacting to a Swift Boat like attack; they are dealing with an attack akin to "Kerry looks French", which if that is where the GOP stopped, was quite silly and nonlethal. And if anything got to the point of a SBVT like attack, Obama has the money to respond accordingly.

I think it's easy for people to just compare what happened before, but the fact is 2004 is not 2008. Not even close. McCain had an opportunity to completely separate himself from the Bush legacy -- he chose not to. Therefore, I think things are looking good for us come the fall when polls start to have more meaning.

[babylonsister]

1. And to further support your argument, Obama is leading

among working class whites. Seems most people aren't swallowing the b.s. McCrabby is trying to shovel.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/poll_obama_leading_by_10_point.php

Poll: Obama Leading By 10 Points -- Among Working Class Whites!
By Greg Sargent - August 4, 2008, 9:44AM

Now this should put the "Obama's working class whites problem" meme to rest. Buried in the new Washington Post poll is a startling number:

But even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.

In an even bigger shocker, it turns out that Obama's advantage is partly driven by the fact that he's better on an issue of importance to these voters: Health care. Seven in ten working class whites polled say government should focus on getting people like them health insurance they can afford, a key Obama position.

If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a "McCain's working class whites problem" meme anytime soon?


Late Update: Atrios on Obama's "problem" with these voters: "Nobody could have predicted that it's as real as his Latino and Jewish voter problems."

[uponit7771]

8. JAW DROPPER!

[Ian_rd]

14. This doesn't seem to jive

Last I saw, Obama's lead over McCain is down to about 3 points. The white working class is certain to be Obama's toughest demographic. But if he's leading 10 points among them, then in what demographic is he suffering that takes him down to 2 or 3 points?

[babylonsister]

23. I think the problem is trusting in polls to begin with.

they're all skewed. None of them are accurate if they're not polling cell phone users, which I understand they're not.

[iconicgnom]

24. BINGO! You win!

[Ian_rd]

28. They're all skewed ...

... except for the one you like?

[babylonsister]

30. I posted an article; deal with it. nt

[Ian_rd]

31. Don't worry about me. I can deal. :)

I was just fishing for a reason why the poll results you prefer might be more veracious than others.

[babylonsister]

33. I posted it, doesn't mean I give more

merit to polls now than I did yesterday. But it's interesting that this poll proves he's doing a lot better than most people realize.
I still don't trust 'em.

[maxsolomon]

29. The Ancients.

They are the most reliable voting block in the nation. they are the most likely to hold racial (and age) predjudice. they are the most likely to make their decisions based on fear.

No offense intended, but it's JIBE. Like a sailing maneuver.

[Ian_rd]

32. Oh damn, I've been using "jjve" for a long time.

Thanks.

[geek tragedy]

15. That poll is three weeks old. n/t

[babylonsister]

22. It's in a story from today's WaPo. Can you confirm the age of the

poll with a link, or are you making that up? Why is the WaPo talking about a 3-week old poll?

[geek tragedy]

25. Based on data from June 18 to July 7.

Read it in the PDF of the poll.

[babylonsister]

26. Maybe no one bothered looking into it prior to now? Here's another

current story talking about this 'old' poll...

Defying expectations, low-wage workers prefer Obama
Posted August 4th, 2008


For quite a while, there were certain trends that political observers were simply supposed to accept as fact: Barack Obama would struggle to win support from Latino voters. And Jewish voters. And working-class, low-income voters. These were obvious “truths” that “everyone” knew.

Except none of these observations are holding up well. Obama is doing very well with Latino voters, Jewish voters, and according to a new Washington Post report, working-class, low-income voters.

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation’s low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new national poll.

Obama’s advantage is attributable largely to overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics. But even among white workers — a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November — Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.

Let’s not brush past this point too quickly — among low-income whites, Obama leads McCain by 10. To be sure, about one in six of the white workers remains uncommitted, but at least for now, Obama seems to have a sizable lead with a constituency that was rumored to be a lost cause up until fairly recently.


http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/16435.html

[LiberalAndProud]

2. A hearty recommend from me.

The ads are juvenile, I might say unworthy of McCain, except it's what I've come to expect from him -- petty and mean.

[geek tragedy]

3. Wish in one hand, shit in the other,

See which fills up first.

Hoping that the ads will backfire puts undue faith in the American voter, who has proven to be a sucker for that crap in 100% of all Presidential elections.

[beachmom]

9. It's not a wish. It is already done. McCain made himself look unpresidential.

You can never, ever take that back.

[geek tragedy]

16. Then why did he improve in the polls? n/t

[caledesi]

4. Not this time! - B, Obama NT

[ajh60]

5. Why Spend Millions on Ads That Don't Work?

You don't. Negative ads work. It creates a perception in the voters mind and then everything becomes filtered through that perception. Look, Kerry was a brave soldier but the add a bit of doubt through negative ads, throw in the traditional democratic sports pics of him windsurfing and the greatest line of all "I voted for it before I voted against it" and the voters take a pass. The war hero candidate by the end seems weak and wishy washy.

