Prepare yourselves. Rasmussen will have McCain ahead of Obama today.

[jezebel]

It's on Drudge's page as developing.

Its 44-44, but with leaners its McCain 47, Obama 46.

[Connie_Corleone]

1. What, by one point?

It won't last.

[jezebel]

2. Oh I agree. I just know the media will trumpet it all day long as if the sky is falling for Obama.

[geek tragedy]

8. There's no excuse for us being behind. None.

It's incompetence to have a candidate as bad as McCain in a Democratic year beating us.

[tedoll78]

12. Careful..

You're gonna have a bunch of PollyAnnas latching-onto you for your negativity. :P

"..no excuse.."
"..incompetence.."

You've summed it up beautifully.

[geek tragedy]

14. Call it like I see it. He went Dukakis last week, and

he cratered in the polls as a result.

Hopefully, we won't see the campaign behave like that again.

[americanstranger]

30. Repeat after me: 'Within the 2% margin of error.'

That wasn't so hard, was it?

- as

[cliffordu]

33. The polls are as reliable as your faith in the candidate who stopped the Clinton

inevitablity machine. Remember that??

[Obamaniac]

37. Gallup and Rassmussen are historically pro-Republican

If you look at polls from previous elections, they always showed Republicans with higher leads than other polls and ahead when other polls showed Democrats ahead.

I think both polls had Republicans and Democrats closer in the mid-term election as well.

I'm really not buying this. That being said however, I don't know why Obama isn't running ads tearing McCain a new asshole and tying him to every fuck up of the last eight years.

I have always been a huge Obama supporter (obviously look at my screenname), but he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct and that worries me. He should be comparing McCain to everything from the idiotic tax cuts, to the war, the Katrina, to everything. Instead, he's allowing this election to become a referendum on himself, when it should be a referendum on the Republican Party and everything they stand for.

[Teaser]

25. We ain't behind

.

[geek tragedy]

3. Well, maybe that will wake the Obama campaign

out of Dukakis mode.

[tedoll78]

4. Agree.

At least their new "Pocket" ad is a step in the right direction. Nice to see some actual offense from the Obama team.

[geek tragedy]

6. They need to pound that message instead of just

throwing it out there and hoping the media runs with it.

The media won't do what they consider dirty work for Obama. He has to take the hammer to McCain himself.

[Gabi Hayes]

9. let's count all the times they show it/discuss it on the gasbag circuit.

do you think it'll be given the broad coverage the McCain ads have?

I watched Morning Joke today for about a half hour, and they didn't talk about it at all, just showed the Paris ad about SIX times....really, when they had Bob Herbert on, talking about the phallic images in it, juxtaposed with the shots of Britney/Paris

[geek tragedy]

10. The Obama campaign needs to make that attack

their central theme for the next week. They need to talk about it tomorrow, and the next day, and the next.

[cliffordu]

35. "The dukakas mode".....Is that the new meme??

If you know so much about how to win elections, why don't you offer your services to the candidate??

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. but still, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning the White House.

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning the White House."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[geek tragedy]

7. That'll take a deep plunge today. n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. I doubt it will be a deep plunge - but a probably a small dip of one or two points

The prediction Markets like Intrade who uses really money and Rasmussen which does not - are usually looking at long term political trends. And it is simply hard to find even a credible Republican political scientist who does not believe that Sen. Obama will probably win the election.

Intrade which I am sure have picked up the rumor by now is till trading at 61.5% that Obama will win the Presidency. Both Intrade and Rasmussen along with all the other prediction markets have been trading in that vacinity for the past two to three months.


http://www.intrade.com/

[Douglas Carpenter]

24. Following these poll results, Rasmussen Markets data now gives Obama a 60% chance of winning

http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=68256

[TexasObserver]

11. Rasmussen is carrying water for the GOP, like he does every election.

When a guy is in the tank for the GOP, he doesn't have to shade every poll. He does have to create a poll that he knows will show the Dem candidate poorly, some of the time, however.

The GOP toadies among pollsters are working overtime for the rightwingers who hire them for MSM.

[geek tragedy]

15. Is Gallup in the GOP tank too?

How about the polls that come out this week showing that Obama cratered last week?

[geek_sabre]

17. shhhhhh. nt

[TexasObserver]

20. make some effort to educate yourself

If you had any idea who pays Gallup most of their money, you wouldn't be so ignorant about why they would deliver a poll that helps the GOP.