If you think that this can not happen again, you almost guarantee that it does. Obama now is being portrayed as a elitist, an empty suit and now the great political curse term, flip flop on issues. Do not under estimate the avg American voter (both sides of the aisle) who want this election spoon fed to them in simple terms. McCain understands this. Cynical? Yes. Does it work? Always. Obama must hit back hard and often or he might as well go windsurfing now.

[beachmom]

10. Gee, did you defeat the most powerful political machine in the country?

Because Obama did, and you know, I think I'll trust HIS judgment over yours.

[Peacetrain]

6. Absolutely Agree!! NT

[ajh60]

7. Yes But,

Often an ELECTED Republican

[Alter Ego]

11. I applaud you for pointing out once again that the SBVT people

were a 527, and thus Bush could distance himself from them and have the media believe it.

But these charges of WAAAAAHHHH BARACK'S A CELEBRITY TOO MANY PEOPLE LIKE HIM VOTE FOR ME JOHN MCCAIN I'M AN UNLOVED LOSER are straight from McCain's mouth.

Yes, the American people love negative ads--but very soon they're going to want to hear substance, and I'm sure that especially during the debates Obama will hammer this. "I was out talking to people--real people, Mr. McCain. I spoke to them about jobs, the economy, health care, energy, education. What were you doing? Comparing me to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton and telling people not vote for me because I'm too popular?"

[ajh60]

12. Soon they are going to want to hear substance?

That is a large assumption on your part. For all of Obama's strengths, right now he is, being defined by McCain. Let's not forget, McCain's war hero status is a big thing. The man suffered greatly for his country. That still carries alot of weight in this Country. Obama could easily be potrayed as a young man who is impatient, a man void of ideas that age etc brings...

I think that right now McCain has shown he can run a smart campaign, despite it being mocked. Barack, after his grand tour looks weaker than ever.
The other thing I dont understand is why we mock McCaain. Disagree fine. But what McCain has gone through as a pilot, a pow, a vet, has earned him a certain level of respect. We asked it for John Kerry and McCain deserves no less.

[blondeatlast]

17. What's so "smart" about McSame's campaign? Be specific.

It's pretty early to go negative; it makes McSame look very desperate--and he's spending money early on like water.

Do tell. Where's the "smart" from McSame?

DUers are smarter and savvier than most political wonks--make it really good, friend)

[ajh60]

19. This is why

I claim that he is running a smart campaign for the following reasons. First, he has with some success, made this a campaign about Obama. His inexperience, his flip flop on campaign finance, Town meetings that Obama said were a good idea, now reports of Barack "ducking" them along with drilling in the US etc. It does not matter what McCain's position, he has made it about Obama. The flip flopper, the man who will not debate.

Second, The Obama campaign is now on the defensive. They are reacting to the ads. They as challengers should be on the offensive not defensive. McCain got a rough hand getting the nomination the same year that Barrack did. However I do not under estimate him at all. Also Barack still has the so called Bradley effect to be concerned with. Obama should run this campaign as if he is 10 points down at ALL times. So far McCain gets a B for results, (tied polls) not for style.

[blondeatlast]

20. Thank you for your CONCERN. nt

[babylonsister]

34. Whose side are you on? Are you on the right board? Just askin'. nt

[Alter Ego]

21. Have you read the latest Newsweek article about the innards

of McCain's campaign?

Or is your CONCERN just so overwhelming that you can't bear it?

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. I think you are probably right.. At least I hope so

It is always very difficult to tell what the winning strategy would be in any election campaign or any advertisement promotion of any kind for
that matter.

We are hardly dealing with an exact science.

If these things were an exact science, every candidate with an expert team would always win. Every new product with top-notch professional advertising consultants would always succeed. And every expensive Hollywood movie with great promoters would always be a box office hit..

But I do agree that Sen. McCain has un-done the most attractive element of his public persona, the image of a nice old man who knows how to graciously reach out to the other side and taken away from himself the public image of a steady and calm hand. He has indeed made himself look most un-presidential.

My main reason for being confident that Sen. Obama will become President Obama is that simply all the factors that work against incumbency are working in favor of Sen. Obama. It would simply be historically unprecedented for it to go the other way. But, anything is possible.

[azmouse]

18. With the shit hitting the economic fan,

negative ads are not going to sway people.
All the bad stuff actually happening in Americans lives will influence the election.
Obama will win.
No worries here.

[jn2375]

27. Gallup 8/4 O-46% M-43%

I'd say the backfire is beginning

[ajh60]

35. This is not good.

With the economy the way it is, the McCain campaign all over the road, With (in theory) the Best Candidate the Dem's had in a long time and they are still only within the margin of error? Sorry, at this point Obama should have a double digit lead. I hope he wins. I think it would be a change of fresh air. However we have a history of messing up the presidential election. We could not defeat BUSH!

I think the debates will help but remember McCain is a fighter. He is old, grumpy, etc but tough with a compelling story of service and sacrifice. That still (as it should) plays well in America. Obama has simply got to show some toughness. He is appearing weaker than Kerry. I thought it was a joke when they talked about who had more "stones" HRC or Obama..Right now-I am thinking Clinton

[Alter Ego]

36. "Sorry, at this point Obama should have a double digit lead"

OK, I'm officially fucking sick of hearing this talking point and I'm going to strangle the next person who uses it.

And your overwhelming CONCERN is making me puke.