[TexasObserver]

18. Gallup is in the tank and has been for a long time.

Who do you think pays Gallup 99% of its revenues? Major corporations, that's who. They partner with Gallup on business marketing.

This sudden downward trend started with a poll Gallup did especially for USAToday, a notoriously GOP rag.

Gallup is as dirty as any of the major media outlets.

[geek tragedy]

19. Were they in the GOP tank when they showed Obama

up by 9?

[TexasObserver]

21. yes, they were

Either you can't understand what you read, or you're being disingenuous.

They don't have to shade every poll. They only have to shade polls when a customer wants and needs it. They did so for USA Today.

If you are so ignorant you don't know how pollsters make their money, and you don't know how they work most of the time for major international business concerns, you would do well to spend less time defending another tool of the GOP and more time reading about how they are such a tool.

Here is a good starting point for understanding Gallup better:
http://www.gallupconsulting.ro/event/about-gallup.php
and
http://www.gallup.com/corporate/115/About-Gallup.aspx

Gallup, like Coca Cola or Ford, is merely a name of a company that sells something.

[BeyondGeography]

16. OMG, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE THIS IS HUGH I'M SERIES!!!1111!11!11!1!!!!

[cliffordu]

34. Really....."Mommie....What's a panic troll??"

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

22. Actually, it's tied. 44-44. When Ras pushes them to McCain, he gains a one point advantage (47-46)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%. This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[BeyondGeography]

23. Doomed

Totally.doomed.

[geek tragedy]

26. There is a difference between

"we're doomed" and "what the campaign doing is not working."

[Azathoth]

27. This poll is not good news

Obama is losing independents 52%-37% and he's also losing the energy debate.

The McCain campaign is going to interpret this as evidence that much of Obama's popularity with centrists and moderates is celebrity-driven and can be easily peeled away with negative campaigning. They're gonna go full swing with the attacks now.

[ajh60]

28. Are you Surprised

McCain has been setting the tone for this race ever since Obama made his overseas trip. He hit upon some ads that create a stir and now they have the American people thinking that this guy may be an empty suit. Unless he starts fighting back, it is going to get worse. I hope Democrats stop thinking we should win, because unless you fight, you don't win.

Laugh at McCain, Joke about him etc but do not under estimate his toughness and his ability to "do what it takes" to win. Right now McCain is taking it to him. Unless Obama responds, this result in Nov will be much like Kerry, and Gore, and Dukakis.....see a pattern here. Obama has proven he can take a punch, but in fight he has to throw some to.

[Upton]

29. I am growing increasingly concerned and disappointed

Obama is allowing McCain to define him with barely a whimper in protest. This campaign should be about the Bush Administration and the failed Republican policies of the last 7+ years. Instead the Obama campaign has allowed McCain to take the reins and define the campaign.

What are the Obama people doing? Wake up! It's time to stop playing defense and go on the attack. Nice guys finish last in this business.

[grantcart]

31. They also clearly say that Obama is way ahead

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 60.0 % chance of winning the White House.

[mvd]

32. Hmmm..

All those independents that were happy with an Obama candidacy took a 180 degree turn? I doubt it.

[TwilightGardener]

36. That's OK, because where does McCain go from here? He played the race card, the

"hates troops" card, the antichrist card, the empty-suit celebrity card, the uppity who-does-he-think-he-is card, the treason card (rather lose the war blah blah)--all in less than two weeks. All that mockery, ridicule, and terrible insinuations, and all he could do was knock Obama down a few points, down to his level. I have hope that Obama will start swinging back, HARD--show a little of that Chicago cold-blooded ruthlessness that brought him this far.

[azmouse]

38. Ignore the polls and get out and work for Obama.

You'll feel better.
Obama WILL win in November. I have no doubts.

[Puzzler]

39. Ok folks, here's the deal...

... if these new polls are accurate and do indeed reflect a trend favoring McCain, then this trend will be entirely due to the barrage of negative ads the McCain campaign has been airing. For fuck's sake, Rove could (and would) take down Jesus Christ if he was running for the Democrats. Unfortunately, negative campaign tactics work, and seem to be clearly working again. As others have pointed out, Rove and co. will make this campaign a referendum on Obama... and if this continues, McCain could just squeak in by default (and with the aid of vote caging, etc).

Also, how can the Dems be sure that their campaign strategy is not being wiretapped? Rather easy these days, by the look of it.

[truthisfreedom]

40. Telephone poll? Land lines are for losers. Polls that use them are meaningless.